公司点评 宁德时代（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 300750） 产品结构持续优化，市占率持续领先 | | | 报告日期： 2025-04-01 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） 256.80 | | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元）301.50/166.80 | | 总股本（百万股） 4,403 | | 流通股本（百万股） 3,903 | | 流通股比例（%） 88.63 | | 总市值（亿元） 11,308 | | 流通市值（亿元） 10,022 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -22% 0% 22% 43% 65% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 宁德时代 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：张志邦 执业证书号：S0010523120004 邮箱：zhangzhibang@hazq.com 分析师：刘千琳 执业证书号：S0010524050002 邮箱：liuqianlin@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.宁德时代 24 年 3 季报点评：新产品 占 ...

Core Viewpoint - CATL reported a complex financial performance in 2024, with total revenue of 362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.7%, marking the first annual revenue decrease in the company's history. However, net profit increased by 15.01% to 50.7 billion yuan, demonstrating strong profitability despite revenue challenges [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - Total revenue for 2024 was 362 billion yuan, down from 401 billion yuan in 2023 [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the electric machinery and equipment manufacturing sector contributed 356.5 billion yuan (98.48% of total revenue), while the mining and smelting sector contributed 5.5 billion yuan (1.52%) [2]. - The average selling price of CATL's power battery systems decreased by 25.26% from 0.889 yuan/Wh in 2023 to 0.664 yuan/Wh in 2024, despite an 18.85% increase in sales volume to 381 GWh [3]. Market Position - CATL maintained its position as the global leader in power and energy storage batteries, with a market share of 37.9% in the power battery sector and 36.5% in the energy storage sector in 2024 [2]. Cost Control and Innovation - The increase in net profit was attributed to effective cost control and technological innovation, with CATL leveraging lower raw material prices to enhance profitability [4]. - The company has implemented strategies such as controlling upstream enterprises and adjusting raw material inventory cycles to mitigate risks [4]. Research and Development - CATL has launched several innovative battery products, including the Kirin, Shenxing, and Xiaoyao batteries, aimed at enhancing energy density and fast charging capabilities [5]. Growth Strategies - CATL is actively pursuing a second growth curve focusing on battery swapping, energy storage, and international markets. The company plans to build a significant battery swapping network in collaboration with NIO [6]. - The energy storage battery segment saw a 34.32% increase in sales volume to 93 GWh in 2024, becoming the largest profit contributor for the company [6]. International Expansion - CATL is expanding its international presence with six R&D centers and thirteen manufacturing bases globally, including operational factories in Germany and Hungary [7]. - The company plans to raise approximately 50 billion yuan through a Hong Kong IPO to support overseas capacity expansion and international business development [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance with a projected revenue of 362 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, but a net profit of 50.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15% [6]. - The company has a dominant market share in both power batteries and energy storage, with a global market share of 37.9% and 36.5% respectively, maintaining its leading position for eight and four consecutive years [6][7]. - The company plans to increase its production capacity and introduce new products, which is expected to enhance its revenue and profitability in the coming years [6][7]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a recovery with expected revenues of 430 billion yuan in 2025, 502 billion yuan in 2026, and 582 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 64.5 billion yuan, 77.9 billion yuan, and 93.2 billion yuan respectively [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 24.4% in 2024 to 26.2% in 2027, indicating a stable increase in profitability [5][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 11.52 yuan in 2024 to 21.18 yuan in 2027 [5][6]. Market Performance - The stock price closed at 256 yuan on March 17, 2025, with a 52-week price range of 166.8 to 301.5 yuan [2]. - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance decline of 6.2% over the past month, while the overall market index has also experienced fluctuations [3][4]. Product Segmentation and Profitability - The power battery system is expected to generate revenue of 291.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 24.39% [9]. - The energy storage system is projected to achieve revenue of 82.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 27.27% [9]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in the proportion of new products in its sales mix, particularly the Shenxing and Kirin batteries, which are expected to rise from 30-40% to 60-70% of total shipments by 2025 [6][7].

3月14日晚间，宁德时代发布2024年年报，2024年公司实现营业收入3620.13亿元，同比下降 9.70%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为507.45亿元，同比增长15.01%。 这是其2018年上市以来首次营收同比下降，但年度净利润首度迈过500亿元关口，创历史新 高！以此估算，宁德时代2024年日赚1.39亿元，而2023年是日赚1.21亿元。 市值上， 截至3月14日，宁德时代总市值达1.15万亿元。 01 动力/储能电池市场占有率超30% 去年，宁德时代实现锂离子电池销量475GWh，同比增长21.79%。其中，动力电池系统销量 381GWh，同比增长18.85%；储能电池系统销量93GWh，同比增长34.32%。 这也促使宁德时代连续八年位居全球动力电池装车量榜首，四年蝉联储能电池出货量冠军， 成 为全球唯一一家在动储能电池两大领域市场占有率均超过30%的新能源科技企业。 但由于电池价格随碳酸锂等原材料价格下降相应调整，动力和储能电池累计贡献营收3102亿 元，同比下滑了10%。宁德时代的另外两大板块为电池材料及回收，以及电池矿产资源，两者 去年营收也呈现两位数下滑。 分季度而言，宁德时代已连续七 ...