1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current investment strategy suggests focusing on rebound opportunities, with priority given to 25T5, 230023, and 250215 which have undergone significant adjustments [1][13] - The 10-year Guokai new and old bond yields are inverted, and 250215 is expected to become the main bond in the short term, presenting good holding odds [1][11] - In the 10-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond's excess value is not strong; while in the 30-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond shows stronger performance [13][18] - Since May this year, the upward range of Guokai bonds has been larger than that of Treasury bonds, and if interest rates continue to rise, the spread of the 10-year variety is likely to widen further [3][34] 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 Individual Bond Trend Differences - On August 19, 2025, the yields of long-term bonds in the bond market oscillated stronger overall. The yield of the main bond 250210 declined more than that of the new bond 250215, and the yields of the second-new and new bonds were inverted [6] - The intraday buying power of 250210 was significantly stronger than that of 250215, possibly due to the difference in trading volume. The current 250210 - 250215 spread is around -1BP [11] 1.2 Analysis of Recent Main Bond Trends and Bond Selection Considerations - For 10-year Guokai bonds, recent main bond trends have been relatively better. The factors influencing individual bond trends include trading power and bond cost-effectiveness [13] - In the 10-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond 250011 has a relatively weaker trend, and the influence of individual bond cost-effectiveness is relatively stronger [14] - In the 30-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond 2500005 has a stronger trend. The current 2500005 - 2500002 spread is around 6 - 7BP [18] - In the medium and short-term segment, for 3 - 5-year interest rate bonds, 240020 and 250003 can be considered for odds, and 250203 and 250208 for trading; floating-rate bonds can focus on 25 Nongfa Qingfa 09 [23] 1.3 Observation of Recent Variety Spread Trends - Since May this year, the upward range of Guokai bonds has been larger than that of Treasury bonds. The spread of 5-year Guokai bonds and Treasury bonds has rapidly increased from around 4BP to 15BP, and the 10-year variety from around 5BP to around 12BP [34] - In the past 5 years, during each interest rate upward cycle, the spread between Guokai bonds and Treasury bonds has widened significantly. If interest rates continue to rise, the spread of the 10-year variety is likely to widen further [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market tumbled again. Despite weak July economic data, the stock market reached 3700 points, suppressing bonds and causing ultra - long bonds to plunge, with the 30 - year Treasury yield hitting a short - term high. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, the term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][43]. - In the short term, the bond market will face a game between expectations and reality. The 10 - year Treasury will oscillate in the range of [1.65%, 1.75%]. The weak real fundamentals support the bond market, while policy changes and investor sentiment suppress it. Currently, the term spread of 30 - year Treasuries and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are both low, with limited spread protection [2][3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market tumbled. Weak economic data in July, including rapid declines in consumption and investment and negative credit growth, were overshadowed by the stock market's rise to 3700 points, which comprehensively suppressed bonds. Ultra - long bonds plunged, and the 30 - year Treasury yield reached a short - term high. Trading activity increased slightly, the term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][43]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury**: As of August 15, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasuries was 29BP, at a historically low level. In July, the economy faced downward pressure, with GDP growth at about 4.3% and deflation risks. The 10 - year Treasury will oscillate in the [1.65%, 1.75%] range. The current term spread is low, with limited protection [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of August 15, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasuries was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year Treasury situation, the short - term bond market faces a game between expectations and reality, and the current variety spread is low, with limited protection [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of July 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 228,873 billion, accounting for 14.7% of all bonds. Local government bonds and Treasuries were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (August 11 - 15, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly, with a total of 565 billion yuan. By variety, Treasuries were 350 billion, local government bonds were 178 billion, etc. By term, 20 - year bonds had the largest issuance at 436 billion [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 2,953 billion. By variety, ultra - long Treasuries are 830 billion, and ultra - long local government bonds are 2,123 billion [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 13,309 billion, accounting for 14.6% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity increased slightly, with the turnover and proportion of most varieties increasing [29]. Yield - Last week, the bond market tumbled. The 30 - year Treasury yield hit a short - term high. Yields of various ultra - long bonds increased, with the 30 - year Treasury yield rising by 9BP to 2.05%, and the 20 - year CDB bond yield rising by 6BP to 2.09% [43]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 29BP, up 3BP from the previous week, at the 12% quantile since 2010 [51]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed and was at a low absolute level. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasuries, and 20 - year railway bonds and Treasuries were 2BP and 6BP respectively, down 3BP and 5BP from the previous week, at the 3% and 4% quantiles since 2010 [52]. 