Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

相较于单券买入策略，科创债ETF具有低费率、低交易成本、透明度高、分散度高、"T+0"高效申赎等 优势，有利于分散投资组合风险、提高资金使用效率。 今日债市小幅震荡，股债跷跷板效应明显。截至上个交易日，科创债ETF鹏华近8天获得连续资金净流 入，最高单日获得9.99亿元净流入，合计"吸金"37.95亿元，日均净流入达4.74亿元。 国联民生证券认为，2026年债市投资主要关注三方面的变化：1.权益市场上涨情况；2.央行货币政策宽 松情况；3.通胀回升情况。权益方面，当前市场看涨情绪较强，风险偏好提高会同步带动利率上升，主 要关注是否会有持续上涨势头，这需要观察经济数据能否支撑股市；货币政策方面，主要是考虑宽松政 策是否会前置发力，如一季度是否会有降息，除此之外，货币政策的时间点的选择以及全年降息幅度的 大小也会对债市产生明显影响；通胀方面，关键是看通胀能否回升以及回升斜率。 国盛固收团队指出，节后预计债市将有所修复。一方面，节前最后一天落地的公募费率新规较征求意见 稿明显缓和，这或将带来赎回压力明显改善，助力债市修复。另一方面，新的一年银行指标压力缓和， 整体配置力量增强，或将助力债市修复。 作为首批10只科 ...

步入2026年，债市将如何演绎？业内专家指出，2026年，债市仍将处于多空因素交织博弈的复杂环境中 ——宽松货币政策与经济弱复苏的核心矛盾将主导市场走向。 就偏多因素而言，货币政策适度宽松的基调将构成核心支撑。来自中金公司的研究观点认为，若2026年 美国进一步降息，中国汇率约束将有所减弱，为应对人民币升值压力，不排除管理层加快货币政策放松 节奏的可能，即货币市场利率存在补降空间，这将直接推动债券收益率曲线牛市变陡。 华西证券宏观团队则表示，2026年一季度靠后时段，财政将面临政府债净发行高基数压力，彼时货币政 策加力的可能性料上升，预计2026全年一至三季度的降息幅度将达20BP，为债市提供阶段性交易窗 口。 新华财经上海1月4日电 2025年四季度，债市呈现出明显的结构性分化特征，利率债与信用债走势逐步 背离。2026年债市会否延续弱震荡格局？哪些因素将左右债市表现？利率债和信用债能否继续布局？ 利率修复回暖信用利差分化 刚过去的2025年末，利率债市场走出了全年"M"型震荡格局的收尾修复行情。 自2025年三季度多重利空因素推动债市出现熊陡回调后，四季度利率债市场便开启了震荡修复走势，短 端利率修复幅度 ...

事件点评 PMI 超预期回升对 2026 年市场的启示 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 12 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布2025 年 12 月采购经理指数运行情况，制造业PMI为 50.1% （前值为 49.2%，下同），环比提升 0.9pct；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2%（49.5%）， 环比提升 0.7pct；综合 PMI 为 50.7%（49.7%），环比提升 1.0pct。 12 月制造业 PMI 超季节性、超预期大幅回升至 50.1%，创 4 月以来新高 值得注意的是，12 月制造业 PMI 的季节性是环比回落，2016-2024 年 12 月制造 业 PMI 环比回落均值为-0.3%，而 2025 年 12 月则是大幅环比回升 0.9%，为 2012 年以来最大的 12 月环比回升幅度。 1、12 月 PMI 回升，或与 10 月政策加码有关 10 月 PMI 大幅回落，表明经济阶 ...

