Core Viewpoint - TSMC's production lines are nearing full capacity due to unprecedented demand for its 3nm and 5nm processes, driven primarily by mobile and HPC customers amid the AI boom [2][3]. Group 1: Demand and Market Dynamics - TSMC is experiencing strong demand across all its processes, particularly from major clients like NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple, who are integrating TSMC's chips into their consumer products [3]. - The 3nm and 5nm production lines are expected to be fully booked by next year, with a significant portion allocated to mobile and HPC clients [3][4]. - The tight supply of wafers has made it increasingly difficult for tech giants to secure chips, indicating a shift in the semiconductor market where chips are viewed as a scarce resource [4]. Group 2: Future Projections and Investments - TSMC may be compelled to raise process prices to manage demand and expand its production lines, with plans for the N3 process to commence in Arizona, requiring substantial investment [4]. - The demand for the 5nm node is also robust, with reports suggesting that companies like Apple have pre-booked a significant portion of capacity well ahead of the 2nm process launch [4]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The semiconductor industry is heavily reliant on TSMC, making it one of the most critical assets for companies worldwide, which has prompted the U.S. government to seek diversification of production away from Taiwan [4].

Group 1 - TSMC approved a capital budget of approximately $15.2 billion for advanced process capacity and other developments [1][2] - TSMC's new factories in the US have been fully booked by major clients such as Apple, Nvidia, and AMD, leading to a nearly 6% increase in TSMC's stock price [1][4] - TSMC's revenue for April reached approximately NT$349.57 billion, a 22.2% month-over-month increase and a 48.1% year-over-year increase [4] Group 2 - The company reported a net profit of approximately NT$361.56 billion for Q1 2025, with earnings per share of NT$13.94 [2] - TSMC's revenue for the first four months of 2025 totaled approximately NT$1.1888 trillion, a year-over-year increase of 43.5% [4] - TSMC's board approved a cash dividend of NT$5 per share for Q1 2025 [2] Group 3 - The US government is preparing to allow Saudi Arabia to access advanced semiconductors, enhancing the country's ability to procure chips from companies like Nvidia and AMD [7][9] - A potential agreement with UAE's G42 for the supply of US-designed AI chips is also in the works, which may be finalized soon [8] - These agreements indicate a shift in US policy towards exporting advanced technology to the Gulf region [7][8]

每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 交银国际研究 今日焦点 | 台积电 | | TSM US | | --- | --- | --- | | 先进制程优势在扩大，首予买入 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 美元 176.52 目标价: | 美元 225.00 | 潜在涨幅: +27.5% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 产品周期与供需周期均利于业绩稳定增长。从产品周期角度看，我们认 为台积电新产品单价打破之前上市后逐渐下滑的趋势，公司对于半导体 设计厂商客户的议价能力或在增强，3 纳米工艺芯片或不会在 2 纳米上 市前后降价。 从全球先进制程的供需关系看，我们认为之前以智能手机为主导的先进 制程需求正转化为手机和高性能计算需求竞争供给的格局。我们认为全 球先进制程芯片或进入一个长于之前周期的上行周期，而作为全球高端 智能手机芯片和人工智能加速芯片的主要甚至唯一供应商，台积电或进 一步受益。 进入 2 纳米时代技术优势或继续扩大。我们认为台积电在先进制程和先 进封装技术上的优势或在扩大。我们认为 2 纳米工艺相对之前的 3 纳米 工 ...