公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源 ：内容来自经济日报 。 不受英特尔获得美国政府入股近10%影响，苹果、超微、英伟达、博通等美系大厂持续拥抱台积电， 希望台积电美国亚利桑那州厂产能建置催油门，传出台积电因应大客户需求，亚利桑那州二厂、三厂 量产时程都将提前。 至截稿为止，台积电没有评论传闻。消息人士透露，台积电美国亚利桑那州第一座厂原订2025年量 产，先前已提早于2024年第4季以4纳米量产；第二座厂原定2028年量产，正加速脚步，目标2027年 初期或2026年内量产；第三座厂最快可望提早于2028年前后量产N2和A16制程，整体可望比原订目 标提早至少四个季度。 台积电先进制程遭客户疯抢，英伟达执行长黄仁勋上周五（22日）闪电来台，与台积电董座魏哲家见 面，洽谈英伟达下一代更先进的Rubin平台生产。黄仁勋并透露，目前Rubin平台有六种产品设计定 案并下单台积电，包括CPU、GPU、NVLINK交换器芯片、网通芯片与交换器芯片，以及矽光子交换 器芯片等。 业界指出，不仅英伟达大力拥抱台积电，OpenAI等AI巨头对台积电埃米级制程需求也快速成长，委 由台积电重要客户博通、迈威尔（M ...

同时，就算明年量产业务大增，世芯也有信心2026年的毛利率会至少等于或超越2024年的毛利率。 值得注意的是，世芯指出，随着上述3纳米制程案件量产，以及在下一代芯片案件获得青睐，直到2029 年，关乎这家关键客户的前景不但强健且有延续性。虽然在法人追问之下，该公司仍没有进一步透露与 客户在下一代芯片合作案的细节，但表达对于2纳米制程案件的想法已经更为乐观与正向。 世芯坦言，今年前述5纳米制程AI加速器需求不尽理想，预期到今年底前，季营收表现将相对平稳，不 过下半年会有多个3纳米制程案件启动，同时也会有2纳米制程案件可望开始进行。因为委托设计 （NRE）收入增加、主要供应商的价格支持等因素，所以毛利率预期将有所改善。 展望后续营运，除了上述北美云端服务客户3纳米制程AI芯片将于本季设计定案、明年首季量产，世芯 提到，在ADAS车用芯片方面也有进展，终端客户对于成果颇为满意，也下了大量订单，预期明年将成 为其营收的三大来源之一。 特殊应用IC（ASIC）设计服务业者世芯（3661）于13日举行法说会，释出的展望呈现短空长多状态， 今年北美IDM客户的5纳米制程AI加速器案件需求不尽理想，但将会开始有2纳米制程案件 ...

所幸台积电由于在美国投资设厂，可豁免于特朗普半导体关税。但特朗普表示，台湾"将在亚利桑那州 投资3,000亿美元，兴建全世界最大工厂"，几乎比台积电之前承诺投资的1,650亿美元倍增。这显示双方 有待进一步磋商。 专栏作家索贝琪指出，特朗普可能明白，对台积电重课超高的关税，也将重创美国科技雄心。美国要维 持凌驾中国大陆的科技领先优势，有赖英伟达、苹果等科技巨人，他们都是台积电大客户。加征新关税 也不利特朗普推行的AI基建计划"星际之门"（Stargate），因为该计划必须用上数十万颗尖端芯片。 索贝琪指出，台积电在美斥资数十亿美元扩张，延展台积电的全球足迹。 晶圆代工龙头台积电（2330）熬过漫长的一周，商业机密遭窃和美国关税威胁再起，让台湾的"矽盾"看 似弯曲但不致断裂，因为人工智能（AI）淘金热正盛，多年打下的根基可让台积电屹立不摇。 台积电先进制程技术令全球称羡，也让台积电主管头大。上周消息传出，台积电开除数名涉嫌窃取2纳 米制程技术的员工，紧接着美国总统特朗普威胁要对进口芯片重课100%关税。 最先进的2纳米制程机密外泄，或许是更令台积电头痛的问题。据悉除了台积电内贼外，涉案的还包括 东京威力科创的离 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - TSMC's management has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance from approximately 25% to 30% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in gross margin at 58.6%, surpassing previous expectations [1][2] - The company anticipates that the demand for AI chips will increase due to the U.S. government's relaxation of export restrictions, which is expected to drive the demand for advanced process technologies [2] - TSMC plans to ramp up production of its 2nm process technology in the second half of 2025, with expectations that the volume of 2nm wafers will exceed that of 3nm and 5nm wafers during the same period [2] Group 2: Financial Projections - The target price for TSMC has been raised to $280, reflecting a potential upside of 17.9% from the closing price of $237.56, based on a 26x average P/E ratio for 2025/26 [1][2] - Adjustments to earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been made, with new projections set at 59.5 and 65.5 New Taiwan Dollars, down from previous estimates of 60.8 and 69.6 New Taiwan Dollars [2] Group 3: Market Context - The report highlights that the recovery in consumer electronics is expected to be moderate due to trade uncertainties, but the high demand for AI is likely to sustain TSMC's pricing for 3nm and 5nm technologies [2] - The global semiconductor market is projected to see 30% of its capacity in processes below 2nm being produced in the U.S. in the long term [2]

