Group 1: Futures Market - On December 10, ICE cotton futures rose, supported by technical buying, with the most active March cotton futures contract increasing by 0.26 cents or 0.41%, settling at 64.12 cents per pound [1] - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicated a 1% increase in U.S. cotton production to 14.3 million bales, due to upward adjustments in production estimates for the southeastern U.S. and Delta regions [1] - Global cotton production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 119.79 million bales, slightly down from the previous estimate of 120.08 million bales [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The ICE deliverable 2 cotton contract inventory remained stable at 13,971 bales as of December 9 [3] - The Cotlook A Index on December 10 was reported at 73.95 cents per pound, an increase of 25 points [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to support consumer spending, which may boost demand for cotton and textile products [2]

Group 1 - The main cotton futures contract closed at 13,725 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in open interest by 1,643 contracts [1] - During the week of November 24-27, cotton futures opened at 13,480 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 13,745 CNY/ton and a low of 13,465 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.89% [1] - As of November 25, the ICE deliverable inventory of No. 2 cotton contracts remained unchanged at 20,344 bales [2] Group 2 - The domestic import volume for the 2024/25 season is expected to be low, with the same import policy likely to continue into the 2025/26 season [4] - U.S. wholesalers of apparel and fabric have slightly increased their inventory, while retailers are primarily reducing stock; China's cotton exports to Southeast Asia and the U.S. and Europe remain stable, with minimal tariff impact [4] - The USDA's November report raised expectations for increased production in the external market, leading to a weaker external market and a rebound in U.S. cotton contracts due to low prices [4] Group 3 - As of November 27, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,079, an increase of 90 from the previous trading day [3] - The domestic market is experiencing a traditional off-season in November that is not as weak as expected, with favorable downstream trading conditions [4] - However, the unexpectedly high yield of new cotton is creating significant hedging pressure within the price range of 13,700 to 14,000 CNY/ton, which may trigger further hedging pressure if prices continue to rise [4]