2025 年 11 月 23 日 债券研究周报 [Table_Title] 30 年国债切券的来龙去脉 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 相关报告 《债券研究周报：债市低波横盘的几条线索*颜子 琦，洪子彦》——2025-11-17 《固定收益专题研究：基金拉久期的背后*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2025-11-10 《固定收益点评：美元流动性危机来了吗？*颜子 琦，洪子彦》——2025-11-05 《债券研究周报：11 月债市有哪些机会？*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2025-11-02 《债券研究周报：同业存单已到配置时机*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2025-10-26 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、近期债券市场行情复盘；2、近期机 构行为变化；3、后续债市行情展望。 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 洪子彦 S0350525100001 hongzy@ghzq.com.cn | 1、 | 本周债市点评 | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2、 | 债券收益率曲线跟踪 | ...

美银最新报告揭示了美国科技巨头前所未有的发债狂潮，以及其对信用债市场造成的冲击。 高额发债或成常态，利差已具吸引力？ 展望未来，发债潮似乎并未结束。根据2026年共识预测，不同云巨头面临的融资需求差异显著。Meta和甲骨文的资本支出预计将超过经营现金流减去股 息和股票回购后的可用现金，而谷歌的资本支出预计与可用现金流基本持平。 据追风交易台，美国银行在最新报告中指出，美国五大云计算巨头（亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软、甲骨文）今年迄今的总发行量达到惊人的1210亿美 元，是过去五年平均280亿美元的四倍有余。 这场债券供应洪流对市场造成显著冲击，云巨头债券利差大幅扩大，其中甲骨文利差扩大48个基点，Meta和谷歌分别扩大15和10个基点，明显跑输整体 投资级债券指数。 同时，美银认为，2026年预计供应量维持在1000亿美元左右，不会进一步加速。市场已经消化了供给高峰的冲击，在发行节奏趋于稳定的预期下，当前 被"砸"出的更高收益率，可能为投资者提供了一个难得的切入点。 利差急剧扩大，大幅跑输大盘 自9月以来，五大云计算巨头已累计发行810亿美元的美元投资级债券。加上今年早些时候的零星发债以及10月份270亿美元 ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As of November 3, 2025, private - owned real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds have higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. Yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and financial bond yields have also decreased [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 General Information on Outstanding Credit Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are below 2.55%, while those with yields over 4.5% are from district - level in Guizhou. Private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces like Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian have weighted average valuation yields below 2.9%, and higher - yield varieties are in Guizhou, Yunnan, and Gansu [2]. - Compared with last week, yields of public urban investment bonds have generally declined, with the 3 - 5 - year varieties having an average decline of 9.7BP. Yields of private urban investment bonds have also generally declined, with the 3 - 5 - year varieties having an average decline of 10BP [2]. - Non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds (state - owned enterprises): 3 - 5 - year private non - perpetual and perpetual bonds have declined by 10.2BP and 9.8BP respectively, and the decline of varieties within 1 year is mostly within 5BP. Real estate bonds: yields have all declined, with significant differentiation between within 1 year and over 1 year, and non - perpetual bonds such as 2 - 3 - year state - owned public, 3 - 5 - year state - owned private, and private - owned public have a decline of over 9BP [3][8]. - In financial bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital replenishment tools and leasing company bonds have relatively high valuation yields and spreads. Yields of financial bonds have declined. For example, in leasing bonds, the 2 - 3 - year private perpetual bonds have a yield decline of 9.5BP [4][8]. 3.2 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are low, and those in Guizhou district - level are high. Yields have generally declined compared with last week, and the curve has flattened, with the 3 - 5 - year varieties having a large average decline [2][15]. - Specific varieties with large yield declines include 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Zhejiang provincial level, 2 - 3 - year non - perpetual bonds of Henan district - level, etc. [2][15]. 3.3 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces are low, and those in Guizhou, Yunnan, and Gansu are high. Yields have generally declined compared with last week, with the 3 - 5 - year varieties having an average decline of 10BP [2][23]. - Specific varieties with large yield declines include 3 - 5 - year perpetual bonds of Fujian district - level, 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou prefecture - level, etc. [23].

