每经AI快讯，11月13日，银行间主要利率债收益率午间集体上行，30年期"25超长特别国债06"收益率上 行0.75bp报2.1525%，10年期"25国开15"上行0.55bp报1.878%，同期限"25附息国债16"上行0.65bp报 1.8075%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The current active bond has successfully switched to "25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 06" ("Te 6"), and the spread between it and the previous active bond "25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 02" ("Te 2") has fluctuated between 8 - 16bp and is now around 8bp. The spread may decline further, but the compression process may be long and the space is relatively limited [7][10]. - The compression of the spread is restricted by two factors: the rapid increase in the trading activity of "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 02" and the impact of value - added tax [21][22]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly View: Limited Spread Compression Space after Bond Switching - From the perspective of liquidity premium, the spread between the new and old bonds after the bond switch may widen temporarily but will eventually decline. The subsequent issuance of the new bond under the original code has a weak impact on the spread compression. Attention should be paid to the trading activity of "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 02" [7][20]. - Due to the difference in the start date of issuance and the value - added tax policy, there should be a certain tax spread between Te 6 and Te 2. The actual tax spread may be lower than the theoretical one. The spread compression is restricted by the activity of "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 02" and value - added tax [21][22]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Accelerated Issuance of Local Bonds 2.1 Attention to Domestic Economic Data - This week, China will release data such as October's social retail sales and industrial added value, and the US will release data like October's seasonally adjusted CPI, PPI, and the EIA monthly short - term energy outlook report. The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions of the Monetary Policy Meeting in October [23][24]. 2.2 This Week's Expected Interest - Rate Bond Issuance is 708.1 billion - The issuance scale of interest - rate bonds this week is expected to be 708.1 billion, including 293 billion of treasury bonds, 285.1 billion of local bonds, and about 130 billion of policy - bank bonds [24][25]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds: The Bond Market Gave Back Some Gains 3.1 Net Withdrawal of 1.57 trillion in Open - Market Operations - At the beginning of the month, there was a large - scale maturity of reverse repurchases, and the overall net withdrawal was 1.57 trillion. The repurchase volume increased seasonally, and the funds rate fluctuated after falling to a low level [29][31]. - The issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased, and the issuance was mainly in medium - term tenors. The issuance rates of different tenors showed differentiation [37]. 3.2 Bond Market Interest Rates Rose on the Whole - Last week, the bond market gave back some gains. Although the export data declined more than expected, the bond market interest rates rose mainly due to factors such as fund fluctuations and the rise of the equity market. The yields of 10Y treasury bonds and 10Y CDB active bonds increased by 1.4bp each, and the 5Y CDB bond had the largest increase of 5bp [7][49]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Commodity Prices Declined - On the production side, the operating rates were divided. The daily average crude steel output in late October decreased year - on - year. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail improved, while the year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area was still weak. The export index showed differentiation [55]. - In terms of prices, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices declined, and coal prices were divided. The building materials price index decreased, and the prices of downstream vegetables and pork increased [56].

Group 1 - The bond market has shown resilience in September, but some ultra-long bond yields have slightly increased against the trend, with "bond switching" becoming a key factor driving market movements [1][2] - As of September 4, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250011) rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.755%, while the 30-year government bond (active bond 2500002) increased by 1.15 basis points to 2.0085% [1] - The trading volume of the ultra-long government bond "25 Ultra Long Special Government Bond 06" has surged, with nearly 900 trades over three consecutive days, indicating a shift in market focus towards new bonds [2][3] Group 2 - The process of "bond switching" typically involves a shift in market pricing towards newly issued bonds due to their interest rate advantages and improved liquidity, leading to a decline in trading volume of older bonds [3] - The issuance schedule for the 30-year ultra-long special government bonds is relatively fast, with three more issuances planned in September and October, suggesting a potential for higher cost-effectiveness in pre-switch configurations [3] - The trading behavior indicates that the main sellers of ultra-long bonds are insurance funds and mutual funds, while banks and brokerages are the primary buyers, reflecting a strategic shift in market participation [3][6] Group 3 - Market sentiment appears to be at a short-term turning point, influenced by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with overall bond market performance being strong despite the rapid rise in long-end bond yields at the end of the trading day [6] - Future fluctuations in ultra-long bond rates may require stronger consensus expectations, potentially driven by a systemic weakening of market risk appetite or additional monetary easing from the central bank [6] - If the stock market continues its consolidation phase, the bond market is expected to remain within a volatile range, while a stock market recovery could test the upper limits of current bond market fluctuations [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, key - term treasury bonds were newly issued after the levy of coupon VAT. The coupon rate of 10Y25 Treasury Bond 16 (2516) is 1.83%, and that of 30Y25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 06 (25T6) is 2.15%. Whether 2516 and 25T6 can become active bonds is the key to the rationality of their issuance pricing [1][7]. - For 30Y treasury bonds, there are three possibilities for the next active bond: 25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 02 may remain active throughout the year; the active bond may switch to 25T6; or it may switch to 25 Treasury Bond 02. If 25T6's actual issuance scale is close to the estimated scale, it is likely to become the next active bond and has investment value [2][10]. - For 10Y treasury bonds, 25 Treasury Bond 11 may remain active for some time due to market investment habits, but 2516 has the possibility of quickly switching to the active bond. If it switches successfully, it has certain cost - effectiveness with an implied tax rate of 3.77% when priced with reference to the active bond [3][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1.1 Subsequent 30Y Treasury Bond Active Bond Possibility Analysis - **Estimated Scale of 25T6**: According to the issuance plan, 25T6 will have three more consecutive issuances in September and October. Assuming 20Y and 50Y consecutive issuances are based on the recent