Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains unchanged at 36,045 kilograms as of August 7 [1][2] - The main gold futures contract opened at 782.28 yuan per gram, with a high of 785.00 yuan and a low of 781.08 yuan, closing at 785.02 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% [1] - Trading volume for the day reached 187,081 contracts, with an increase in open interest by 2,418 contracts, totaling 217,630 contracts [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategists noted that the current relative expensiveness of five-year U.S. Treasury bonds is rare, except during periods when the Federal Reserve lowered the overnight loan rate target to 0% [2] - The five-year Treasury bond has been the best-performing segment of the U.S. Treasury market this year, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - Ongoing inflation and the trend of the U.S. budget deficit are exerting upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields, with market expectations suggesting a potentially more accommodative policy path after mid-next year following changes in the Federal Reserve leadership [2]

【导读】美股部分重要指数创新高，黄金日内突破 3400 关口 见习记者 储是 美东时间 7 月 21 日（周一），标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数收盘创下历史新高。截至收 盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌 0.04% ，报收于 44323.07 点；纳斯达克指数上涨 0.38% ，报收 于 20974.17 点；标普 500 指数上涨 0.14% ，报收于 6305.60 点。 大型科技股涨跌不一 黄仁勋近日再度减持 谷歌 A 涨 2.72% ，亚马逊涨 1.43%，Meta 涨 1.23% ，苹果涨 0.62% ，微软大致收 平，特斯拉则收跌 0.35% ，英伟达跌 0.60% 。本周，美股科技巨头将陆续发布财报。 美国证券交易委员会（ SEC ）公布的最新文件显示，当地时间 7 月 18 日，黄仁勋出售了 7.5 万股英伟达股票，按照当天的股价计算，价值约达 1294 万美元。在此之前，从 6 月 20 日至 7 月 17 日，黄仁勋已累计减持 135 万股，合计套现 2.15 亿美元。 黄金收复 3400 关口 马斯克旗下脑机接口公司 Neuralink 于 22 日宣布， " 本周末我们成功完成了 P8 和 P ...

贝森特预计美国2025财年预算赤字将接近7% 智通财经6月12日电，美国财长斯科特·贝森特指责民主党造成了今年可能再度异常庞大的预算赤字。他 预计本财年赤字与GDP之比将介于6.5%至6.7%。这将标志着这一比重连续第三年超过6%。根据财政部 的数据，2024财年的赤字率为6.4%，而2023财年则为6.2%。财年持续到9月底结束。 ...

在一些经济学家看来，重返白宫后的"特朗普2.0时代"国债发行与预算赤字将比官方预测高得多，主要因特朗普领导的新一届政府以"对内减税+对外加征关 税"为核心的促经济增长与保护主义框架，叠加愈发庞大的预算赤字与美债利息，美国财政部发债规模可能被迫在"特朗普2.0时代"比花钱如流水的拜登政府 愈发扩张，加之"逆全球化"之下中国与日本可能大幅减持美债，"期限溢价"势必较以往愈发高企。 智通财经APP了解到，全球投资者们对长期限美国政府债的抵触情绪，正在让本应"例行公事"的美国国债拍卖事件成为华尔街投资机构乃至全球投资者本周 最期待的经济大事件之一。 随着投资者们对于美国预算赤字将因"大而美"法案所包含的庞大减税举措以及未来愈发庞大债息支出而持续升温，对于美债的需求也在趋于疲软，近期美债 拍卖收益率以及标售倍数持续低于市场预期。因此本周长期限美债拍卖可能令"期限溢价"大幅飙升，进而使得曾经令投资者们闻风丧胆的"期限溢价"重返聚 光灯之下，可能推动股债市场再度剧烈震荡。 据了解，美国财政部周四将发行220亿美元、期限长达30年的美国长期限国债，作为美国政府常规融资的一部分。不过，由于市场对于长期限美债(即10-30 年期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk publicly criticized the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, calling it "disgusting" and urging voters to oppose it, highlighting a significant shift in his stance after previously supporting the Trump administration [1][3][5]. Group 1: Musk's Criticism and Political Impact - Musk's sudden opposition to the tax reform bill comes after he served as a "special government employee" for 130 days under the Trump administration, marking a stark contrast to his earlier support [5]. - His comments have amplified existing divisions within the Republican Party, particularly among Senate hardliners who oppose the current version of the bill unless substantial spending cuts are made [6][7]. - Musk's influence is noted as significant, with Republican senators acknowledging his voice carries weight in the ongoing political debate [9]. Group 2: Legislative Context and Challenges - The "Big Beautiful" bill is facing critical tests in the Senate, where Republican support is less certain compared to the House, where nearly all but three Republicans back the bill [6]. - The bill's passage is contingent on maintaining Republican unity, as Democrats are expected to oppose it unanimously, allowing for only a few defections among Republicans [9]. - The bill aims to raise the U.S. debt ceiling by $4 trillion, with concerns about potential default looming if the debt ceiling is not raised by August [12].

