Core Viewpoint - The market has already priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, but various economic indicators suggest that a rate cut is not guaranteed [1] Group 1 - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that inflation is expected to rebound in the third quarter [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise moderately [1] - The impact of extended tariffs in August is expected to lead to mild price increases [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing likelihood that former President Trump may intervene with the Federal Reserve, potentially accelerating the rate cut process [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "can cut or not cut" phase, indicating that confirmation of a September rate cut requires more data [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8% [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1%, slightly higher than expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] - The main contributor to the CPI increase was the housing index, which rose by 0.2%, while food prices remained stable and energy prices fell by 1.1% [1] Group 2 - Following signs of weakness in the U.S. job market, traders have increased bets on a rate cut in September, with a 90.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [3] - The latest employment data showed only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 100,000, raising concerns about the credibility of the data after the dismissal of the labor statistics chief [3] - The market anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, with some investors speculating on a larger cut of 50 basis points in September [3]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In July, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12.4%[2] - The average subway passenger volume in the first week of August increased by 0.48% year-on-year but decreased by 3.65% month-on-month[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1982.2 in the first week of August, up 8.5% month-on-month and 14.9% year-on-year[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of August 9, the average operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.24 percentage points to 83.63%[2] - The average operating rate of rebar was 44.12%, up 0.84 percentage points month-on-month[2] - The average daily coal consumption of power plants in July was 5.305 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] Price Performance - As of August 8, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.53% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of key monitored vegetables increased by 3.21%[2] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.87% as of August 7, while the prices of coking coal, iron ore, and rebar increased by 8.80%, 2.62%, and 0.38% respectively[2] International Macro - Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in July, indicating a slight decline in demand[3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased to 226,000 but did not reach levels that would significantly raise the unemployment rate[3] - The Eurozone services PMI remained stable at 51.0, with Germany at 50.6 and France at 48.5[3] Risks - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence, and unexpected geopolitical changes[3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industries is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market's recent rise is driven by long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift to consumption and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies benefiting upstream cycle sectors, and short - term capital inflows due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit - loan data. Wait for clearer policy and market trends before adjusting positions [2]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong as the market - driving effect of anti - involution policy expectations since July is over, and the bond market is likely to have a repair market [3]. - Gold is in a window supported by both "rising interest - rate cut expectations" and "geopolitical uncertainties" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. For silver, low - buying and holding is a good strategy [4]. - Most commodities in the steel, coal, and coke sectors are expected to move in a narrow or wide - range oscillation in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy expectations, and cost changes [6][7][9]. - Copper prices may be weak but the expected peak season in September will limit the decline. Nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by market sentiment and will oscillate. Aluminum - related products' prices face downward pressure due to supply increases, while industrial silicon and polysilicon have different trends and investment opportunities [14][15][19]. - Oil prices are under pressure. High and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Asphalt is supported by low supply and inventory but is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, polyolefins, PVC, urea, soda ash, and glass all have their own supply - demand characteristics and are expected to have different short - term price trends [24][25][27]. - Protein meal prices are rising, and a long - position strategy is recommended. Most oils are strong, and a long - position strategy is also suggested. Livestock and poultry products such as pigs and eggs have complex supply - demand situations and are expected to oscillate. Corn has a short - term rebound but a mid - term weakening trend [39][41][42]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak trend. Cotton's 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the medium - long term [46][49]. 3. Summary by Category Financials - **Stock Index**: A - share market was flat yesterday. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is significant. The stock market's rise is driven by multiple factors. Wait for clearer trends before adjusting positions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rose slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. Gold is supported by multiple factors, and silver can be held through low - buying [4]. Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke - **Rebar**: Futures prices were slightly down. Production increased, inventory rose, and demand improved slightly. Exports remained high. It is expected to move in a narrow range [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices fell. Supply decreased, demand was mixed, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected by inspections, and demand was strong. It is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected，and demand was good. