Core Views - Trump and Zelensky reported a good atmosphere in their talks; Trump also spoke with Putin, and both sides supported direct negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Li Qiang stated that effective measures will be taken to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, cultivate and expand service consumption, and increase efforts to expand effective investment. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial support for technology and consumption. The market is strong, and it is recommended to use the T+0 feature of stock index futures, maintain positions, closely monitor market trends, lock in positions when a downward trend appears based on technical analysis, earn profits during the period of rising market sentiment, and stabilize profits when the trend is unfavorable [1]. - Considering the absolute levels, the yield of 30-year old bonds has risen to 2.15%, and the yield of newly issued 30-year local bonds has adjusted to over 2.32%, which is sufficient to cover the lowered liability costs of insurance funds, helping to attract insurance fund allocation. Meanwhile, there is a demand for corrective movement in the technical analysis of the equity market. The bond market may experience a slight recovery due to the "return to loose" liquidity conditions and a slight decline in equity market sentiment [2]. Strategy Recommendations - For stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. Market Review Stock Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.82%, SSE 50 rose 0.08%, CSI 500 rose 1.28%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.58% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10-year main contract fell 0.29%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.21%, the 30-year main contract fell 1.33%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.04% [6]. Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short-term high [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The KDJ indicator shows that the T contract may rebound [6]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Type | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,237.80 | 0.82 | 99,705 | 168,841 | | 2025-08-18 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,848.40 | 0.08 | 52,884 | 74,907 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,608.00 | 1.28 | 83,689 | 129,184 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 7,184.40 | 1.58 | 187,694 | 220,587 | | 2025-08-18 | 10-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.02 | -0.29 | 90,469 | 107,322 | | 2025-08-18 | 5-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.46 | -0.21 | 70,226 | 86,134 | | 2025-08-18 | 30-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 116.09 | -1.33 | 141,981 | 61,613 | | 2025-08-18 | 2-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.30 | -0.04 | 46,079 | 61,412 | [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The short - term outlook for treasury bonds is positive [4] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, China's April social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, the M2 - M1 gap widened, and RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan in the first four months. The establishment of the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" was announced. The North - bound 50 and Flush micro - cap stocks reached new highs, while bank ETFs also neared historical highs, indicating more volatile subsequent stock index movements. Currently, the market index is close to the March high, but the fundamentals, sentiment, hot topics, and trading volume are not as good as in March. It is advisable to adopt a defensive stance and wait for a clear direction [1] - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the market is in a state of multi - empty equilibrium. The trading around short - term tariff issues is almost over. The core issues driving the market are whether funds can remain stable and whether there will be a rebound in production and exports. There is no clear tendency in the game between reality and expectations, and the market trend is rather confusing. It is difficult for the yield to break through the oscillation range since April before the continuous loosening of funds is disproven and the expectation of fundamental improvement is confirmed [3] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2] - For treasury bonds, be bullish in the short term [4] Group 4: Market Review - For stock indices, the futures of the CSI 300 index main contract rose 1.45%, the SSE 50 index main contract futures rose 1.85%, the CSI 500 index main contract futures rose 0.77%, and the CSI 1000 index main contract futures rose 0.77% [6] - For treasury bonds, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.05% [9] Group 5: Technical Analysis - For stock indices, the KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows possible oscillatory movement with adjustment risks [7] - For treasury bonds, the KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows oscillatory movement with a possible rebound [10] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3907.40 | 1.45 | 81957 | 164602 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2737.60 | 1.85 | 48329 | 61472 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5697.80 | 0.77 | 72621 | 117024 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6043.00 | 0.77 | 189515 | 196475 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.12 | 68753 | 126019 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.81 | - 0.13 | 55124 | 104037 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.93 | - 0.23 | 78310 | 59236 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.29 | - 0.05 | 35705 | 59021 | [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there is no consultation or negotiation on tariffs between China and the US. China has strong strategic determination, and the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low. It is advisable to adopt a defensive strategy during the holiday [1] - **Treasury Bond**: During the policy - free window period, there is no clear market guidance, and the bond market is in a calm state. The market is fatigued by the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations under the medium - and long - term logic, and the pricing is gradually weakening. Before clear policy signals or economic data are released, the low - volatility market of the bond market may continue [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.19%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.06%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 fell 0.52%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.97% [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [6] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] Futures Data - On April 28, 2025, detailed data on closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year treasury bond, 5 - year treasury bond, 30 - year treasury bond, and 2 - year treasury bond are provided [9]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Stock Index**: The White House announced that tariffs would take effect after April 2, Carney warned of Canadian counter - measures, Mexico sought to retain exemptions in the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and the EU was ready to retaliate. The US ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time this year, and the price index reached a new high since June 2022. The US labor market slowed moderately, with February JOLTS job openings falling short of expectations. With tariff disturbances approaching and the earnings season, the stock index may be under pressure [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Wednesday's treasury bond issuance will bring some pressure to market expectations, but it's unlikely that the issuance rate will be significantly higher than the secondary - market rate. Overseas tariff issues are highly concerned, and the US is set to announce a reciprocal tariff list early on the 3rd. Due to many uncertainties, it's unwise to make radical unilateral investment operations before relevant news is confirmed. The market is expected to oscillate within a relatively narrow range in the coming period [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index may oscillate weakly under pressure [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profits in a timely manner [4]. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 rose 0.08%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 fell 0.11%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 rose 0.66%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 rose 0.39% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.15%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.04% [9]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a weakly oscillating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating trend [10]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 300 Main Continuation | 3859.60 | 0.08 | 40892 | 150013 | | 2025/03/10 | SSE 50 Main Continuation | 2661.80 | - 0.11 | 20983 | 50237 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 500 Main Continuation | 5850.60 | 0.66 | 42101 | 68724 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 1000 Main Continuation | 6064.20 | 0.39 | 117820 | 159238 | | 2025/03/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 107.76 | - 0.08 | 56787 | 175280 | | 2025/03/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 105.57 | - 0.04 | 39077 | 155058 | | 2025/03/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 116.21 | 0.15 | 100609 | 102436 | | 2025/03/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 102.35 | - 0.04 | 29815 | 96496 | [12]