当天发布的经济数据也支持金价。美国密歇根大学29日发布的调查数据显示，美国8月份消费者信心指 数为58.2，较7月份下降约6%，为4个月来首次下降。 受技术性买盘、美国股市抛售拉动，12月黄金期价当天大幅上涨，突破每盎司3500美元，并触及三周高 点，收于技术面看涨的周线和月线高点。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 美国商务部29日公布的数据显示，衡量美国经济通胀水平的关键指标，个人消费支出价格指数（PCE指 数）7月份同比维持在2.6%不变，仍高于美联储2%长期目标；核心通胀率上涨至2.9%，为2月份以来最 高水平。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价29日上涨41.8美元，收于每盎司3516.1 美元，涨幅为1.20%。当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨104.7美分，收于每盎司40.750美元，涨幅为 2.64%。 9月1日是美国劳动节假期。9月2日市场将恢复交易。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in gold and silver futures prices on August 29, driven by technical buying and a sell-off in the U.S. stock market [1] - The December 2025 gold futures price rose by $41.8, closing at $3,516.1 per ounce, marking a 1.20% increase [1] - The December silver futures price increased by 104.7 cents, closing at $40.750 per ounce, with a rise of 2.64% [1] Group 2 - Economic data released on the same day indicated a decline in U.S. consumer confidence, with the University of Michigan's index falling to 58.2 in August, a decrease of approximately 6% from July [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained unchanged at 2.6% year-on-year for July, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [1] - The core inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1]

豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 2025 年 07 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：美豆微涨，连粕或震荡 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 24 日 CBOT 大豆日评：大多合约收涨，受技术性买盘和贸易希望推动。北京德润林 2025 年 7 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4224 -5（-0.12%） | 4221 | +15（+0.36%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3025 -71 （-2.29%） | 3029 -12 | （-0.39%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1025 +2.5（+0.24%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 283.2 -2.4（-0.84%） | n ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 17, CBOT soybean futures closed moderately higher due to active technical buying and strong Chicago soybean oil prices, reaching the highest level since July 7, but the optimistic outlook for US soybean production limited the price increase [3] - The trend strength of both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 is +1, indicating a relatively strong trend for the main - contract futures prices on the day - trading session of the reporting day [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean No. 2509 closed at 4,200 yuan/ton during the day - trading session, up 34 yuan (+0.82%), and 4,215 yuan during the night - trading session, up 21 yuan (+0.50%) [1] - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,029 yuan/ton during the day - trading session, up 51 yuan (+1.71%), and 3,033 yuan during the night - trading session, up 22 yuan (+0.73%) [1] - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,027.25 cents/bushel, up 7.5 cents (+0.74%) [1] - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.7 dollars/short - ton, up 0.6 dollars (+0.21%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 2,880 - 2,920 yuan/ton, remaining flat. Different contract basis prices also remained mostly unchanged [1] - In East China, the price of soybean meal (43%) at Taizhou Huifu was 2,860 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan compared to the previous day. Some contract basis prices remained unchanged [1] - In South China, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 2,870 - 2,950 yuan/ton, up 30 - 60 yuan compared to the previous day. Some contract basis prices remained unchanged [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.81 million tons per day, compared with 4.7 million tons two days ago [1] - The inventory of soybean meal was 84.29 million tons per week, compared with 77.07 million tons the previous week [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 17, active technical buying drove CBOT soybean prices to a more - than - one - week high. The strong rise in Chicago soybean oil prices also supported soybean prices. However, the optimistic outlook for US soybean production limited the price increase as the recent US weather was generally favorable for crop growth and the soybean yield might reach a high in autumn [3]

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the current rise in gold prices include heightened risk aversion due to the downgrade of the US credit rating, geopolitical uncertainties in Europe and the US, global trade tensions, and escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased capital inflow into the gold market [3] - The weakening of the US dollar's credibility is evident as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rise, with US debt surpassing $36 trillion, prompting central banks worldwide to increase gold holdings to mitigate risks associated with dollar assets [3] - Technical buying has been triggered as gold prices surpassed $3,000, leading to algorithmic trading following suit, with gold ETF holdings nearing their peak for the year, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [3] Group 2 - Optimistic analysts, such as those from the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, believe that gold is likely to remain in an upward trend in the medium to long term, with prices potentially reaching $3,350 to $3,700 per ounce by 2025, while Goldman Sachs predicts extreme scenarios could see prices hit $4,500 [3] - Conversely, cautious analysts from the World Gold Council warn of a potential slowdown in growth and short-term pullback pressures, with technical indicators suggesting signals similar to the 2011 peak [3] - There is a long-term consensus that gold retains its strategic value as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset, although short-term volatility risks should be monitored [3] Group 3 - For ordinary investors, it is recommended to allocate 5%-15% of their investable assets to gold to balance risk and return, suggesting that a 10% allocation in a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio can reduce overall volatility [4] - Investment options include physical gold, which is suitable for long-term value retention but incurs transaction costs (buy-sell spread of approximately 5-10 yuan per gram), and gold ETFs or accumulation gold, which offer strong liquidity and lower entry barriers, making them suitable for dollar-cost averaging or risk diversification [5] - High-risk tools such as futures and options are advised against for ordinary investors due to their extreme volatility and potential for significant losses [6] Group 4 - Timing strategies suggest that, given the current high gold prices (London gold at $3,301 per ounce), investors may consider waiting for a pullback to the $2,800-$3,000 range for phased entry [7] - For long-term strategies, monthly dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips is recommended to mitigate the impact of volatility through a "time smoothing" approach [7] Group 5 - Successful case studies include investors who began monthly investments in gold ETFs from 2019, achieving over 250% returns by 2025 [9] - Conversely, a cautionary tale involves a Shenzhen-based merchant who suffered over 100 million yuan in losses due to leveraged trading in gold futures, leading to a payment crisis [9] - Overall, gold remains strategically valuable for 2025, but ordinary investors should avoid chasing high prices, control their positions, and engage in long-term investments or phased buying during market pullbacks [9]

在经历了动荡的一周和一个下跌的月份后，美国股市在星期五的交易中迎来反弹。尽管当天引发了一些地缘风险上升的担忧，但主要股指最终还是上涨。 Blue Chip Daily Trend Report的创始人拉里·坦塔雷利（Larry Tentarelli）表示："在目前这个高度不稳定的市场环境下，任何有关国际局势的新闻都会对股 市产生重大影响，投资者必须时刻警惕。" // 高位美股引市场担忧 // 标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）在星期五上涨了1.59%，收于5954.50点。道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average）上涨601.41点，涨幅为 1.39%，收于43840.91点。纳斯达克综合指数（Nasdaq Composite）上涨了1.63%，收于18847.28点。 美股指数 它 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 43840.91 | 18847.28 | 5954.50 | | +601.41 +1.39% | +302.86 +1.63% | +92.93 +1.59% | | 期货主力 | | | | 10 ...