【基本面解析】 美联储此次降息尘埃落定！12月11日，美联储正式宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，实现 连续第三次降息，今年累计降幅达75个基点，为市场送上"预期之中的惊喜"。然而，投票结果却分歧明 显，9票支持、3票反对，创下自2019年以来反对票数最多的纪录。新任理事米兰主张更大幅度的50基点 降息，而古尔斯比和施密德则认为应维持利率不变，这场"有人嫌少，有人嫌多"的争论，展现了美联储 内部的多元观点。 政策声明中，美联储删除了"失业率较低"的表述，反映了当前就业增长放缓、失业率上升的现实。关于 未来降息路径，点阵图显示2026年预计再降25个基点，与此前预测相符。此外，美联储宣布将从12月12 日起，在30天内购买400亿美元国库券，并可能在未来几个月保持高位购买，以确保市场流动性充足。 这一系列操作旨在稳定利率，而非启动新的量化宽松。 摘要北京时间周四(12月11日)欧洲时段，美元指数止跌回升，交投于98.674附近，金价目前交投于 4212.02美元/盎司，跌幅0.36%，最高触及4247.50美元/盎司，最低触及4203.73美元/盎司。凌晨3点美联 储利率决议后，金价深蹲41 ...

Core Insights - The US government shutdown has entered its 23rd day, with the Senate rejecting temporary funding resolutions, leading to a lack of official economic data and increased market uncertainty [3] - Gold prices have shown resilience, trading above $4100 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions and the ongoing government shutdown, which drives investors towards safe-haven assets [1][2] Economic Analysis - The anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data may not provide the necessary insights for investors due to the absence of official data during the government shutdown [3] - Concerns are rising over a significant slowdown in job growth, with potential trend employment growth now estimated at only 25,000 jobs per month, a reduction of 125,000 jobs from earlier predictions [3] - Goldman Sachs economists have identified five key factors contributing to the rapid decline in job growth, including reduced immigration, government hiring cuts, the rise of AI, increased tariff costs, and heightened macroeconomic risks [3] Inflation and Market Sentiment - The core inflation rate is expected to remain at 3.1%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with core CPI consistently above 3% for nearly five years [4] - Despite strong demand ahead of the Diwali festival in India supporting gold prices, there are rising risks of a pullback in gold and silver due to technical overbought conditions and a shift in market sentiment towards risk appetite [4] Technical Analysis - Gold's price movements have shown a more subdued volatility compared to previous days, indicating a potential stabilization after recent fluctuations [4] - Short-term moving averages are beginning to show signs of upward momentum, suggesting a possible stabilization in gold prices after recent declines [4][5] - The upward trend line in hourly charts remains intact, indicating potential for further price increases, with a focus on the $4200 resistance level [5]

Core Insights - The decline in the US dollar index and concerns over the US fiscal and economic outlook have contributed to a significant increase in gold prices, with expectations of over 3% growth for the week [2] - Political uncertainty has heightened demand for gold, which is seen as a safe-haven asset, especially as other assets like the dollar face pressure [2] - The passage of Trump's tax and spending bill in the House has raised concerns about increasing US government debt, further weakening the dollar [2] Market Data - Current gold prices are reported at $3324.69 per ounce, with a daily high of $3334.27 and a low of $3286.89 [1] - Other gold-related prices include: - Gold T+D: 775.60 yuan/gram - Paper gold: 768.17 yuan/gram - Shanghai gold futures: 780.10 yuan/gram [1] Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold indicates a potential correction after a series of gains, with support levels identified at 3280 and 3293 [2] - The next upward target for gold is projected to be around 3400, with a bullish trend supported by moving averages and Bollinger Bands [2] - The market remains in a strong bullish cycle, with key resistance levels at 3315, 3340, 3365, 3380, and 3400 [2]