Group 1 - A key valuation metric for U.S. corporate bonds has reached its highest level in nearly three decades, following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since 2024, prompting investors to lock in still high yields [1] - The risk premium for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds has narrowed to just 72 basis points, marking a new low not seen in decades, with the spread previously touching 73 basis points in August, the lowest since 1998 [1] - High-grade bond average yields are currently at 4.76%, significantly above the average level of approximately 3.6% since 2010 [1] Group 2 - For most of the past three years, average yields have remained above 5% due to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes aimed at curbing post-pandemic inflation, which has driven demand from investors like pension plans that need to fund long-term liabilities [2] - The Federal Reserve's updated economic forecasts indicate two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, which could further lower yields and heighten urgency among some investors [2] - The current environment of tight spreads is considered ideal, with solid fundamentals, strong demand, and no excessive supply pressure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that weaker-than-expected Eurozone GDP data could lead to an expansion of government bond yield spreads in the Eurozone [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - If the preliminary Eurozone GDP data, set to be released at 17:00 Beijing time, is below expectations, it may catalyze an increase in government bond yield spreads [1] - Currently, the yield spread has narrowed as investors view European assets as a safe haven amid trade tensions [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - With the recent trade agreement between Europe and the U.S., the attractiveness of Eurozone government bonds may diminish [1] - The latest data from Tradeweb indicates that the yield difference between Italian and German 10-year government bonds stands at 84 basis points [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Liu Rui [3] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Credit bond issuance and net financing have recovered, and trading activity has increased [1][4] - The science and technology innovation bond market is in the second half, with room for spread compression [4] - Credit strategy focuses on balancing coupon and risk, increasing allocation to short - term high - coupon city investment bonds and 3Y/AAA - secondary capital bonds [6] Summary by Directory Policy and Market Trends - On July 18, 2025, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice on pilot corporate bond re - issuance and asset - backed securities expansion business, aiming to enhance market depth and optimize financing efficiency [4] - The science and technology innovation bond market is in the second half. Driven by the expansion of underlying assets and policy guidance in the second half of the year, there is still room for spread compression [4] Primary Issuance - From July 21 - 25, the issuance amount of general credit bonds was 351 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 70.9 billion yuan; net financing was 128 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 83 billion yuan [4] - Among them, the issuance amount of urban investment bonds was 107.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 10.9 billion yuan; net financing was 29.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 27.5 billion yuan [4] - The issuance amount of industrial bonds was 243.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.1 billion yuan; net financing was 98.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 55.8 billion yuan [4] - The weighted issuance term of general credit bonds was 4.21 years, a week - on - week increase of 0.88 years; the weighted issuance interest rate was 1.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 pct [4] Secondary Trading - The turnover rates of general credit bonds with maturities of less than 1 year and 1 - 3 years increased, while those of other maturities decreased [5] - The turnover rate of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds increased overall, with a significant increase in the AAA - level, and a decrease in the AA+ and AA levels [5] Spread Tracking - As of July 25, the average yields of medium - and short - term notes, urban investment bonds, secondary capital bonds, and perpetual bonds with AAA ratings at various maturities were at historically low levels [5] - For urban investment bonds, most spreads widened, except for some 3 - year and 5 - year varieties [5] - For bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, the spreads of 3Y and 5Y levels widened, while the 1Y spread narrowed [5] - Regionally, most provincial urban investment bond spreads widened, with Heilongjiang having the largest widening amplitude of 11BP [5] - In the industrial bond sector, most industry spreads narrowed or remained flat, except for the AA - level chemical and AA - level building materials industries [6] Credit Strategy - Balance coupon and risk, and give priority to short - term high - rating varieties. Pay attention to liquidity premium opportunities at the ultra - long end and beware of policy and credit event disturbances [6] - Increase allocation to short - term high - coupon urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a duration of less than 3 years [6] - Enter the ultra - long - term credit bond market after interest rate adjustments, and focus on the liquidity premium of insurance sub - debt and science and technology innovation bond ETF component bonds [6] - For bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, pay attention to changes in the capital market and the overall sentiment of the credit bond allocation end when considering sector games [6]

