1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically reviews the price spread between Chinese corn starch and corn from 2021 - 2025, aiming to analyze the profit - gaming logic of the starch industry under the over - supply situation. The main influencing factors of the spread are "cost - supply and demand". The price change of corn at the cost end is the basis for affecting the spread, while the supply - demand relationship of starch is the core driver of the spread's fluctuation. The supply and demand of starch are mainly reflected through processing profit, operating rate, and inventory. High inventory and high operating rate jointly form the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while low inventory and low operating rate are the core drivers for the spread to expand. High inventory limits the upward space of the spread, and industrial concentration strengthens the bottom support of the spread. In the future, the high inventory of starch serves as a major resistance, and the progress of inventory clearance will be a key observation indicator [1][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Corn Starch Industry Chain Situation - Corn starch accounts for about 52% of the deep - processed consumption of corn. Its price is strongly influenced by the cost of corn and its own fundamentals. China's corn starch is mainly self - sufficient, with imports less than 1%. The main production areas are Shandong, Heilongjiang, and Hebei, accounting for 41%, 25%, and 7% respectively [5]. - The supply - related indicators of corn starch include production capacity, operating rate, cost - profit, etc. Downstream consumption is concentrated in starch sugar and papermaking. There is a substitution relationship between starch sugar and white sugar, and the substitution effect is evident when the price difference exceeds 1500 yuan/ton. The price difference between white sugar and F55 high - fructose corn syrup this year has been maintained at a relatively high level of 2500 - 2700 yuan/ton, and the substitution continues. The operating rate of corrugated paper and boxboard is relatively stable, with an annual change of about 5% [6]. 3.2 Corn Starch Production Capacity Changes - In recent years, the production capacity of corn starch has been expanding. In 2024, the production capacity slightly declined to 2630 million tons but still remained in an over - supply situation. The production capacity is mainly concentrated in Shandong, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Jilin. Since 2020, the industry has witnessed intensified competition, and production capacity has been increasingly concentrated in leading enterprises. The over - supply has compressed industry profits and limited the upward space of the spread, while the concentration has strengthened the bottom support of the spread [9][10][11]. 3.3 Corn Starch and Corn Price Spread Review 3.3.1 2021: Starch Supply - Demand Dominated - The spread showed an M - shaped trend, fluctuating between 300 - 600 yuan/ton. From January to March, the spread widened from 350 to 600 yuan/ton due to high corn prices, limited starch operating rate, and tight inventory. From April to July, it narrowed to around 350 yuan/ton as both corn and starch faced supply - demand pressure. From August to October, it widened again to 600 yuan/ton because of the rebound of corn prices and low starch operating rate. From November to December, it narrowed as starch production increased while demand growth was slower [15][16]. 3.3.2 2022: Strong Cost Support - The spread had a larger amplitude and showed a narrowing trend. From January to February, it expanded from 350 to 580 yuan/ton due to high raw material prices and low operating rate. From March to October, it continuously narrowed to 80 yuan/ton under factors such as weak demand, over - supply, and profit - driven price cuts. From November to December, it fluctuated between 100 - 250 yuan/ton as both corn and starch were in a weak supply - demand balance [19][20]. 3.3.3 2023: Low Operating Rate - The spread showed an oscillating trend with a slowly rising center of gravity. From January to June, it widened to 400 yuan/ton due to stable corn prices and low operating rate caused by continuous losses in processing profit. From July to December, it slightly increased with a shrinking amplitude. In July - August, it narrowed due to high corn prices and weak starch supply - demand. After September, it slightly increased as new - season corn was listed [22][24]. 3.3.4 2024: Weak Supply - Demand - The spread fluctuated between 300 - 500 yuan/ton. From January to May, it first rose and then fell. In January, it reached 500 yuan/ton due to good starch demand and high operating rate. After February, it narrowed to 380 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and processing profit declined. From June to December, it also first rose and then fell. From June to early July, it slightly widened due to limited corn supply and good starch demand. From mid - July to December, it continuously narrowed as new - season corn production was expected to be high and starch inventory accumulated [25][27]. 3.3.5 2025: Supply Pressure - The spread's fluctuation amplitude was about 100 yuan/ton. From January to mid - March, it widened from 300 to 400 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and starch operating rate was high. From late March to early August, it oscillated between 340 - 400 yuan/ton due to corn price fluctuations and weak starch supply - demand. From mid - August to the present, it has been narrowing as new corn was listed, starch inventory remained high, and cassava starch squeezed the demand for corn starch [31]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - From 2021 - 2025, the spread oscillated with a narrowing range, from 300 - 600 yuan/ton in 2021 to 280 - 400 yuan/ton in 2025, and the high point declined from 600 to 400 yuan/ton. The spread showed seasonal patterns. The spread is mainly affected by "cost - supply and demand", with corn price as the basis and starch supply - demand as the core driver. Starch inventory is a key factor, and "high operating rate + high inventory" is the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while "low operating rate + low inventory" is the core driver for the spread to expand. In the future, the high inventory of starch is a major resistance, and the spread may continue to narrow. Attention should be paid to the change in starch inventory [35][36][40].

