Core Insights - As of July 4, 2025, the interest rate timing model has maintained a bullish signal since June, indicating a stable upward trend in the bond market [1][10] - The model's predictions align with the actual performance of the TL bond, which rose by 1.01 yuan, a 0.85% increase in June [1][10] Model Performance Review - The timing model effectively identified multiple buying windows in 2024, with a high correlation between predicted results and periods of declining interest rates [2][11] - Since May 14, 2024, the strategy's net value reached 1.179, outperforming the benchmark net value (TL) by a cumulative excess of 4.22% [2][17] - The model demonstrated strong excess return capabilities during bullish cycles but showed significant drawdowns during bearish periods, indicating a need for improvement in recognizing short-selling scenarios [2][14][17] Subsequent Optimization - The model's performance in bearish market conditions is limited due to insufficient training data from the newly listed 30-year Treasury futures (TL) [2][18] - To enhance the model's ability to identify bearish trends, historical data from the 10-year Treasury futures (T), which has a high price correlation with TL, will be utilized for training [2][19]

——笔记哥《交易》 我们总是明明做错了，亏钱了，但总找借口拖延止损，每天都去收集好消息以支持自己这么做，让自己每天都在充满希望、懊悔、愤怒中度过，甚至当收 益率上行到一定位置时，还认为已经上这么高了，差不多了，然后再加仓买入，美其名曰"摊薄成本"，实则错上加错。 股市多头：你们不是天天说资产荒吗？怎么资产突然不荒了？ 债市多头：资产荒不荒我不知道，我是真TM慌了。 【笔记20250224— 资产荒不荒？慌！（-？-资金紧张午后转松-基金赎回增加=中上)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展2925亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1905亿元逆回购到期。净投放1020亿元。 资金面先紧后松，资金价格仍偏贵，DR001在1.88%附近、DR007在 2.06%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (b ...

我们总是对盈利零容忍，而对亏损却很放纵。一小赚就跑，一亏就死扛，总是在"入场亏损 - 持有死扛 - 解套就跑"的小赚大亏中循环着，能扛到解套还算幸运，很多人都是在扛不住大亏时，悔恨离场，似乎 天生是来给市场送钱的，而不是来赚钱的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250205— DeepSeek版：TL赠与我的（+关税担忧+PMI数据低于预期+午后资金面转松+股市下 跌=中下)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展6970亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有14135亿元逆回购到期。净回笼7165亿元。 上午资金面均衡略偏紧，午后转松，资金价格偏贵。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 05) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. ...