30 - year Treasury Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year Treasury futures contract TL2509 closed at 117.48 yuan, a decline of 1.54%. The total trading volume was 870,600 lots, and the open interest was 151,500 lots, with trading volume increasing significantly and open interest decreasing slightly compared to the previous week [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly due to relatively loose liquidity, increased central bank repurchase operations, and successful issuance of new local bonds with higher yields than comparable old bonds [1][3][10][34]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained quite active [1][3][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, while the variety spread showed mixed trends, and both were at relatively low absolute levels [1][3][4][10]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of August 8, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 26BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy showed resilience in June, but domestic demand was weak. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May, still higher than the annual target. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly in June. With deflation risks remaining, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][11]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of August 8, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Review - The bond market rebounded slightly last week. Factors included relatively loose liquidity, increased central bank repurchase operations, and successful issuance of new local bonds with yields 5BP - 7BP higher than comparable old bonds [1][10][34]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained quite active [1][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][10]. 3.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 3.2.1 30 - year Treasury Bond - As of August 8, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 26BP, at a historically low level [2][11]. - In June, the domestic economy showed resilience, but domestic demand was weak. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May, still higher than the annual target. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly in June. In July, CPI was 0.0% and PPI was - 3.6%, indicating deflation risks [2][11]. - The strong stock market suppresses the bond market sentiment, but the domestic economy still faces downward pressure, and the fundamental factors supporting the bond market have not shown a turning point. The bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the term spread protection is limited [2][11]. 3.2.2 20 - year CDB Bond - As of August 8, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP, at a historically extremely low level [3][12]. - Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the domestic economy showed resilience in June but with weak domestic demand, deflation risks remained, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The variety spread protection is limited [3][12]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of July 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 22.8873 trillion yuan (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.7% of the total bond balance [13]. - Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra - long bonds. Treasury bonds accounted for 26.5%, local government bonds 67.5%, policy - based financial bonds 2.0%, government agency bonds 1.9%, commercial bank sub - debt 0.3%, corporate bonds 0.5%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium - term notes 1.2%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0% [13]. - The 30 - year variety has the highest proportion. Bonds with a remaining maturity of 14 - 18 years accounted for 26.5%, 18 - 25 years 26.9%, 25 - 35 years 40.9%, and over 35 years 5.7% [13]. 3.4 Primary Market 3.4.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (August 4 - 8, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. A total of 140 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued [18]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 82 billion yuan, local government bonds 56 billion yuan, policy - based bank bonds 0 billion yuan, government - supported agency bonds 0 billion yuan, medium - term notes 0 billion yuan, corporate bonds 2 billion yuan, directional instruments 0 billion yuan, enterprise bonds 0 billion yuan, and bank sub - debt 0 billion yuan [18]. - By term, bonds with a 15 - year term accounted for 8 billion yuan, 20 - year 2 billion yuan, 30 - year 130.1 billion yuan, and 50 - year 0 billion yuan [18]. 3.4.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 55.3 billion yuan in total. Ultra - long treasury bonds account for 35 billion yuan, ultra - long local government bonds 17.8 billion yuan, ultra - long corporate bonds 0 billion yuan, ultra - long medium - term notes 2.5 billion yuan, and ultra - long government - supported agency bonds 0 billion yuan [24]. 3.5 Secondary Market 3.5.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 1.119 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.5% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds was 917 billion yuan, accounting for 43.3% of the total treasury bond trading volume; ultra - long local bonds 179.8 billion yuan, accounting for 56.7% of the total local bond trading volume; ultra - long policy - based financial bonds 6.4 billion yuan, accounting for 0.2% of the total policy - based financial bond trading volume; and ultra - long government agency bonds 4.2 billion yuan, accounting for 27.0% of the total government agency bond trading volume [26]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume decreased by 362.7 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 2.5%. Among them, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds decreased by 287.1 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 3.2%; ultra - long local bonds decreased by 42.6 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 1.7%; ultra - long policy - based financial bonds decreased by 5.7 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.2%; ultra - long government agency bonds decreased by 3.1 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 60.7% [26][27]. 3.5.2 Yield - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly. In terms of treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by - 1BP, 0BP, 1BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 1.84%, 1.97%, 1.96%, and 2.00%. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 2BP, 2BP, 1BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 1.96%, 2.02%, 2.06%, and 2.24%. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 0BP, - 1BP, and 1BP respectively, reaching 2.01%, 2.08%, and 2.10%. