机构认为，5年国开依然关注活跃券250208和250203，以及5年国开-TF的对冲策略。6-7年利率可以考虑 220205附近国开，250018。30年国债方面，当前新老券利差依然偏高，利率较高的非活跃券具有较好的 持有价值，重点关注250002和25T2，结合流动性预期和博弈机会，建议可以更偏好250002。50年和流 动性较差的30年适合小仓位持有，但当前可能不是最佳时点，如果负债稳定可以考虑。10年国开 250220-250215利差在7BP左右，10年国债可以关注250016-250022利差在1BP左右，两者利差均相对合 理。后续关注250220和250022明年是否会继续续发，如果续发，其利率还有相对下行空间。当前建议更 多关注10年活跃券。浮息债方面，货币基金可以关注25农发清发09。也可以考虑25江苏银行债03BC和 25兴业银行绿色债03。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原 则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the investment strategies regarding government bonds, highlighting that the 10-year government bond 250016 has slightly higher value compared to others, but its cost-effectiveness is relatively average against the National Development and Reform Commission bonds and 30-year government bonds [3] - For the 30-year government bonds, the 25T6 is currently about 4 basis points higher than 25T5 and 8 basis points higher than 25T2, with an expected outstanding scale of 3100-3200 billion yuan, indicating a potential to become the next main bond [3] - The liquidity of 25T6 is gradually improving, and it is anticipated that after the issuance on Friday, it may become the main bond next week, with a potential to continue compressing yield spreads [3] Group 2 - As of September 3, 2025, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds (H21018) increased by 0.10%, while the government bond ETF for the same duration rose by 0.12%, with the latest price at 116.99 yuan [4] - Over the past year, the government bond ETF for 5-10 years has accumulated a rise of 3.55% [4] - The trading activity for the government bond ETF was robust, with a turnover rate of 97.8% and a transaction volume of 1.443 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [4] Group 3 - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has a current scale of 1.477 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 21.65% over the past five years [4] - The fund has shown a maximum monthly return of 2.58% since inception, with a historical profitability rate of 100% over three years [4] - The management fee for the government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, with a tracking error of 0.029% over the past month [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the investment strategy for various bonds, suggesting to avoid certain maturities for government bonds and focus on specific positions for policy bank bonds [1] - The National Development Bank bond ETF (159651) shows a recent price of 106.31 yuan, with a 1.70% increase over the past year as of August 28, 2025 [1] - The liquidity of the National Development Bank bond ETF is noted, with a turnover rate of 1.03% and a transaction volume of 5.29 million yuan on August 28, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The National Development Bank bond ETF has a maximum drawdown of 0.12% over the past six months, which is the smallest among comparable funds [2] - The management fee for the National Development Bank bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest in its category [2] - The tracking error for the National Development Bank bond ETF over the past three months is 0.014%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current investment strategy suggests focusing on rebound opportunities, with priority given to 25T5, 230023, and 250215 which have undergone significant adjustments [1][13] - The 10-year Guokai new and old bond yields are inverted, and 250215 is expected to become the main bond in the short term, presenting good holding odds [1][11] - In the 10-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond's excess value is not strong; while in the 30-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond shows stronger performance [13][18] - Since May this year, the upward range of Guokai bonds has been larger than that of Treasury bonds, and if interest rates continue to rise, the spread of the 10-year variety is likely to widen further [3][34] 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 Individual Bond Trend Differences - On August 19, 2025, the yields of long-term bonds in the bond market oscillated stronger overall. The yield of the main bond 250210 declined more than that of the new bond 250215, and the yields of the second-new and new bonds were inverted [6] - The intraday buying power of 250210 was significantly stronger than that of 250215, possibly due to the difference in trading volume. The current 250210 - 250215 spread is around -1BP [11] 1.2 Analysis of Recent Main Bond Trends and Bond Selection Considerations - For 10-year Guokai bonds, recent main bond trends have been relatively better. The factors influencing individual bond trends include trading power and bond cost-effectiveness [13] - In the 10-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond 250011 has a relatively weaker trend, and the influence of individual bond cost-effectiveness is relatively stronger [14] - In the 30-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond 2500005 has a stronger trend. The current 2500005 - 2500002 spread is around 6 - 7BP [18] - In the medium and short-term segment, for 3 - 5-year interest rate bonds, 240020 and 250003 can be considered for odds, and 250203 and 250208 for trading; floating-rate bonds can focus on 25 Nongfa Qingfa 09 [23] 1.3 Observation of Recent Variety Spread Trends - Since May this year, the upward range of Guokai bonds has been larger than that of Treasury bonds. The spread of 5-year Guokai bonds and Treasury bonds has rapidly increased from around 4BP to 15BP, and the 10-year variety from around 5BP to around 12BP [34] - In the past 5 years, during each interest rate upward cycle, the spread between Guokai bonds and Treasury bonds has widened significantly. If interest rates continue to rise, the spread of the 10-year variety is likely to widen further [34]