1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically reviews the price spread between Chinese corn starch and corn from 2021 - 2025, aiming to analyze the profit - gaming logic of the starch industry under the over - supply situation. The main influencing factors of the spread are "cost - supply and demand". The price change of corn at the cost end is the basis for affecting the spread, while the supply - demand relationship of starch is the core driver of the spread's fluctuation. The supply and demand of starch are mainly reflected through processing profit, operating rate, and inventory. High inventory and high operating rate jointly form the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while low inventory and low operating rate are the core drivers for the spread to expand. High inventory limits the upward space of the spread, and industrial concentration strengthens the bottom support of the spread. In the future, the high inventory of starch serves as a major resistance, and the progress of inventory clearance will be a key observation indicator [1][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Corn Starch Industry Chain Situation - Corn starch accounts for about 52% of the deep - processed consumption of corn. Its price is strongly influenced by the cost of corn and its own fundamentals. China's corn starch is mainly self - sufficient, with imports less than 1%. The main production areas are Shandong, Heilongjiang, and Hebei, accounting for 41%, 25%, and 7% respectively [5]. - The supply - related indicators of corn starch include production capacity, operating rate, cost - profit, etc. Downstream consumption is concentrated in starch sugar and papermaking. There is a substitution relationship between starch sugar and white sugar, and the substitution effect is evident when the price difference exceeds 1500 yuan/ton. The price difference between white sugar and F55 high - fructose corn syrup this year has been maintained at a relatively high level of 2500 - 2700 yuan/ton, and the substitution continues. The operating rate of corrugated paper and boxboard is relatively stable, with an annual change of about 5% [6]. 3.2 Corn Starch Production Capacity Changes - In recent years, the production capacity of corn starch has been expanding. In 2024, the production capacity slightly declined to 2630 million tons but still remained in an over - supply situation. The production capacity is mainly concentrated in Shandong, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Jilin. Since 2020, the industry has witnessed intensified competition, and production capacity has been increasingly concentrated in leading enterprises. The over - supply has compressed industry profits and limited the upward space of the spread, while the concentration has strengthened the bottom support of the spread [9][10][11]. 3.3 Corn Starch and Corn Price Spread Review 3.3.1 2021: Starch Supply - Demand Dominated - The spread showed an M - shaped trend, fluctuating between 300 - 600 yuan/ton. From January to March, the spread widened from 350 to 600 yuan/ton due to high corn prices, limited starch operating rate, and tight inventory. From April to July, it narrowed to around 350 yuan/ton as both corn and starch faced supply - demand pressure. From August to October, it widened again to 600 yuan/ton because of the rebound of corn prices and low starch operating rate. From November to December, it narrowed as starch production increased while demand growth was slower [15][16]. 3.3.2 2022: Strong Cost Support - The spread had a larger amplitude and showed a narrowing trend. From January to February, it expanded from 350 to 580 yuan/ton due to high raw material prices and low operating rate. From March to October, it continuously narrowed to 80 yuan/ton under factors such as weak demand, over - supply, and profit - driven price cuts. From November to December, it fluctuated between 100 - 250 yuan/ton as both corn and starch were in a weak supply - demand balance [19][20]. 3.3.3 2023: Low Operating Rate - The spread showed an oscillating trend with a slowly rising center of gravity. From January to June, it widened to 400 yuan/ton due to stable corn prices and low operating rate caused by continuous losses in processing profit. From July to December, it slightly increased with a shrinking amplitude. In July - August, it narrowed due to high corn prices and weak starch supply - demand. After September, it slightly increased as new - season corn was listed [22][24]. 3.3.4 2024: Weak Supply - Demand - The spread fluctuated between 300 - 500 yuan/ton. From January to May, it first rose and then fell. In January, it reached 500 yuan/ton due to good starch demand and high operating rate. After February, it narrowed to 380 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and processing profit declined. From June to December, it also first rose and then fell. From June to early July, it slightly widened due to limited corn supply and good starch demand. From mid - July to December, it continuously narrowed as new - season corn production was expected to be high and starch inventory accumulated [25][27]. 3.3.5 2025: Supply Pressure - The spread's fluctuation amplitude was about 100 yuan/ton. From January to mid - March, it widened from 300 to 400 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and starch operating rate was high. From late March to early August, it oscillated between 340 - 400 yuan/ton due to corn price fluctuations and weak starch supply - demand. From mid - August to the present, it has been narrowing as new corn was listed, starch inventory remained high, and cassava starch squeezed the demand for corn starch [31]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - From 2021 - 2025, the spread oscillated with a narrowing range, from 300 - 600 yuan/ton in 2021 to 280 - 400 yuan/ton in 2025, and the high point declined from 600 to 400 yuan/ton. The spread showed seasonal patterns. The spread is mainly affected by "cost - supply and demand", with corn price as the basis and starch supply - demand as the core driver. Starch inventory is a key factor, and "high operating rate + high inventory" is the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while "low operating rate + low inventory" is the core driver for the spread to expand. In the future, the high inventory of starch is a major resistance, and the spread may continue to narrow. Attention should be paid to the change in starch inventory [35][36][40].

Core Insights - The "Digital Commerce Promotes Agriculture" initiative is being implemented in Wuzhou, Guangxi, highlighting the city's industrial heritage and its role as a hub for various well-known brands [1][3] - Wuzhou's artificial gemstone industry is a significant contributor to the global market, with an annual production accounting for 80% of China's and 70% of the world's output [1] Group 1: E-commerce Development - Wuzhou has seen a deep integration of traditional industries with e-commerce, utilizing platforms like Douyin and Taobao to showcase local products such as Liu Bao tea and artificial gemstones [3] - The city has achieved over 100 million yuan in online sales of agricultural products this year, indicating a strong growth in e-commerce [4] Group 2: Cross-border E-commerce Initiatives - Wuzhou has been approved as a comprehensive pilot zone for cross-border e-commerce, establishing key facilities like bonded warehouses and a live-streaming base to enhance its e-commerce ecosystem [4] - The city has recognized 13 enterprises as "vegetable basket" production bases in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, enhancing its agricultural supply chain [4] Group 3: Agricultural Processing and Value Addition - In 2024, Wuzhou's agricultural processing output value is expected to exceed 20.9 billion yuan, with a processing conversion rate of 73.28%, showcasing the effectiveness of its agricultural development strategy [4] - The establishment of seven agricultural processing clusters has significantly contributed to the development of the agricultural industry chain in Wuzhou [4]