Group 1 - The spread of high-grade dollar bonds in Asia has widened by at least 2 basis points [1] - The credit default swaps in Asia have also increased by at least 2 basis points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 20Y Treasury bond market may not be over yet, with potential for the 20Y - 30Y spread to compress further, and the 20Y Treasury bond may be more cost - effective than the 50Y Treasury bond [2][3][12] - Investors can look for opportunities in some old bonds with certain liquidity and spread compression potential, but the follow - up odds of 230023 may be insufficient [3][13] - In the current bond market environment of extending duration and increasing leverage, there is no need to overly worry about reversal risks before the end of the month, and attention should be paid to the right - side response after sudden event shocks [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review: Which Bonds Can Be Explored? - **Yield Curve**: Both Treasury and China Development Bank bond yields generally declined. For Treasury bonds, the 1Y yield dropped 4bp, 3Y dropped 3bp, 5Y dropped 4bp, 7Y dropped about 2bp, 10Y changed less than 1bp, 15Y dropped 3bp, and 30Y dropped 1bp. For China Development Bank bonds, the 1Y yield dropped about 1bp, 3Y dropped 2bp, 5Y dropped 3bp, 7Y and 10Y dropped about 2bp, 15Y dropped 5bp, and 30Y remained flat [15] - **Term Spread**: Treasury bond spreads showed deeper inversion and short - end spreads widened, while China Development Bank bond spreads had a differentiated trend with long - end spreads widening [18][19] 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Conditions - **Leverage Ratio**: The leverage ratio rose to 107.85%. As of June 20, it was about 107.85%, up 0.38pct from last Friday and 0.35pct from this Monday [21] - **Average Daily Repo Turnover**: The average daily turnover of pledged repos was 8.3 trillion yuan, with an average overnight share of 89.71%. The average daily turnover increased compared to last week [28] - **Funding Conditions**: Bank funding supply fluctuated upward. DR007 first rose and then fell, R007 first fell and then rose. 1YFR007 and 5YFR007 both declined [33][34] 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds rose to 2.82 years (de - leveraged) and 3.07 years (including leverage). On June 20, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.82 years, up 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) was 3.07 years, up 0.11 years from last Friday [44] - **Duration of Bond Fund Types**: The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) remained at 3.69 years, up 0.02 years from last Friday; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) rose to 2.88 years, up 0.15 years from last Friday [47] 3.4 Comparison of Generic Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: The overall Sino - US yield spread widened. The 1Y spread narrowed by about 2bp, while the 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y spreads widened [51] - **Implied Tax Rate**: The short - end implied tax rate widened, while the medium - and long - end narrowed [52] 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balances On June 20, the lending concentration trends of the active 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose, while those of the second - active 10Y Treasury bond, the active 10Y China Development Bank bond, and the second - active 10Y China Development Bank bond declined [57]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a shift towards a more optimistic market outlook following breakthroughs in US-China trade negotiations, leading analysts to revise their annual forecasts positively [1][3] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and JPMorgan are observing a rapid increase in risk assets, which has driven up corporate bond valuations and attracted a significant influx of borrowers into the market [1][3] - Barclays strategists believe that the recent easing of trade tensions represents a significant and lasting change in the economic backdrop, predicting a further narrowing of spreads in the short term [1][3] Group 2 - Investment-grade bond spreads are projected to narrow to a lower limit of 95 basis points by year-end, a reduction of 25 basis points from March forecasts [3] - For high-yield bonds, Barclays anticipates spreads will narrow to 325 basis points by the end of 2025, a decrease of 75 basis points from previous estimates [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the risk premium for US investment-grade bonds to narrow by about 20 basis points by year-end, while high-yield bonds are expected to narrow by approximately 100 basis points, with both figures remaining relatively stable compared to current levels [3] Group 3 - Recent trading days have seen investment-grade bond spreads narrow by 8 basis points, marking the largest two-day decline since March 2023; junk bond spreads also experienced significant declines, the largest since November 2020 [4]

Core Insights - The offshore bond market for Chinese entities has seen a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with issuance increasing by nearly 70% compared to the end of last year [1][2] - The net financing gap has narrowed dramatically from -21.385 billion USD in Q1 2024 to -5.363 billion USD in Q1 2025 [2] Group 1: Issuance and Financing - In Q1 2025, a total of 301 offshore bonds were issued, amounting to approximately 72.669 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.14% in quantity and 67.50% in scale [2] - By bond type, government bonds accounted for about 20.4 billion USD (38%), local government bonds for about 15.4 billion USD (24%), financial bonds for about 7.5 billion USD (12%), real estate bonds for about 4.169 billion USD (6%), and industrial bonds for about 12.6 billion USD (20%) [2] Group 2: Currency and Issuance Methods - The issuance included 87 offshore RMB bonds, 141 USD bonds, 68 HKD bonds, 3 EUR bonds, 1 AUD bond, and 1 JPY bond [3] - The majority of bonds were directly issued (202), with 46 being guaranteed issues, and various combinations of issuance methods were also utilized [3] Group 3: Market Conditions and Costs - Despite the recovery in issuance, financing costs in the offshore market remain higher than in the domestic market, with USD bond issuance rates approximately 3 percentage points higher than domestic credit bonds [4] - The average issuance rate for domestic credit bonds is around 2.2%, while the cost for Chinese USD bonds ranges from 3.6% to 8.5%, with an average of 5.1% [4] Group 4: Market Performance - The overall return rate for Chinese USD bonds in Q1 2025 was 2.49%, with investment-grade and high-yield bonds returning 2.70% and 3.85% respectively [5] - The real estate sector showed the highest return rate at 6.51%, followed by financial and local government bonds at 1.85% and 1.74% respectively [5] Group 5: Future Outlook and Debt Pressure - There remains significant debt repayment pressure in the coming year, particularly in Q3 2025, with repayment needs of 13.193 billion, 11.904 billion, and 24.046 billion USD [11] - The total repayment demand for Chinese offshore bonds in 2025 is projected to be at a three-year high, with 199.2 billion and 163.7 billion USD maturing in 2025 and 2026 respectively [14]