Group 1 - The bond market has shown resilience in September, but some ultra-long bond yields have slightly increased against the trend, with "bond switching" becoming a key factor driving market movements [1][2] - As of September 4, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250011) rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.755%, while the 30-year government bond (active bond 2500002) increased by 1.15 basis points to 2.0085% [1] - The trading volume of the ultra-long government bond "25 Ultra Long Special Government Bond 06" has surged, with nearly 900 trades over three consecutive days, indicating a shift in market focus towards new bonds [2][3] Group 2 - The process of "bond switching" typically involves a shift in market pricing towards newly issued bonds due to their interest rate advantages and improved liquidity, leading to a decline in trading volume of older bonds [3] - The issuance schedule for the 30-year ultra-long special government bonds is relatively fast, with three more issuances planned in September and October, suggesting a potential for higher cost-effectiveness in pre-switch configurations [3] - The trading behavior indicates that the main sellers of ultra-long bonds are insurance funds and mutual funds, while banks and brokerages are the primary buyers, reflecting a strategic shift in market participation [3][6] Group 3 - Market sentiment appears to be at a short-term turning point, influenced by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with overall bond market performance being strong despite the rapid rise in long-end bond yields at the end of the trading day [6] - Future fluctuations in ultra-long bond rates may require stronger consensus expectations, potentially driven by a systemic weakening of market risk appetite or additional monetary easing from the central bank [6] - If the stock market continues its consolidation phase, the bond market is expected to remain within a volatile range, while a stock market recovery could test the upper limits of current bond market fluctuations [6]

近日，财政部、国家税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日期之后(含当日)新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入， 恢复征收增值税；对在该日期之前已发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含在2025年8月8日之后续发行的部分)的利息收入，继续免征增值 税直至债券到期。 对于债市影响方面，中信建投期货孙玉龙表示，受国债等债券利息收入恢复征税影响，近期债券远期收益率预期上升，近远月价差进一步扩张。 但从长期来看，"反内卷"和恢复征收增值税对债市的影响时间较短且力度有限，反而提供了做多长债的机会，债市长期升势不改。 风险提示：本处所列示信息仅用于沟通交流之目的，仅供参考，不构成对任何个股的投资建议。"基金有风险，投资需谨慎" 央行今日开展1607亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.40%，与此前持平。银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅震荡，截至昨日下午16:30，10年期国债 活跃券250011收益率下行0.5bp报1.699%，10年期国开债活跃券250210收益率上行0.1bp报1.796%，30年期国债活跃券2500002收益率下行0.05bp报 1.9175%。 2.债市资讯 鹏扬30年国债ET ...

1. 资金面 7月31日讯，国债市场早盘持续拉升。截至上午10:00，30年国债ETF(511090)涨0.52%。债市方面30年期国债期货合约(TL2509)最新价为119.07元， 涨0.63%，成交量为46165手，总持仓量为117716手。其余国债期货合约10年期国债(T2509)涨0.16%；5年期国债(TF2509)涨0.07%；2年期国债 (TS2509)涨0.01%。(数据来源：中国金融期货交易所) 央行今日开展2832亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.40%，与此前持平。银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，截至昨日下午16:30，10年期国债 活跃券250011收益率下行3.25bp报1.715%，30年期国债活跃券2500002收益率下行4bp报1.921%，10年期国开活跃券250210收益率下行3.4bp报 1.8025%。 鹏扬30年国债ETF(511090)是目前市场上首只跟踪中债30年期国债指数的ETF，具备T+0交易属性，既可使得投资者日内低买高卖博取收益，也可 帮助投资者快速拉长组合久期或用作对冲权益仓位。该产品可以作为客户的高弹性现金管理工具和组合久期调节工具，短期在市场利率 ...