Group 1 - The junk bond market is signaling optimism similar to the U.S. stock market, with the spread between junk bonds and government bonds narrowing to a historical low of approximately 2.88 percentage points, the lowest since 2021 [1][2] - Data from FactSet indicates that the iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF achieved a total return of 5% in the first half of 2025, while the SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) recorded a total return of 4.8%, with a monthly return of 2% in June, marking the best monthly performance since July 2024 [2] - Nicholas Colas suggests that the current narrowing of spreads reflects a high level of economic confidence, similar to that seen in 2021 during strong fiscal and monetary support [2] Group 2 - Despite concerns over tariff policies, industry experts believe the impact on the U.S. economy is manageable, and tariffs are not expected to trigger a recession [3] - The current yield on U.S. junk bonds is approximately 7%, but it may fluctuate with changes in spreads, indicating a tighter credit market compared to pre-2008 financial crisis conditions [3] - Michael Chang expresses a cautious outlook on the retail sector due to exposure to tariffs, while favoring defensive high-yield sectors such as healthcare, food and beverage, and utilities to mitigate potential volatility [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. junk bond market is showing optimistic economic signals despite recent uncertainties related to tariffs, indicating that investors do not expect a recession [1][3] - The current spread between high-yield corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries is approximately 2.88 percentage points, lower than any point in 2021, reflecting strong market confidence [3] - The performance of the high-yield bond market aligns with trends observed in large-cap U.S. stocks, suggesting a bullish sentiment among bond investors, who are typically more cautious than stock market participants [3] Group 2 - The total return for iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG.US) was 5% for the first half of 2025, while SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK.US) recorded a return of 4.8% [4] - In July, the junk bond market experienced a slight pullback due to renewed focus on tariff developments, particularly following announcements of new tariffs on imports [4] - The average annual yield in the U.S. high-yield bond market is currently around 7%, although this yield may fluctuate with changes in spreads [5]

麦卡洛补充称："美国不会陷入经济衰退，促使我在美国债券市场、特别是美元市场做出决定的两个主 要因素都在上升。" 他并非断言美债收益率将持续走高。"试图宣告美国国债终结的人注定被埋葬，"他指出。但鉴于未来三 到四个季度没有衰退，他认为美联储不会降息，因此麦卡洛对不持有美国政府债务感到安心。 "我不否认美国债务和财政赤字存在风险，"麦卡洛表示，"但我认为10年期美国国债收益率不会跌破 4.43%，而三周前我还认为可能轻松跌破4%。" 周四，特朗普政府的税改法案在众议院获得通过，这项法案引发了有关美国预算赤字和美元吸引力的担 忧，导致股票和债券投资者陷入迷雾。 然而，对于投资服务公司HedgeyeRiskManagement首席执行官基思·麦卡洛（Keith McCullough）而言， 债券市场和货币市场传递的信息清晰明确。 麦卡洛表示："我不持有任何美国国债，且一直将此前最大仓位的黄金减持至最低水平，主要驱动因素 是美国经济增长和通胀正在上升。" "我们已基本剔除今年所有降息预期，"他补充道，"美联储或许能侥幸实施一次降息，我不知道。但降 息幅度不会像投资者想象或期望的那么大。" 麦卡洛持有部分固定收益资产，具 ...