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by - 2BP, - 1BP, and 2BP respectively, reaching 2.04%, 2.08%, and 2.14% [34]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by 3BP to 1.97%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 4BP to 2.00% [35]. 3.6 Spread Analysis 3.6.1 Term Spread - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 26BP, a change of 2BP from the previous week, and it was at the 10% quantile since 2010 [43]. 3.6.2 Variety Spread - Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed trends, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 5BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 11BP, changing by 1BP and - 1BP respectively from the previous week, and both were at the 7% quantile since 2010 [48]. 3.7 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.32 yuan, an increase of 0.92%. The total trading volume was 602,000 lots (a decrease of 181,003 lots), and the open interest was 152,600 lots (a decrease of 8,080 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest decreased slightly [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly due to relatively loose funding, increased central bank repurchase operations, and successful issuance of new local bonds with higher yields than comparable old bonds [1][3][10][34]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained quite active [1][3][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][3][10]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of August 8, its spread with the 10 - year treasury bond was 26BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy showed resilience in June but with weak domestic demand. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly. With deflation risks still present, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][11]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of August 8, its spread with the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation and deflation risks, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The bond market rebounded slightly last week. Factors included loose funding, increased central bank repurchase, and successful local bond issuance with higher yields on new bonds [1][10][34]. - Trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained active [1][3][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][3][10]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The spread with the 10 - year treasury bond was 26BP as of August 8, at a low historical level. The domestic economy had resilience in June but weak domestic demand. The estimated June GDP growth was 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May. Social consumption and investment growth declined. With 7 - month CPI at 0.0% and PPI at - 3.6%, deflation risks persisted. The bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the term spread protection is limited [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread with the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP as of August 8, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the variety spread protection is limited [3][12]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of July 31, 2025, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 228,873 billion, accounting for 14.7% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties [13]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.5% (60,623 billion), local government bonds 67.5% (154,423 billion), etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion at 40.9% (93,594 billion) [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (August 4 - 8, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, with a total of 1,400 billion issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance decreased [18]. - By variety, treasury bonds were 820 billion, local government bonds 560 billion, etc. By term, 30 - year bonds accounted for the largest share with 1,301 billion [18]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 553 billion. Ultra - long treasury bonds are 350 billion, ultra - long local government bonds 178 billion, etc. [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 11,190 billion, accounting for 13.5% of all bond turnovers. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week [26]. - By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds had a turnover of 9,170 billion, accounting for 43.3% of all treasury bond turnovers; ultra - long local bonds 1,798 billion, accounting for 56.7% of all local bond turnovers, etc. [26]. Yield - The bond market rebounded slightly last week. Yields of different types of ultra - long bonds changed. For example, in treasury bonds, 15 - year yields changed by - 1BP to 1.84%, etc. [34]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by 3BP to 1.97%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 4BP to 2.00% [35]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week but remained at a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 26BP, up 2BP from the previous week, at the 10% quantile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week and remained at a low absolute level. The 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 5BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury bond spread was 11BP, with changes of 1BP and - 1BP respectively from the previous week, at the 7% quantile since 2010 [48]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.32 yuan, an increase of 0.92%. The total trading volume was 602,000 lots (- 181,003 lots), and the open interest was 152,600 lots (- 8,080 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest decreased slightly compared with the previous week [50].

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the bond market, with credit bonds experiencing a larger decline compared to interest rate bonds, particularly in the period from July 18 to July 25, where 3Y and above interest rate bonds rose by 7-9 basis points, while credit bonds fell by 8-12 basis points [1][8][11] - The primary reasons for the market decline include a rebound in equity and commodity prices, a tightening of the funding environment, and increased redemption pressure [1][11][21] - Following the market adjustment, the report suggests that the credit market may enter a slow recovery phase, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect being a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend [2][21][25] Group 2 - The report highlights a seasonal characteristic in credit bond net financing, with supply expected to rise from June to August, followed by a decline in September as corporate financing needs weaken [3][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the credit bond ETF market