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Consumer Behavior - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shifted from decline to increase, indicating a need to further stimulate consumer activity in the economy [1] - Consumer spending is a major component of GDP, and its growth is essential for economic development [1] - The government has introduced policies such as "trade-in" and "consumer loan interest subsidies" to boost consumption [1] Group 2: Trends in Consumption - There is a significant trend towards increasing the proportion of consumption in GDP, which is currently lower compared to developed countries [2] - Enhancing consumer income through industrial upgrades is crucial for boosting consumption [2] - The demand for sports events and related products indicates untapped consumer potential [2] Group 3: Competition and Market Dynamics - "Involution" or excessive competition in certain industries is detrimental to consumer welfare and market health [3] - The need to improve industry concentration and profitability is emphasized to combat "involution" [5] - The manufacturing sector's upgrade is essential for increasing residents' income and overcoming the middle-income trap [4][5] Group 4: Policy Utilization and Consumer Opportunities - Consumers are encouraged to take advantage of government subsidies for various sectors, including home appliances and automobiles [6] - The limited nature of subsidies means consumers should act quickly to benefit from available policies [6] - Traditional and new consumption sectors hold significant potential for growth, and consumers should embrace digital economic opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of observing industrial concentration at both regional and industry levels to avoid "involution" and promote healthy industrial development [2][4]. Regional Perspective: Core Industries of Each Province - The average revenue share of the top-ranked industry in 30 provinces is 19.7%, with notable provinces exceeding 20%: Jilin (42.3% in automotive), Shanxi (38.7% in coal mining), Hebei (29.6% in black metal smelting), Beijing (28.4% in electric heat), Guangdong (25.7% in electronic equipment manufacturing), Hainan (25.6% in fuel processing), Shanghai (20.9% in automotive), Inner Mongolia (20.7% in coal mining), and Chongqing (20.6% in electronic equipment manufacturing [4][10]. - The combined revenue share of the top five industries in each province averages 54.9%, with higher concentrations in provinces like Hainan (66.4%), Shanxi (71.7%), Beijing (70.6%), Jilin (69.3%), Ningxia (67%), and Qinghai (79.5%) [4][10]. Industry Perspective: Advantageous Regions for Each Industry - The top five provinces in terms of industrial revenue account for 47.4% of the national industrial revenue, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Fujian being the largest [5][13]. - The average concentration of the top five industries across 41 sectors is 59.7%, with lower concentrations observed in sectors such as non-ferrous metal mining, food processing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing [5][13]. - In the midstream equipment manufacturing sector, notable concentration levels include electrical machinery (66.2%), electronic equipment (63.1%), and instruments (68.8%) [5][13]. Industry Presence Across Provinces - Eight industries, including electric heat, electronic equipment, and automotive, rank among the top five in revenue across more than ten provinces, indicating significant investment in these sectors [6][14]. - Conversely, industries like pharmaceutical manufacturing and specialized equipment manufacturing are only ranked in the top five in a limited number of provinces, highlighting potential areas for growth or investment [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has completed the first draft of the revised "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry," suggesting the cancellation of capacity trading between different enterprises and promoting mergers and acquisitions for capacity integration [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - CISA recommends eliminating capacity trading between enterprises to remove economic benefits attached to capacity indicators, allowing only substantial mergers and acquisitions for capacity integration [1][4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) suspended the capacity replacement policy in 2024 due to issues such as inadequate execution and supervision, and a mismatch with industry development needs [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The steel industry faces challenges such as rising production costs, with the average investment for ultra-low emission transformation reaching approximately 474.35 yuan per ton, and average environmental operating costs around 218.43 yuan [2]. - Some enterprises are lagging in environmental upgrades, leading to unfair competition within the industry, as those with outdated facilities struggle to keep up with the costs of compliance [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - CISA aims to encourage strong enterprises to grow while gradually pushing out those lacking market competitiveness, thereby increasing industry concentration [1][4]. - The association emphasizes the need for a new capacity and output regulation mechanism that aligns with market principles to address the issue of "bad money driving out good" in the industry [3].