Group 1 - Honda has decided to halt the development of new electric vehicles, which is surprising given the competitive landscape where rivals like Volkswagen, Toyota, and Nissan are advancing their electric solutions [3][4] - The decision to stop electric vehicle development may be influenced by the recent termination of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit in the U.S., prompting Honda to adopt a strategy of timely loss mitigation [3][4] - Honda's previous collaboration with Sony to form a new mobility company has not yielded significant results, with reported operational losses of 52 billion yen (approximately 2.6 billion RMB) [4] Group 2 - Honda is preparing to invest in the Japanese chip manufacturer Rapidus to secure a domestic supply of chips for its next-generation vehicles, with the investment expected to reach several billion yen [5][6] - The partnership with Rapidus aims to ensure a stable supply of automotive chips and is part of a broader strategy to reduce chip procurement costs by 20% and overall electric drive system costs by 30% [7][8] - The investment in chip development reflects a shift in the automotive industry towards high-value chip production, as traditional automakers evolve from hardware integrators to collaborative developers of software and hardware [7][8] Group 3 - Honda's decision to pause electric vehicle development while investing in automotive chips is seen as a cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancing move, aiming to maintain cash flow and build future competitiveness [7][8] - The investment in Rapidus signifies a strategic shift towards "technological sovereignty," moving from reliance on external supply chains to controlling the production of critical automotive chips [8] - Honda's actions may provide insights for traditional automakers navigating the crossroads of electrification and intelligent technology in the global automotive industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - Samsung has delayed the production plans for its Texas Taylor factory due to insufficient customer demand and misalignment with current semiconductor technology needs [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Expansion Plans - Samsung initially invested $17 billion in the Taylor factory, which is set to double to $44 billion by 2024, including the construction of an advanced facility and expansion of R&D efforts [1]. - The factory's construction is reported to be 92% complete as of March 2024, with the completion date pushed from the original schedule to October [1][2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Competition - The originally planned 4nm process node for the factory is facing low demand, leading to a shift towards a more advanced 2nm process to compete with TSMC and Intel [1][2]. - TSMC currently holds a dominant position in the global foundry market with a market share of approximately 68%, while Samsung's market share stands at 7.7% [2]. Group 3: Challenges in Production and Technology - The transition to 2nm manufacturing involves significant costs and complexities, including the need for advanced equipment like EUV lithography machines [3][4]. - Samsung's chip manufacturing division is reportedly facing yield issues, which has led to the recall of key personnel and limited on-site staff [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Geopolitical changes and U.S. restrictions on high-end chip production in China have added pressure on Samsung, resulting in lower capacity utilization compared to industry averages [4]. - Despite the challenges, Samsung aims to continue the construction of the Taylor factory by 2026, as operationalizing the facility is crucial for accessing funding from the CHIPS Act [5].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC and Samsung are set to produce the industry's most advanced 2nm chips in the second half of this year, with TSMC having a competitive edge due to higher yield rates compared to Samsung [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's 2nm Process - TSMC has begun receiving orders for its 2nm process and plans to produce these chips at its Hsinchu and Kaohsiung facilities, utilizing GAA architecture which is expected to improve performance by 10% to 15% and reduce power consumption by 25% to 30% [1][4]. - Major clients for TSMC's 2nm chips include Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek, with MediaTek's CEO hinting at a product design completion by September [1][4]. - TSMC's 2nm defect density has reportedly surpassed that of its 5nm and even 7nm and 3nm processes, indicating a high level of technological maturity [4][5]. Group 2: Samsung's 2nm Process - Samsung aims to start producing 2nm chips in the second half of the year, likely for its Galaxy S26's Exynos 2600 processor, but faces challenges with a lower yield rate of approximately 40% compared to TSMC's 60% [2][1]. - Samsung is leveraging its previous experience with GAA architecture from its 3nm production to improve the yield of its 2nm chips [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Future Plans - TSMC's 2nm process is entering trial production, with plans to ramp up to a monthly capacity of 30,000 wafers by the end of 2025, and potentially expand to 120,000 to 130,000 wafers by 2027 [5]. - TSMC is investing over 1.5 trillion NTD to expand its facilities in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, aiming to create the world's largest semiconductor manufacturing hub [5].