Group 1 - The tax reform bill passed in the House raises concerns about the U.S. budget deficit and the attractiveness of the dollar, leading to uncertainty among stock and bond investors [1] - Hedgeye Risk Management's CEO Keith McCullough believes that the bond and currency markets are sending clear signals, stating that he does not hold any U.S. Treasury bonds and has reduced his gold holdings to a minimum due to rising U.S. economic growth and inflation [1] - McCullough asserts that the U.S. will not enter a recession, and he anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the next three to four quarters, which gives him confidence in not holding U.S. government debt [1] Group 2 - McCullough acknowledges the risks associated with U.S. debt and fiscal deficits but believes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will not fall below 4.43%, contrary to his previous belief that it could easily drop below 4% [1] - The company holds some fixed-income assets, specifically high-yield corporate bonds, and McCullough indicates that the lack of volatility in high-yield bond spreads suggests no imminent widespread recession or decline in corporate profits [1] - McCullough expects the economic outlook to improve from Q4 to Q1 of the following year, which should provide more support for the dollar, while he still recommends going long on the euro, Australian dollar, and European equities, particularly in Germany, Spain, and Belgium [1] Group 3 - McCullough's model suggests that the worst period for the dollar has passed, as he believes the U.S. economy will not enter a recession and inflation will begin to rise [2] - He indicates that all rate cut expectations for the year have been largely eliminated, and any potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve will not be as significant as investors might expect [2]

Group 1 - The Kuwait Investment Authority's Managing Director, Sheikh Saud Salim Abdulaziz Al Sabah, emphasizes a commitment to long-term investments in the U.S. but warns about the diminishing time for capital returns to investors [1] - Donald Trump Jr. defends the tariffs imposed by his father as a means to promote U.S. economic growth and hints at a potential future presidential run [1] - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin expresses greater concern over the U.S. budget deficit than trade issues, urging for "fiscal repair" [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has fallen to a two-week low, with traders focusing on the G7 meeting for any signs of the Trump administration's desire for a weaker dollar [1] - Bloomberg's dollar spot index declined by 0.4% for the third consecutive day, indicating a bearish trend in the dollar's performance [1][3] - Japan's Finance Minister, Taro Aso, is seeking opportunities for currency negotiations with US Treasury Secretary Scott Posen, suggesting a potential openness from the Trump administration towards dollar depreciation [1] Group 2 - Citigroup predicts that the dollar may further decline after the G7 meeting, as global leaders discuss exchange rate policies as part of trade negotiations with the US [4] - Concerns over the US budget deficit are putting pressure on the dollar, with discussions among lawmakers about a tax cut plan that could result in a $4.5 trillion revenue loss over the next decade [4] - Moody's recently downgraded the US debt rating due to the inability to curb the trend of large fiscal deficits, which adds to the bearish sentiment towards the dollar [4]