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Both futures prices weakened. They are affected by policies, cost, and supply - demand factors and are expected to oscillate widely [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices were slightly down. Affected by macro factors, inventory changes, and weak demand, copper prices may be weak but limited by the peak - season expectation [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices fell slightly. Affected by inventory, price differentials, and supply - demand, they are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Aluminum - related Products**: Prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy were weak. Supply is expected to increase, and prices face downward pressure [16][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was strong, and polysilicon was weak. There are different investment opportunities [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures prices rose. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is changing. The market focuses on production uncertainties [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell for six consecutive days. Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand, oil prices are under pressure [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Asphalt**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply may decrease, demand is expected to improve, and it is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Rubber**: Futures prices rose. Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX, PTA, MEG**: Prices of related products rose slightly. Affected by cost and demand, PTA may be under pressure, and MEG may adjust weakly [29][30]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate as inventory is expected to increase slightly in August with limited import and stable demand [31]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will recover in August, and the upside is limited without significant cost increases [32]. - **PVC**: Market pressure eases, inventory decreases slowly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [33][34]. - **Urea**: Futures prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was weak, and the Indian tender can relieve some pressure. It is expected to oscillate widely and weakly [35]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate widely with a weak sentiment [36]. - **Glass**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate widely [37]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Prices rose. U.S. soybeans had strong sales, and domestic prices were boosted by external and cost factors. A long - position strategy is recommended [39]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. A long - position strategy is suggested [40][41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate due to supply and policy factors. Egg prices have a complex situation with a possible seasonal rebound but a short - term bearish sentiment [42][43]. - **Corn**: Futures prices rebounded technically, but the mid - term is expected to be weak [44]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: Prices are expected to continue to be weak due to production increase expectations and domestic price adjustments [46]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton fell. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the long term [47][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has risen recently due to long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies and infrastructure investment, and short - term capital inflows and improved enterprise deposit and loan data. The bond market is expected to show a repair trend. Precious metals are supported by "interest rate cut expectation" and "geopolitical uncertainty". Most commodities are expected to show a wide - range or weak - range oscillation trend [2][3][4] - Different commodities are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical events, and their price trends vary. For example, steel products are affected by production, inventory, and policy expectations; copper is affected by tariffs and inventory; and energy products are affected by supply, demand, and price adjustments [6][15][23] Summary by Category Financials Stock Index - The A - share market rose yesterday with the Wind All - A up 0.72% and a turnover of 1.76 trillion yuan. The rise is attributed to long - term, mid - term, and short - term logics. It is advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [2] - The treasury bond futures showed different trends. The short - term bond market is expected to repair, and short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell overnight. Gold is in a window supported by "interest rate cut expectation" and "geopolitical uncertainty" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. Low - buying and holding silver is a good strategy [4] Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke Rebar - The rebar futures fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. The supply - demand pressure increased, but policy expectations and rumors boosted market sentiment. The short - term is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [6] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price fell. The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand weakened. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [7][8] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rose. The supply is affected by inspections, and the demand is strong. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [9] Coke - The coke futures rose. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [10] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures strengthened. Market news boosted confidence, and the demand increased. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [11][12] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures strengthened. Cost support is strong, and the fundamentals have little contradiction. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [13] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices rose slightly. The macro situation is complex, and the demand is insufficient. The price may be weak, but the "Golden September" expectation restricts the decline [15][16] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were affected by market sentiment. The fundamentals changed little, and the short - term is expected to oscillate [17] Alumina, Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloy - Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy prices rose. The supply of alumina is expected to increase, and the aluminum price may face downward pressure. The short - term is expected to oscillate [18][19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices rose. Pay attention to the policy implementation and the opportunity of shorting SI and longing PS [20] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures rose, and the spot price fell. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is expected to increase. The short - term focus is on production uncertainties [21] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices fell. The market is affected by sanctions and price adjustments. The price is under upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [23] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand may weaken. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [24] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term is expected to oscillate [25][26] Rubber - Rubber prices showed different trends. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [27] PX, PTA, and MEG - PX, PTA, and MEG prices rose. The cost is under pressure, and the demand has resilience. The short - term price trends vary [28][29] Methanol - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate. The inventory is expected to accumulate, but the increase is not significant [30] Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are affected by supply and demand and cost. The short - term upward space is limited [31] Polyvinyl Chloride - PVC prices showed different trends. The fundamentals improved slightly. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [32][33] Urea - Urea prices strengthened. The supply increased, and the demand slowed down. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices showed different trends. The supply and demand are stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [35] Glass - Glass prices were weak. The supply was stable, and the demand declined. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [36][37] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans fell, while domestic protein meal prices rose. The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is expected to peak. The strategy is to go long on soybean meal and participate in positive spreads [39] Oils - BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. The supply and demand data will be released, and the strategy is to go long and sell put options [40] Live Pigs - Live pig futures rose, and the spot price fell. The supply pressure and policy support coexist. The short - term is expected to oscillate [41][42] Eggs - Egg futures rose, and the spot price fell. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, but there is a possibility of seasonal rebound [43] Corn - Corn futures rebounded, and the spot price was weak. The short - term is expected to face resistance, and the medium - term is expected to be weak [44] Soft Commodities Sugar - The domestic sugar sales data is good, but the spot price is down. The external market is weak. The domestic market is expected to be weak [46] Cotton - ICE cotton fell, while domestic cotton rose slightly. The international market focuses on macro factors, and the domestic market is supported by inventory. The 01 contract is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term [47]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts in September and December, considering the potential impact of tariffs on core goods inflation and a possible slowdown in the labor market [1] Inflation and Tariffs - The June CPI data indicates a rebound in inflation for goods with high import dependence, contradicting claims that tariffs do not translate into consumer prices [1] - The weighted average import tariff rate in the U.S. was only 8.7% in May, and some companies have delayed price transmission by consuming inventory [1] - It is anticipated that the impact of tariffs on inflation will become more evident, potentially pushing U.S. inflation higher in the short term [1] Business Sentiment - A survey by the New York Fed shows that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers within three months [1] - Jerome Powell stated during the June FOMC press conference that the Fed needs to observe the impact of tariffs over the summer, suggesting that the rise in inflation may already be within the Fed's expectations [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June is expected to show a significant rebound in inflation, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the second half of the year [1][4] - The CPI for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while core CPI remained at 2.8%, indicating overall moderate inflation pressure [3] - Wall Street anticipates that the June CPI year-on-year growth will rise to 2.7% and month-on-month growth may reach 0.3%, marking a new high for the year [3] Group 2 - The rise in inflation is attributed not only to short-term fluctuations in energy and food prices but also to new tariff measures impacting various sectors, leading to input inflation [3] - The ISM manufacturing report indicates a trend of rising raw material prices, reflecting companies' responses to tariff policies, which could lead to widespread price increases in core goods [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to observe summer price reports to assess changes in inflation trends [4] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, but there is divergence on the timing, with some investors believing that sustained high inflation could delay rate cuts [4] - The recent rebound in the dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields indicate increased investor vigilance regarding the potential for rising inflation [4] - The current situation presents challenges for the Federal Reserve, balancing the risk of inflation resurgence against potential growth risks from manufacturing weakness and declining consumer momentum [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that uncertainty and weak demand are impacting corporate investment in the UK [1] - Recent signs of economic weakness have become more pronounced [1] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring the situation regarding the rebound of inflation in the UK [1] - Rising food inflation has been added to the Bank's list of concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is closely monitoring the resurgence of inflation in the UK [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England is taking a "very close" look at the rising inflation rates in the UK [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the silver T+D prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and easing tensions in the Middle East, leading to a decline in silver prices [1] - Powell's testimony before Congress suggests that the Federal Reserve needs more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before considering interest rate cuts, with expectations that inflation will soon begin to rise [2] - The market generally believes that a rate cut is unlikely at the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, with the first cut expected in September [3] Group 2 - Silver T+D prices have recently declined but have shown signs of a rebound, with key support levels identified between 8400-8500 and resistance levels between 8800-8900 [4]