商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕偏强震荡 豆一：调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 12 月 11 日 CBOT 大豆日评：对华销售大豆，技术买盘活跃，大豆上涨。北京德润林 2025 年 12 月 12 日消息：周四，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货连续第二个交易日上涨，主要反映了技术性买盘 活跃，美国向中国出售大豆，邻池玉米和小麦上涨带来比价支持。美国农业部补发的第七份出口销售数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 国 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | 涨 跌 | （元/吨） | +50（+1.21%） | （-0.46%） | DCE豆一2601 | 4173 | 4148 | -19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

ICE交投最活跃的3月棉花期货合约上涨0.26美分或0.41%，结算价报64.12美分/磅。 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 一、期货 12月10日(周三)，洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货收高，受助于技术性买盘。 美联储周三在1次存在分歧的投票中再次降息，但同时暗示在官员寻求更明确的就业市场和通胀走向信 号之际，可能会暂停进一步降低借贷成本。 旨在支撑美国经济增长的降息举措通常能提振消费支出，进而推升棉花等纺织品需求。 ICE公布数据显示，截至12月9日，ICE可交割的2号期棉合约库存持稳于13971包 汇市：美元指数下跌。股市：美国股市周三收盘走高，此前美联储一如预期降息25个基点，投资者押注 未来将进一步放宽政策，即使联储暗示目前将暂停进一步降息。油市：油价收高，此前有官员称美国在 委内瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油轮，加剧市场对近期供应的担忧。 二、现货 10日CotlookA指数73.95美分/磅，涨25点。 周二该合约终结6连跌走势。 StoneX棉花风险管理顾问BaileyThomen表示："今日市场出现小幅反弹，连续第2日走高。美国农业部供 需报告(WASDE)基本符合预期，未引发市场波动。" 美国农 ...

Core Viewpoint - The intensification of geopolitical risks has heightened market risk aversion, leading to a technical rebound in gold prices after a significant decline of approximately 6.7% over the previous two trading days [1] Group 1 - As of the close on Thursday (23rd), the December gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $4145.6 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 1.97% [1]

Group 1 - The price of December gold futures reached a historical high of $4263.40 per ounce, driven by ongoing safe-haven demand and technical buying [1] - Short-sellers in the gold market are choosing to remain on the sidelines, avoiding aggressive positions [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that if China suspends its strict new export controls on rare earth elements, the U.S. may extend the pause on tariffs on Chinese goods for more than three months [2] - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book reported that U.S. economic activity has remained stable, with employment levels generally steady, but consumer spending has slightly declined amid rising prices [2] - There are mixed views on economic growth prospects, with some respondents expecting demand to rebound in the next 6 to 12 months, while others cite risks such as prolonged government shutdowns [2] Group 3 - The bullish sentiment in December gold futures is currently strong, with the next target for bulls being to push prices above the key resistance level of $4300.00 [3] - The first resistance level is at $4275.00, with further resistance at $4300.00; the first support level is at the overnight low of $4214.50, with additional support at $4200.00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Stable demand for safe-haven assets and technical buying continue to drive gold prices higher, with commodity gold ETFs rising over 2% in early trading [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold ETFs experienced a broad increase of over 2% in early trading due to market influences [1]. - Specific gold ETF prices and their respective changes include: - Gold Fund ETF T+0: 9.451, up 0.255 (2.77%) [2] - Shanghai Gold ETF T+0: 9.878, up 0.263 (2.74%) [2] - Other notable ETFs also showed similar increases, with most around 2.6% to 2.7% [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - Analysts suggest that the ongoing U.S. government "shutdown" and political instability in France are contributing to increased safe-haven buying [2]. - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates that U.S. economic activity has remained stable, with slight declines in consumer spending and rising prices, reinforcing expectations for at least two more rate cuts in the coming months [3].

