我们正处于全球货币与财政双宽松周期，聪明资金已经悄悄布局把握新周期的机遇。 前 9 个月内地人在港买房总额近 1000 亿港元，其中香港豪宅新买家超 8 成为内地人。阿里巴巴前 CEO 张勇更是豪掷 5354 万港元买入一套四房豪 宅。 楼市依然是大部分人关心的核心资产，乃至投资消费和经济信心的先行指标。香港豪宅市场的反弹和复苏，正是聪明的 "大钱"提前布局的强烈信号。 一轮新的周期正在人群迷惘之际悄悄酝酿。 全球宽松周期信号显现 数年后回过头看， 2025 年是新一轮宽松周期的开始，但很多人都还没意识到这一点。 根据美国银行的统计显示，过去两年全球央行的降息次数已超过了 2007-09 年全球金融危机期间。尽管当前中性利率仍然在较高的位置，但 2026 年仍 有较强降息空间和预期。机构预计美联储在未来 12-18 个月降息空间还有 100BP ，中性利率有望回归到 3%-3.25% 昨夜的美联储会议纪要显示， 12 月 1 日起美联储将结束量化紧缩，停止对市场抛售资产，甚至在 2026 年可能重启量化宽松，来对冲美国如今的就业下 滑压力。 QE 对全球资产来说都是一件好消息，这意味着流动性宽松的利好将助推资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market showed initial signs of recovery in early 2025, but the momentum quickly faded, leading to a significant decline in transaction volumes and an increase in listings, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2][3]. Market Performance - In March 2025, Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume reached 21,300 units, surpassing the critical threshold of 20,000 units, but over 60% of these transactions involved sellers reducing prices by more than 15% or properties priced between 3 million to 5 million [1]. - By April 2025, transaction volumes dropped to 18,100 units, and further declined to 17,500 units in May, stabilizing around 16,000 units during the summer [2]. - As of early August 2025, the number of second-hand listings in Shanghai exceeded 200,000, a significant increase from less than 100,000 two years prior [3][4]. Price Trends - The average transaction period for second-hand homes extended from 180 days last year to 245 days this year, indicating a growing fear among sellers regarding the time it takes to sell properties [4]. - The average negotiation space for second-hand homes increased from 5.2% to 9.8%, yet buyers remain hesitant to make purchases [6]. - In the second quarter, housing prices outside the inner ring fell by 2.1%, while prices within the inner ring decreased by 0.6%, reflecting a downward trend in property values [6]. Luxury Market Dynamics - Despite the overall market decline, luxury properties priced above 30 million yuan saw a slight increase in transactions by 5% in the first half of 2025, indicating that high-end real estate remains a stable investment [4]. - Notable price reductions were observed in luxury properties, with some listings experiencing significant markdowns, such as a property that sold for 61 million yuan after being listed at 120 million yuan [4]. Rental Market Insights - The average rental price in Shanghai fell by 4.5% year-on-year in July 2025, with some long-term rental apartments offering incentives such as two months free rent for a one-year lease [7]. - The rental yield of 1.8% is not competitive compared to government bonds, raising questions about the viability of investing in rental properties [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market has shown signs of recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, particularly in the land transaction and luxury housing sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Housing Market Performance - In the first half of 2023, Shanghai's total housing transactions (both new and second-hand) reached 13.11 million square meters, the highest for the same period since 2022, representing a 17% year-on-year increase [1]. - The new housing market remained stable, with 3.26 million square meters sold, showing little change year-on-year, while the second-hand housing market was more active, with 9.85 million square meters (116,000 units) sold, marking a 24% increase year-on-year [1]. - The new housing price index increased by 2.7% month-on-month in the first five months of the year, while the second-hand housing price index rose by 1.3% since the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" [1]. Group 2: Luxury Housing Market - The luxury housing market in Shanghai saw robust demand, with 1,096 new housing units priced at 30 million yuan or above sold in the first half of the year, totaling 55.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 184% compared to 19.4 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]. - This trend indicates a strong release of demand for improved housing and reflects the purchasing power for high-end properties [2]. Group 3: Land Market Insights - In the first half of 2023, the total land transaction area in Shanghai was 2.15 million square meters, a 13% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The land transfer revenue reached 67 billion yuan, a 51% increase year-on-year, indicating a simultaneous rise in both land supply and prices, as well as an increase in the availability of high-quality land [2]. - The positive performance in the land market is seen as a key indicator of investment confidence in the real estate sector, with both land and luxury housing markets focusing on "quality" [3].

Group 1 - The Shanghai real estate market has shown a recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year, with significant performance in the land and luxury housing markets [1][2] - In the first half of the year, Shanghai's total housing transactions reached 13.11 million square meters, the highest for the same period since 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 17% [1] - The luxury housing market saw a substantial increase, with 1,096 units sold at prices of 30 million yuan and above, totaling 55.3 billion yuan, a 184% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [2] Group 2 - The land market in Shanghai recorded a total transaction area of 2.15 million square meters in the first half of the year, a 13% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The land transfer revenue reached 67 billion yuan, a 51% increase year-on-year, indicating a rise in both supply and quality of land available [2][3] - The positive performance in the luxury market and land transactions reflects strong investment confidence and a shift towards high-quality residential demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai is experiencing significant growth, leading to an increase in overall housing prices, despite a general decline in new residential sales prices in other first-tier cities [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.2% month-on-month, while Shanghai saw a 0.7% increase, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1]. - The strong performance of Shanghai's new housing prices is attributed to the influx of high-end properties, which has attracted high-net-worth individuals and boosted market activity [1][4]. - The average price of new homes in Shanghai reached a historical high of 90,691 yuan per square meter in May, marking a 24.8% month-on-month increase [4]. Group 2: Luxury Market Dynamics - The luxury market in Shanghai has become a norm for "daylight" sales, with several high-end projects experiencing overwhelming demand, such as the Sunac Shanghai No. 1 Courtyard, which had over 200 groups of buyers for 128 units [2]. - The number of luxury homes priced above 50 million yuan sold in the first half of the year reached 518 units, double that of the same period in 2024 [3]. - The luxury market's appeal is increasing due to a shift in investment towards assets that offer value preservation and risk defense amid broader market adjustments [3]. Group 3: Land Costs and Future Outlook - The cost of land in Shanghai is rising, with core area land prices surpassing 120,000 yuan per square meter following the removal of price caps on land auctions [5]. - The upcoming land auction in July is expected to include several prime residential plots, with some analysts predicting that prices could exceed 200,000 yuan per square meter [6]. - Despite the active luxury market, there remains a distinction between new and second-hand homes, as well as between luxury and affordable housing, indicating a segmented market response [6].