have led to a slowdown in growth, with some ETFs experiencing a slight contraction in scale [2][15][19] - The report emphasizes that the current credit market is relatively weak, with significant volatility and limited space for narrowing credit spreads, particularly in the short to medium term [3][27]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After crossing the quarter - end, the funding situation returned to ease, overnight interest rates continued to decline to 1.3%, the central bank did not initiate treasury bond transactions in June, and the PMI continued to rise slightly. The bond market resumed its upward trend, with ultra - long bonds rising slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed. Considering the economic data, although the economy showed resilience in May, there are still downward pressures. After the half - year mark, the funding rate declined again, and the probability of the bond market rising is greater. However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are still low, with limited spread protection [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the quarter - end, the funding became looser, overnight rates dropped to 1.3%, the central bank did not trade treasury bonds in June, PMI rose slightly, the bond market went up, and ultra - long bonds had a small increase. Trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still active. The term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][9] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of July 4, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 21BP, at a historically low level. In May, the estimated GDP growth was about 5.0% year - on - year, down 0.1% from April but still above the annual target. With CPI at - 0.1% and PPI at - 3.1% in May, deflation risks remain. Exports declined rapidly in May, and domestic housing prices turned negative month - on - month. After the half - year mark, the funding rate fell again, and the bond market is more likely to rise. However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds is low, with limited protection [2][10] - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of July 4, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 3BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bonds, considering the economic situation in May and the decline in the funding rate after the half - year mark, the bond market is likely to rise. But the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is low, with limited protection [3][11] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion. As of June 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 222,528 billion, accounting for 14.5% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.3%, local government bonds 67.5%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion at 40.4% [12] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 30 - July 4, 2025), ultra - long bond issuance decreased significantly, with a total of 359 billion yuan issued. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 344 billion, and mid - term notes 15 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds accounted for 139 billion, 20 - year for 70 billion, and 30 - year for 151 billion [17] This Week's Scheduled Issuance - This week's announced ultra - long bond issuance plan totals 768 billion. By variety, ultra - long local government bonds account for 748 billion, and mid - term notes 20 billion [22] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bond trading was quite active, with a turnover of 11,010 billion, accounting for 13.1% of all bonds. Trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week. Ultra - long treasury bond turnover decreased by 2,214 billion, and its proportion decreased by 1.5%; ultra - long local bond turnover decreased by 688 billion, and its proportion decreased by 14.1%; ultra - long policy - bank bond turnover increased by 4 billion, and its proportion increased by 0.1%; ultra - long government - agency bond turnover increased by 78 billion, and its proportion increased by 37.2% [24] Yield - After the quarter - end, the funding situation eased, overnight rates dropped to 1.3%, the central bank did not trade treasury bonds in June, PMI rose slightly, the bond market went up, and ultra - long bonds had a small increase. Yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 3BP respectively to 1.79%, 1.89%, 1.85%, and 1.94%. Yields of representative individual bonds also changed, such as the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 special treasury bond 06 yield changing by - 2BP to 1.89% [38][39] Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 21BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 5% percentile since 2010 [45] - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed and was at a low absolute level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 3BP, and between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 7BP, down 1BP and 2BP respectively from the previous week, at the 6% percentile since 2010 [46] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 closed at 121.20 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The total trading volume was 408,900 lots (- 8,046 lots), and the open interest was 151,000 lots (10,690 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly compared to the previous week [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, after the release of May economic data, with the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption reaching 6.4% and the estimated monthly GDP at 5.0%, and the tightening of the capital market, bond yields continued to decline, and non-active ultra-long bonds rose significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and the term spread remained flat while the variety spread widened [1][3][11]. - As of June 20, the spread between 30-year treasury bonds and 10-year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May economic data showed resilience, with an estimated GDP growth rate of about 5.0%, a 0.1% decline from April but still higher than the annual target. With deflation risks, a decline in exports, a negative month-on-month change in housing prices, and a decrease in capital interest rates, the bond market sentiment improved. It is expected that the bond market is more likely to continue rising in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2]. - As of June 20, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bonds, considering the economic situation and market conditions, the bond market is expected to rise in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - After the release of May economic data, with the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption reaching 6.4% and the estimated monthly GDP at 5.0%, and the tightening of the capital market, bond yields continued to decline, and non-active ultra-long bonds rose significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly and was quite active. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread widened [1][11]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of June 20, the spread between 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May economic data showed resilience, with an estimated GDP growth rate of about 5.0%, a 0.1% decline from April but still higher than the annual target. With deflation risks, a decline in exports, a negative month-on-month change in housing prices, and a decrease in capital interest rates, the bond market sentiment improved. It is expected that the bond market is more likely to continue rising in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20-year CDB Bonds**: As of June 20, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bonds, considering the economic situation and market conditions, the bond market is expected to rise in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion. As of May 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 216,823 billion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.1%, local government bonds 67.8%, policy financial bonds 2.1%, government agency bonds 2.0%, commercial bank subordinated bonds 0.2%, corporate bonds 0.5%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium-term notes 1.2%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0%. By remaining term, the 14 - 18-year (inclusive) category accounted for 26.7%, the 18 - 25-year (inclusive) 26.9%, the 25 - 35-year (inclusive) 40.3%, and over 35 years 6.2% [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 16 - 20, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds was relatively small, with a total issuance of 1,147 billion yuan. Compared with the week before last, the total issuance of ultra-long bonds increased significantly. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 500 billion, local government bonds 505 billion, policy bank bonds 0 billion, government-supported agency bonds 0 billion, medium-term notes 30 billion, corporate bonds 113 billion, directional instruments 0 billion, enterprise bonds 0 billion, and bank subordinated bonds 0 billion. By term, 149 billion were issued with a term of 15 years, 684 billion with 20 years, 315 billion with 30 years, and 0 billion with 50 years [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 3,663 billion. By variety, ultra-long treasury bonds account for 710 billion, ultra-long local government bonds 2,788 billion, ultra-long corporate bonds 0 billion, and ultra-long medium-term notes 165 billion [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 11,298 billion, accounting for 11.0% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra-long treasury bonds was 7,764 billion, accounting for 29.8% of the total treasury bond trading volume; ultra-long local bonds 2,799 billion, accounting for 51.4% of the total local bond trading volume; ultra-long policy financial bonds 103 billion, accounting for 0.3% of the total policy financial bond trading volume; and ultra-long government agency bonds 89 billion, accounting for 78.8% of the total government agency bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly compared with the week before last, with an increase of 2,330 billion in trading volume and a 0.1% increase in the proportion. Among them, the trading volume of ultra-long treasury bonds increased by 1,474 billion, but the proportion decreased by 6.3%; the trading volume of ultra-long local bonds increased by 388 billion, and the proportion increased by 3.5%; the trading volume of ultra-long policy financial bonds decreased by 5 billion, and the proportion decreased by 0.1%; the trading volume of ultra-long government agency bonds increased by 66 billion, and the proportion increased by 66.2% [28]. Yield - After the release of May economic data, with the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption reaching 6.4% and the estimated monthly GDP at 5.0%, and the tightening of the capital market, bond yields continued to decline. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year bonds changed by -3BP, -5BP, -1BP, and -5BP to 1.78%, 1.87%, 1.84%, and 1.95% respectively. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year bonds changed by -5BP, -6BP, -1BP, and -5BP to 1.86%, 1.90%, 2.02%, and 2.19% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds changed by -5BP, -4BP, and -4BP to 1.98%, 2.03%, and 2.03% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds changed by -5BP, -4BP, and -4BP to 1.92%, 1.95%, and 2.05% respectively. For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30-year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by -2BP to 1.88%, and the yield of the 20-year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by -5BP to 1.89% [44][45]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the benchmark 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 20BP, unchanged from the week before last, at the 4% percentile since 2010 [53]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the benchmark 20-year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 4BP, and the spread between 20-year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 9BP, with a 0BP and 1BP change from the week before last respectively, at the 6% and 5% percentiles since 2010 [54]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 121.32 yuan, an increase of 0.68%. The total trading volume was 327,300 lots (5,583 lots), and the open interest was 137,700 lots (13,009 lots). The trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared with the week before last [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the future week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care for the capital market and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [1]. - In the future week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [1]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a significant increase in net buying volume in the past week, while rural commercial banks have become the main seller [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Fund Review: The Central Bank Announces Another Injection of Medium - and Long - term Liquidity - In the statistical period (June 9 - 13, 2025), 7 - day