Core Insights - The December 2025 gold futures price increased by $142.7, closing at $4,344.3 per ounce, marking a 3.40% rise, driven by stable safe-haven demand and technical buying [1] - Both gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with December gold futures opening at $4,392.0 per ounce and December silver futures at $53.765 per ounce [1] - Ongoing uncertainties such as the U.S. government shutdown, escalating U.S.-China tensions, and political instability in France are fueling safe-haven buying [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent "Beige Book" indicates stable economic activity and employment levels, but a slight decline in consumer spending and rising prices, reinforcing expectations of at least two more rate cuts in the coming months [1] Market Dynamics - Analysts from JPMorgan Asset Management suggest favorable supply-demand dynamics indicate significant upside potential for the market [2] - Technically, December gold futures bulls hold a strong overall advantage, with the next upward price target being a breakthrough of the solid resistance level at $4,400, while bears aim to break below the solid support level at $4,000 [2] Silver Market - The December silver futures price rose by $2.052, closing at $53.430 per ounce, reflecting a 3.99% increase [3]

Core Insights - The December 2025 gold futures price increased by $142.7, closing at $4344.3 per ounce, marking a rise of 3.40% [1] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs due to stable safe-haven demand and technical buying [1] - The U.S. government shutdown and escalating tensions between China and the U.S., along with political instability in France, are contributing to increased safe-haven buying [1] Market Dynamics - The December gold futures opened higher in the Asian market, reaching a new historical high of $4392.0 per ounce, while December silver futures hit $53.765 per ounce [1] - The latest Federal Reserve "Beige Book" indicates minimal changes in U.S. economic activity, stable employment levels, but a slight decline in consumer spending and rising prices, reinforcing expectations of at least two more rate cuts in the coming months [1] - Analysts from JPMorgan Asset Management suggest favorable supply-demand dynamics indicate significant upside potential for the market [1] Technical Analysis - December gold futures bulls hold a strong overall technical advantage, with the next upward price target being a breakthrough of the solid resistance level at $4400 [2] - The next downward price target for bears is to break below the solid technical support level at $4000 [2] Silver Market - The December silver futures price rose by $2.052, closing at $53.430 per ounce, with a gain of 3.99% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market is experiencing a significant increase in prices due to rising safe-haven demand and technical buying, with December 2025 gold futures reaching a record high of $4235.8 per ounce [1] Group 1: Gold Market - On October 15, 2023, December 2025 gold futures rose by $61.5, closing at $4224.9 per ounce, marking a 1.48% increase [1] - The gold market is influenced by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding a potential U.S. government shutdown, leading to increased safe-haven demand [1] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, suggested that gold could potentially rise to $5000 or even $10000 per ounce under current market conditions, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [1] Group 2: Silver Market - December silver futures also saw an increase, rising by $1.903 to close at $52.525 per ounce, reflecting a 3.76% gain [1] - The silver market is facing a severe supply shortage in London, resulting in prices significantly higher than those in New York, leading to a phenomenon known as "short squeeze" [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The bullish position in December gold futures shows strong overall technical advantages, with the next upward target being a breakthrough of the solid resistance level at $4300 [1] - Conversely, the bearish position has a near-term downward target of breaking below the solid technical support level at $4000 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market saw a significant increase in prices, with December 2025 gold futures rising by $41.8 to close at $3,516.1 per ounce, marking a 1.20% increase. Silver futures also experienced a rise, closing at $40.750 per ounce, up 2.64% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - December gold futures surged due to technical buying and a sell-off in the U.S. stock market, breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark and reaching a three-week high [1]. - The increase in gold prices was supported by economic data released on the same day, indicating a favorable market environment for precious metals [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August was reported at 58.2, a decline of approximately 6% from July, marking the first decrease in four months [1]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.6%, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. The core inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in gold and silver futures prices on August 29, driven by technical buying and a sell-off in the U.S. stock market [1] - The December 2025 gold futures price rose by $41.8, closing at $3,516.1 per ounce, marking a 1.20% increase [1] - The December silver futures price increased by 104.7 cents, closing at $40.750 per ounce, with a rise of 2.64% [1] Group 2 - Economic data released on the same day indicated a decline in U.S. consumer confidence, with the University of Michigan's index falling to 58.2 in August, a decrease of approximately 6% from July [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained unchanged at 2.6% year-on-year for July, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [1] - The core inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1]