issuance scale of 35 billion yuan, 25T6's total scale may reach 317 billion yuan, higher than 25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 05 but slightly lower than 25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 02 [8]. - **Estimated Scale of 25 Treasury Bond 02**: In 2025, 25 Treasury Bond 02 will have two consecutive issuances in November and December. Assuming each issuance is 78 billion yuan, its final scale is expected to reach 273 billion yuan, less than the estimated scale of 25T6 [9]. - **Next 30Y Treasury Bond Active Bond Possibility**: Since 2020, most 30Y treasury bonds can remain active for over 150 days after becoming active bonds, and generally become active within 60 days after the first issuance. The average proportion of the issuance scale when becoming an active bond to the final scale is 54%. There are three possibilities for the next active bond: 25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 02 may remain active, in which case 25T6 may have low value; the active bond may switch to 25T6, which has high cost - effectiveness; or it may switch to 25 Treasury Bond 02, but the probability is low. If 25T6's actual scale is close to the estimated one, it is likely to become the next active bond [2][10]. 1.2 Subsequent 10Y Treasury Bond Active Bond Possibility Analysis - **Historical 10Y Treasury Bond Active Bond Situation**: Since 2020, 10Y treasury bonds generally remain active for about three months after becoming active bonds and usually become active within one month after issuance. Since 2024, the issuance scale has become an important factor affecting whether a 10Y treasury bond can become an active bond [15]. - **Estimated Scale of 2516**: If 2516 is issued consecutively based on the current issuance scale, its final scale is expected to be 462.03 billion yuan, slightly lower than the current active bond 25 Treasury Bond 11, but still a large - scale 10Y treasury bond [15]. - **Possibility of 2516 Becoming Active Bond**: 25 Treasury Bond 11 may remain active for some time due to market investment habits, but 2516 has the possibility of quickly switching to the active bond. After the first consecutive issuance, if it switches successfully, it has certain cost - effectiveness with an implied tax rate of 3.77% when priced with reference to the active bond [3][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp adjustment of the bond market this week is still a short - term emotional shock, and the pricing logic of assets has not changed much. The upward momentum of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate breaking through 1.75% will weaken marginally, but the downward space for interest rates is also limited. In the face of fluctuations, investors should choose trading strategies carefully according to their liability - side stability and safety cushion [2][17][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review: Risk Assets Continuously Suppress, Curve Bear - Steepens - The Shanghai Composite Index strongly broke through the key points of 3674 and 3700, boosting market risk appetite and leading to a significant adjustment in the bond market. Economic data in July, single - month negative credit growth, and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations failed to drive the bullish power of the bond market. By Friday, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury active bonds reached 1.7490% and 1.9980% respectively, approaching key levels [1][8]. - From Monday to Friday, influenced by factors such as the performance of risk assets, policy expectations, and economic data, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury active bonds fluctuated. Compared with August 8th, by August 15th, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds increased by 1.6BP, 4.9BP, 5.7BP, and 8.7BP respectively [8][9][10]. 3.2 Before the Key Resistance Level, the "Catalysts" and "Risk Points" of the Bond Market Catalysts - The limited bullish power in the bond market after the release of social financing and economic data this week may be due to the significant decline in bill rates at the end of June, which has already been expected by the market, rather than the unimportance of fundamental factors [2][17]. - The central bank closely monitors and precisely regulates the money market. Although there was a continuous net withdrawal from Monday to Thursday, the money market rate remained stable. On Friday, a 5000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase was implemented in time, and the central bank's open - market operations turned to net injection [17]. - The allocation demand is gradually increasing. Since August is the "sales rush" period before the reduction of insurance's预定 interest rate, the subsequent insurance purchase strength is expected to further increase [17]. Risk Points - There is a risk of negative feedback from bond - fund redemptions. As of August 17th, the scale of stock - funds and bond - funds in August increased by 145.7 billion yuan and 50.3 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous month, and it is the second consecutive month that the growth rate of stock - fund scale is greater than that of bond - funds [3][19]. - The central bank's monetary policy focuses on multiple goals and may tolerate fluctuations in the money market and the bond market caused by the temporary amplification of supply - demand frictions at individual times [4][28]. - Compared with the stock - bond seesaw effect after the "924" package of policies last year, the upward range of interest rates in this round is not large. Since the "anti - involution" market in early July, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury active bonds have increased by 11BP and 15BP respectively [4][28]. 3.3 Strategy Thinking: Ultra - Long Bonds Will See Intensive Issuance, Focus on the Switch of Individual Bond Relative Values - In the unstable bond - market situation, investors are advised to focus on bonds with both liquidity and relative value and conduct refined bond selection. They can seize the trading opportunities brought by the intensive issuance of ultra - long bonds from August to September [5][33]. - Usually, in the early stage of the issuance and subsequent re - issuance of new bonds, the spread between new and old bonds will widen. Next Friday, the 30 - year "25 Ultra - Long Special Treasury Bond 06" will be issued for the first time [5][33]. - Based on the issuance of 11 30 - year Treasury bonds since 2021, the spread between new and old bonds will reach its peak 2 - 9 trading days after the listing of the first - issued bond (except for 250002), with the spread widening by 2.1 - 9.5BP compared with the issuance start date and 1.6 - 15.8BP compared with the listing date (except for 2500005 which is narrowing). For the first issuance and the first two re - issuances, the spreads of active bonds, sub - active bonds, and new bonds compared with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate usually compress within the listing day and the following three trading days [5][34]. - For trading desks that can short, they can short old bonds before issuance, buy new bonds in the primary market, and then sell new bonds and buy back old bonds after the spread between new and old bonds widens. For allocation desks that cannot short, they can sell old bonds in their current holdings before issuance, buy new bonds in the primary market, and decide whether to sell and buy back old bonds after the new bonds are listed. In addition, lending bonds can further increase returns [38].