reverse repurchase funds of 930.9 billion yuan matured, and the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan for the whole week, and the OMO stock decreased to 858.2 billion yuan. The central bank announced a second - round 40 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation for the next week, achieving a net injection for the whole month [10]. - During the statistical period, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 1.52 basis points due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, in the past week, the net financing of treasury bonds was 262.06 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3.10409 trillion yuan, completing 46.6% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 8.372 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2.00893 trillion yuan, completing 38.6% of the annual plan, with a slowdown in the issuance speed. As of June 13, 1.68 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts had been issued, completing 84.2% of the annual plan [13]. - In terms of capital structure, the lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased significantly to over 4.5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - banking institutions decreased slightly. The DR series declined, with overnight rates operating near the policy rate, and the spread between 7 - day rates and the policy rate narrowed to 10bp. The R series rose, and the liquidity stratification increased slightly but remained at a low level. The capital market showed a situation of "increasing volume and decreasing price" throughout the week, with a marginal tightening feeling on Thursday and Friday, and a balanced feeling for the whole week [15]. 1.2 CD Review: The Secondary - Market Interest Rate of CDs Declined Slightly, and the Demand from Core Buyers Strengthened - In the primary market, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was - 16.226 billion yuan in the statistical period, with a total issuance of 104.137 billion yuan and a maturity of 120.363 billion yuan. In the next three weeks, 102.164 billion, 113.781 billion, and 24.579 billion yuan of inter - bank CDs will mature respectively. The primary issuance rate decreased slightly, with an average issuance rate of 1.6744% (previous value: 1.7106%) [18]. - In the secondary market, core buyers such as funds and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, money market funds changed from selling to buying, large - scale banks continued to reduce their holdings, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks changed from buying to selling, and insurance and other non - banking institutions and other product accounts continued to increase their holdings. The secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by - 1.78BP/ - 2.00BP/ - 1.50BP/ - 1.05BP/ - 0.91BP respectively [20]. 1.3 Next - Week Focus: The Central Bank's Firm Care for the Capital Market and the Marginal Relief of CD Issuance Pressure - In terms of the capital market, the May social financing data showed that the credit demand of residents and enterprises had recovered compared with April, with a weak stabilization of overall credit demand. The increase in government bond supply drove the stable growth of social financing, which is expected to support the key period of fiscal expenditure in June. After the deposit rate cut in May, the phenomenon of deposit transfer emerged, with a significant increase in non - banking deposits. The central bank announced a second - round injection of 40 billion yuan of 6 - month outright repurchase in the middle of the month. Combined with the previous 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright repurchase and the 120 - billion - yuan maturity this month, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases for the whole month was 20 billion yuan. The central bank's small - scale net withdrawal in open - market operations in the past two weeks also showed its care for the capital market. It is expected that the market will price a positive signal on June 16, but the amplitude will be smaller than that on June 6. In the next week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [24]. - In terms of CDs, on the supply side, the net financing of CDs remained negative in the past week. The central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity relieved the liability pressure of banks, and the primary - market interest rate of CDs decreased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from core buyers strengthened marginally, and the secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [25]. 2. Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking Recent Considerations on Institutional Assets and Liabilities - The trends of the active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds deviated significantly at times recently. The main reasons are that the supply rhythms of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds were staggered in June, and the weak sentiment in the primary - market allocation disturbed the secondary - market. Since the beginning of the second quarter, interest rates have mainly fluctuated within a narrow range, and institutions had a strong desire to increase duration to obtain excess returns during the window of loose liquidity at the beginning of June. The trading volume of 30 - year treasury bonds increased more significantly than that of 10 - year treasury bonds. Looking forward, there will be no issuance pressure for 10 - year treasury bonds in the second half of June, and the capital price still shows certain volatility. The window period for institutions to increase duration may end, and the performance of 30 - year treasury bonds may not continue to outperform [27]. - The rotation of the bond - replacement market of China Development Bank (CDB) bonds has been very fast recently. When the bond - replacement of CDB active bonds accelerates, the volatility of new bonds will also increase. Therefore, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds has fluctuated significantly recently. In the short term, old bonds may be safer to avoid volatility [28]. Key Review of Institutional Secondary - Market Transactions - Large - scale banks continued to buy treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, with a buying volume of about 77.6 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a net buying volume of about 160.4 billion yuan in the past week, showing a significant increase. Rural commercial banks have become one of the main sellers, with a net selling volume of about 109.2 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - The main buyers of CDs are money market funds, wealth management products, and other products, while the main sellers are city commercial banks and securities firms [31]. - The net buying volume of main non - banking buyers of credit bonds increased. Funds, wealth management products, and other products were the main net buyers, with funds having the largest increase. Since late March, the net buying volume of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years has been generally stable, while the net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years has fluctuated greatly, and the main non - banking buyers increased their buying volume significantly in the past week [31]. - For secondary - tier capital bonds, funds with a maturity of less than 2 years changed to net sellers, with a net selling volume of about 4.9 billion yuan in the past week, while wealth management products and other products changed to net buyers. The main buyers of 2 - 5 - year secondary - tier capital bonds continued to increase their buying volume, with funds having the largest net buying volume of about 36.2 billion yuan, and the banking system was the main net seller. The trading of 5 - 10 - year secondary - tier capital bonds remained light [31]. High - Frequency Data Tracking of Bond Market Micro - Structure - On June 13, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 5.92bp, and the spread fluctuated and widened. The spread between 1 - year CDB bonds and R001 was 1.87BP, and the yield of short - term bonds was slightly higher than the capital price [33]. - The leverage ratio of the bond market in the week before the holiday was 107.72%, continuing to rise month - on - month [35].

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is in a stalemate and under slight pressure, with ultra - long bonds rising first and then falling. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but it was still quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of May 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically low level. With the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of May 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. With the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, important events included the release of April economic data (the domestic economy declined significantly compared to March but continued to develop positively), a 500 - billion MLF operation in May with a 10BP cut in LPR after half a year, balanced funds during the tax period, and a relatively high winning bid rate for the new 10 - year treasury bond on Friday, which put slight pressure on the bond market. Overall, the bond market was in a stalemate and under slight pressure, with ultra - long bonds rising first and then falling. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of May 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically low level. The April economic data showed resilience, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.8% decline from March but still higher than the annual target. The CPI in April was - 0.1% and PPI was - 2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent easing of Sino - US trade frictions, investors' pessimistic expectations have dissipated. The short - term focus will return to the second - quarter domestic economic data. It is expected that with the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of May 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, with the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 21.1 trillion. As of April 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 21,157.7 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.2% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 25.6% (5,422.3 billion), local government bonds accounted for 68.2% (14,427.6 billion), etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (from May 12 to May 16, 2025), a large amount of ultra - long bonds were issued, with a total of 242.4 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 121 billion, local government bonds accounted for 106.4 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds accounted for 22.9 billion, 20 - year bonds accounted for 37.2 billion, 30 - year bonds accounted for 132.2 billion, and 50 - year bonds accounted for 50 billion [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 111.7 billion yuan. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds account for 0 billion, ultra - long local government bonds account for 104.9 billion, and ultra - long medium - term notes account for 6.9 billion [23]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 861.7 billion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds accounted for 31.4% of the total treasury bond trading volume, ultra - long local bonds accounted for 49.6% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, with the trading volume decreasing by 43.8 billion yuan and the proportion decreasing by 0.5%. Among them, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds decreased by 49.8 billion yuan, the trading volume of ultra - long local bonds increased by 3.1 billion yuan, etc. [26]. 3.3.2 Yield - Due to multiple important events last week, the bond market was in a stalemate and under slight pressure, with ultra - long bonds rising first and then falling. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 2BP, - 1BP, 1BP, and 3BP to 1.88%, 1.98%, 1.89%, and 2.06% respectively. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, 1BP, and 3BP to 1.94%, 2.00%, 2.07%, and 2.30% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, and - 2BP to 2.08%, 2.12%, and 2.11% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by - 3BP, - 4BP, and 0BP to 2.00%, 2.04%, and 2.13% respectively. For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by 1BP to 1.95%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 0BP to 1.98% [33][34]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 17BP, a change of - 3BP from the previous week, at the 1% quantile since 2010 [42]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed trends, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 2BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 5BP, changing by 2BP and - 4BP respectively from the previous week, at the 4% and 2% quantiles since 2010 [46]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.60 yuan, an increase of 0.32%. The total trading volume was 469,900 lots (a decrease of 182,500 lots), and the open interest was 129,300 lots (an increase of 6,141 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [48].