Core Viewpoint - The competition between TSMC and Samsung in the production of advanced 2nm chips is intensifying, with TSMC currently having a higher yield rate, which poses a challenge for Samsung in attracting orders [1][2][3]. Group 1: TSMC's 2nm Progress - TSMC has begun receiving orders for its 2nm process and is expected to start production in H2 2023 at its facilities in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung [1][3]. - The 2nm process utilizes Gate-All-Around (GAA) architecture, which is anticipated to improve performance by 10% to 15% and reduce power consumption by 25% to 30% compared to the 3nm process [1][3]. - Major clients for TSMC's 2nm chips include Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek, with MediaTek's CEO hinting at a product design completion by September 2023 [1][3]. Group 2: Samsung's 2nm Challenges - Samsung aims to start producing 2nm chips in H2 2023, likely for its upcoming Galaxy S26 flagship device, but its yield rate is reportedly around 40%, significantly lower than TSMC's 60% [2][3]. - Samsung is leveraging its previous experience with GAA architecture to improve its 2nm yield rates and attract orders from major tech companies [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Future Plans - TSMC's 2nm process is entering trial production, with plans to ramp up to a monthly capacity of 30,000 wafers by Q4 2025, and potentially expand to 120,000 to 130,000 wafers per month by 2027 [4]. - TSMC is investing over 1.5 trillion NTD to expand its facilities in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, aiming to create the world's largest semiconductor manufacturing hub [4].

Group 1 - TSMC approved a capital budget of approximately $15.2 billion for advanced process capacity and other developments [1][2] - TSMC's new factories in the US have been fully booked by major clients such as Apple, Nvidia, and AMD, leading to a nearly 6% increase in TSMC's stock price [1][4] - TSMC's revenue for April reached approximately NT$349.57 billion, a 22.2% month-over-month increase and a 48.1% year-over-year increase [4] Group 2 - The company reported a net profit of approximately NT$361.56 billion for Q1 2025, with earnings per share of NT$13.94 [2] - TSMC's revenue for the first four months of 2025 totaled approximately NT$1.1888 trillion, a year-over-year increase of 43.5% [4] - TSMC's board approved a cash dividend of NT$5 per share for Q1 2025 [2] Group 3 - The US government is preparing to allow Saudi Arabia to access advanced semiconductors, enhancing the country's ability to procure chips from companies like Nvidia and AMD [7][9] - A potential agreement with UAE's G42 for the supply of US-designed AI chips is also in the works, which may be finalized soon [8] - These agreements indicate a shift in US policy towards exporting advanced technology to the Gulf region [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - AMD has reportedly abandoned its 4nm orders with Samsung Foundry, likely shifting to TSMC due to Samsung's underperformance in the semiconductor industry [1][2]. Group 1: AMD's Shift in Partnerships - AMD has decided to forgo its 4nm orders with Samsung and is expected to turn to TSMC for production in the U.S. [1] - The specific reasons for this shift have not been disclosed, but it is likely linked to Samsung's poor performance and TSMC's attractive offerings [1]. - AMD's dual-sourcing strategy involved extensive collaboration with Samsung on the SF4X process, covering EPYC server CPUs, Ryzen APUs, and Radeon GPUs [1]. Group 2: Samsung's Market Position - Samsung's foundry business is struggling to gain industry recognition despite its diverse product range and substantial capacity [1]. - The exit of a major partner like AMD is a negative signal for Samsung, which needs to enhance its reputation in the chip industry [1]. - However, there are indications that companies like NVIDIA are interested in Samsung's 2nm process, suggesting potential future opportunities [2]. Group 3: TSMC's Advancements - TSMC's Arizona facility is currently mass-producing 4nm processes, and AMD is likely to enter this field following its agreement with TSMC [2]. - AMD has ordered high-end 2nm "Venice" server CPUs and is producing the Ryzen 9000 series consumer CPUs, indicating a significant shift in its collaboration with TSMC [2]. - AMD is one of the first companies to gain exclusive rights to the 2nm process, highlighting a transformative change in its partnerships [2].