黄金方面： 12月23日，美国公布了第三季度GDP数据，公布值为4.3%，较前值3.8%有显著增长。然而市场认为，若剔除季度数据的异常波 动，实际GDP增长率更接近2%。这一数据表现尚可但算不上出色，加之美国失业率持续攀升，经济增长并未创造更多的就业岗 位。 针对远超预期的GDP数据，华尔街认为，未来经济可能会出现过热的情况，市场关注的焦点从经济衰退的风险，开始转移至经 济过热、通胀回升的风险。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，GDP数据公布后，黄金市场短线下行，并没有改变黄金的上升趋势；受到多方因素 影响，黄金恐将进入高位震荡。 当下原油市场的主线逻辑逐渐清晰，2026年第一季度，OPEC+没有继续增产的计划，在地缘风险的支撑下，加之美国经济逐步 向好，可能会促进油价上涨。 技术面：昨日收小阳线。1小时级别，MACD显示多方仍占据市场优势，价格在60/120日均线上方运行，市场短期上升趋势延 续。今日下方关注57.70美元的支撑，上方关注59.20美元的压力。 美元指数： 美国第三季度实际GDP数据惊艳录得4.3%，远远超出市场预期。同时，个人消费支出数据，也明显强于市场预期。受此影响， 美联储1月降 ...

Group 1 - The expected low interest rate environment is changing, impacting investor behavior, leading to a slowdown in both entity financing and financial expansion [6] - Financial institutions such as wealth management and insurance are altering their asset allocation strategies, influenced by changes in tax policies and new fund regulations [6] - The mainstream investment strategy in the bond market is shifting from "trading" to "coupon collection," with bond prices expected to experience sideways fluctuations and slight weakening [6] Group 2 - In 2025, the bond market experienced a review where the central bank shifted from tightening to loosening, causing fluctuations in the bond market [9] - The first quarter saw the central bank pause government bond purchases, emphasizing the need to guide financial institutions to explore effective credit demand, which raised funding rates [9] - The second quarter faced uncertainties due to tariff issues, leading to a decline in export expectations and a subsequent rise in bond prices as the central bank adopted a more accommodative stance [9] Group 3 - As of November 2025, the net financing amount of credit bonds reached the highest level in five years, with local government bonds balancing out under financing constraints [14] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds approached 13 trillion yuan, with a net inflow exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust primary supply [16] - The financing increment of credit bonds is primarily driven by industrial entities, particularly in public utilities and non-bank financial sectors, while local government financing is expected to stabilize [16] Group 4 - The credit spread has been narrowing, with the strategy of holding credit bonds for coupon collection being favored in 2025 [17] - The yield on non-financial bonds has generally fallen below 2%, making it challenging to find high-yield bonds above 2.2% [17] - The overall yield of credit bonds is fluctuating at low levels, with a widening term spread, indicating difficulty in finding high-yield targets in the industrial bond sector [20] Group 5 - The convertible bond market is experiencing a decline in issuance and a decrease in the number of outstanding bonds, leading to a shrinking market [25] - The performance of the convertible bond market improved in 2025, with the index achieving a 17.12% increase, indicating strong demand despite a shrinking supply [34] - The aging characteristics of convertible bonds are becoming more pronounced, which may deter some investors but could also enhance scarcity in the short term [26] Group 6 - The changing expectations regarding low interest rates are leading to a decrease in banks' enthusiasm for participating in bond investments [50] - In 2025, banks showed a consistent lack of interest in the bond market, with funds acting independently, resulting in a historical high duration for funds without corresponding low interest rates [54] - The reduction in credit and the increasing reliance on certificates of deposit by large banks are contributing to a widening gap in government bond supply and demand [56]

华西证券指出，如果将2025年的财政与货币政策节奏线性外推，债市内部或难形成明确的共识方向，市 场对通胀回升的担忧和"严监管"的推进，2026年债市可能延续25年偏弱的震荡格局，这也是当前市场较 为一致的预期。然而，一致性预期总是容易被打破。2026年可能变化的方向：一是宽财政向稳财政的转 变，如果经济增速目标下降，对应的财政赤字率也可能同步回落，由此对债券市场来说，政府债的供给 压力减轻；二是稳货币能否过渡为宽货币，进而推动债市表现超出预期。货币政策主动发力，可能需要 一些自下而上的风险事件发酵，如果没有外部因素的刺激，货币政策可能还是以稳为主。2026全年债市 行情的关键，是等待货币政策的实质性变化。从节奏上看，或是"前慢后快"，一季度（或春节前）蛰 伏，等待货币政策的变化，及消化潜在的通胀担忧，二、三季度出击，进而容易形成全年低点。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

