Group 1 - The bond market has shown resilience in September, but some ultra-long bond yields have slightly increased against the trend, with "bond switching" becoming a key factor driving market movements [1][2] - As of September 4, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250011) rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.755%, while the 30-year government bond (active bond 2500002) increased by 1.15 basis points to 2.0085% [1] - The trading volume of the ultra-long government bond "25 Ultra Long Special Government Bond 06" has surged, with nearly 900 trades over three consecutive days, indicating a shift in market focus towards new bonds [2][3] Group 2 - The process of "bond switching" typically involves a shift in market pricing towards newly issued bonds due to their interest rate advantages and improved liquidity, leading to a decline in trading volume of older bonds [3] - The issuance schedule for the 30-year ultra-long special government bonds is relatively fast, with three more issuances planned in September and October, suggesting a potential for higher cost-effectiveness in pre-switch configurations [3] - The trading behavior indicates that the main sellers of ultra-long bonds are insurance funds and mutual funds, while banks and brokerages are the primary buyers, reflecting a strategic shift in market participation [3][6] Group 3 - Market sentiment appears to be at a short-term turning point, influenced by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with overall bond market performance being strong despite the rapid rise in long-end bond yields at the end of the trading day [6] - Future fluctuations in ultra-long bond rates may require stronger consensus expectations, potentially driven by a systemic weakening of market risk appetite or additional monetary easing from the central bank [6] - If the stock market continues its consolidation phase, the bond market is expected to remain within a volatile range, while a stock market recovery could test the upper limits of current bond market fluctuations [6]

固收专题 怎么看关键期限国债新发定价与活跃券切换 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 8 月 22 日，征收票息增值税后关键期限国债首次新发，10Y25 附息国债 16 （后文简称"2516"）票面利率 1.83%、30Y25 超长特别国债 06（后文简称" 25T6"）票面利率 2.15%。 ➢ 从发行定价含税情况来看，分别以中债曲线、活跃券、非活跃券发行前参考 估值作为定价基础，计算出来的税率差别较大，尤其是 25T6，若参考活跃券定 价隐含税率为 6.97%。但 2516 和 25T6 的发行有一个共同特征，即参考非活跃 券定价的税率均低于公募基金的简易计税税率 3%，也就是说明市场给予了这两 只国债一定的未来流动性溢价定价。因此，2516、25T6 是否能成为后续的活跃 券是其发行定价合理性的关键。我们预计 25T6 的总体存续规模可能达到 3170 亿元，25 附息国债 02 最终存续规模将来到 2730 亿元。 ➢ 谁有望成为下一只 30Y 国债活跃券？从 2020 年来 30Y 国债活跃券情况可 以看到：除连续发行特别国债时期外，大多数 30Y 国债成为活跃券后均能持续活 跃 150 天以上， ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 今年个券博弈的五个新规律 ——利率周记（6 月第 3 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-17 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 [Table_Report] [Table_CompanyRptType] 固收周报 ⚫[Table_Summary] 债市震荡+重交易，关注个券利差变化的三个新特征 今年以来，债市更加重交易。在十年国债 1.65%的背景下，资本利得占综合收 益比例较往年明显增加，债市交易的重要性提升。 在当前震荡市环境下，寻找个券的利差机会被投资者愈加重视。在以往的趋 势性行情中，同一期限段的活跃券、次活跃券以及次次活跃券收益率走势通常 整体大幅变动，其相对利差的变化影响较小，趋势性行情下博 ...