周二，澳洲联储在今年最后一次会议上宣布维持利率不变。2025年下半年通胀回升，打破了市场对进一 步降息的希望，此前自今年2月以来，澳洲联储已累计降息75个基点。 利率市场和大多数经济学家现在认为，澳洲联储的宽松周期已经结束。一些分析师指出，如果通胀压力 持续上升，央行可能在明年2月就被迫加息。Domain首席经济学家尼古拉·鲍威尔表示，利率预期的回转 可能有助于缓解过去一年住房市场价格快速上涨的压力。 最新数据表明，通胀风险正转向上行，但仍需更多时间评估通胀压力的持续性。私人需求正在复苏。劳 动力市场状况仍略显紧张，但预计将进一步温和走弱。因此，委员会认为有必要保持谨慎，并随着数据 发展不断更新前景判断。 委员会将密切关注数据及前景与风险的变化，以指导未来决策。在此过程中，将重点关注全球经济和金 融市场的动向、国内需求趋势，以及通胀和劳动力市场的前景。委员会将聚焦其使命，即实现物价稳定 和充分就业，并将采取其认为必要的措施达成目标。 政策声明全文 今日的政策决定为全体一致通过。 多项指标显示，劳动力市场状况依然略显紧张。过去一年失业率逐步上升，就业增速放缓。然而，劳动 力未充分利用率仍处于低位，调查中的产能利 ...

Macro Research - The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential diminishing multiplier effect from durable goods subsidies, with price recovery largely dependent on effective fiscal input, particularly towards consumption and services [2][4] - In a neutral scenario, both CPI and PPI are expected to see a moderate upward shift [2][4] Retail and Service Research - The company Emei Mountain A is expected to benefit from the renovation of the Golden Summit cableway and the construction of Leshan Airport, enhancing the scenic area's capacity and visitor experience, which will drive traffic growth and profit recovery [2][6] - The renovation of the Golden Summit cableway will increase its capacity from approximately 1,200 people per hour to 3,200 people per hour, representing a 167% increase, which will alleviate peak waiting times and enhance visitor spending [8] - Leshan Airport is projected to facilitate tourist growth, with a designed annual throughput of 2.6 million passengers, expected to connect with existing highway networks to create a direct transport corridor to major scenic spots [8] Company Coverage - Emei Mountain A is rated as "Buy" with a target price of 20.65 CNY, compared to the current price of 14.46 CNY, reflecting a market capitalization of 761.9 million [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 251 million CNY, 308 million CNY, and 346 million CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.48 CNY, 0.59 CNY, and 0.66 CNY [7] - The company has established a diversified business ecosystem through a full industry chain layout, including ticket sales, cableway operations, hotels, and various derivative businesses [7] Market Potential - Emei Mountain's visitor numbers were 4.67 million in 2024, significantly lower than other comparable sites, indicating substantial room for market growth through improved transportation and product upgrades [9] - The company has demonstrated strong unit visitor value conversion capabilities, with total tourism revenue of 1.013 billion CNY in 2024, higher than that of Jiuhua Mountain [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the outlook for domestic inflation in 2026, focusing on the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends, highlighting the need for effective fiscal policies to stimulate demand and support price recovery [2][3][4]. Group 1: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has recently returned to the 1% range, indicating a positive signal, but this is attributed to specific factors rather than a broad recovery in domestic demand [2]. - The sustainability of "old momentum" is questioned, with expectations for increased fiscal support in 2026, particularly towards the service sector, but concerns about diminishing multiplier effects are raised [2][3]. - The direction of the price base is contingent on effective fiscal spending to create a positive demand cycle, emphasizing the need for structural changes in fiscal policy rather than mere continuation of existing measures [3]. Group 2: 2026 Inflation Projections - It is anticipated that the core CPI will shift focus from physical consumption driven by "trade-in" policies in 2025 to the recovery elasticity of "service CPI" in 2026, dependent on effective domestic demand policies [4]. - The PPI is expected to experience a recovery influenced by the interplay between real estate sector challenges and supply-side reforms, with potential for gradual improvements as policies are implemented [4].