明明：综合判断，我们预计2026年我国GDP的增长目标仍会处于世界主要经济体的领先位置。 以下为对话全文，经21世纪经济报道记者整理。 谈国内经济整体预期： 财政政策将保持温和扩张 从驱动因素看，财政发力以及政策协同下的内需回暖和投资止跌回稳将是主要支撑；挑战则在于房地产 市场持续调整的影响、居民和企业信心修复节奏以及外部环境的不确定性。 21世纪经济报道记者余纪昕 2025年，国内资本市场表现出强劲韧性与活力。权益市场主要指数一度突破4000点，科技、银行等板块 表现亮眼；股债轮动之下，资金流向持续变化。站在"十五五"起点，中央经济工作会议已为2026年作出 部署，稳增长政策有望持续加码，市场信心有望进一步提升。同时，如何更好释放消费潜力、优化产业 结构，也将成为谱写高质量发展新篇章的关键动力。 在此背景下，21世纪经济报道专访了中信证券首席经济学家明明。明明指出，在"三驾马车"中，未来消 费将继续温和回升，成为经济增长的主要动力。新增专项债额度有望达到5万亿元，用于"两新""两 重"建设的超长期特别国债规模或将维持在1.3万亿元。在政策靠前发力下，或带动长债收益率全年呈 现"先下后上"的走势。 21世纪： ...

11月，央行连续九个月加量续作MLF，资金面合理充裕。11月，央行维持积极的操作，连续四个月通过买断式逆回购和MLF净投放6000亿元中长期资金， 全月公开市场整体净投放1738亿元。具体来看，11月，央行MLF提量续做10000亿元、净投放1000亿元，为连续第九个月加量续作；买断式逆回购投放 15000亿元、净投放5000亿元；国债买卖净投放500亿元；逆回购净回笼5562亿元；国库现金定存净投放800亿元。11月资金面整体延续了合理充裕的格局， 中下旬受政府债券集中发行缴款的影响，流动性一度边际收紧，月末在央行精准有力的呵护下重回平稳。 主要回购利率小幅上行。DR001、R001月度加权均值分别环比上行3BP、上行5BP至1.37%和1.43%；DR007、R007月度加权均值分别环比持平于1.47%、 1.51%。全月DR007最低值1.413%、最高值1.5239%、中位数1.4688%；波动幅度为11个基点，环比减少8个基点。具体看，月初政府债发行量和银行存单到 期量较小，OMO大额净回笼，但央行等量续作3个月7000亿元买断式逆回购，资金面保持平稳。月中在缴税走款、政府债集中缴款、存单大量到期等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising long-term bond yields in major economies, indicating a lack of market confidence and potential financial instability, which could lead to a global financial crisis driven by debt issues [1][16][17]. Group 1: Long-term Bond Yields - Major economies are experiencing record high long-term bond yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.15%, Japan's 30-year yield reaching 3.445%, and Germany's 10-year yield at 2.836% [1]. - Rising yields reflect a market that is selling off bonds, necessitating higher returns to attract buyers, which could lead to a vicious cycle of increasing yields and declining confidence [2][18]. Group 2: Debt Dynamics - The high levels of debt in Western economies are largely driven by past economic growth fueled by borrowing, with the US playing a central role in this dynamic [4]. - The US government has accumulated a debt of $38 trillion, with annual interest payments alone amounting to $1.2 trillion [5]. - The global reliance on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency creates a closed loop where global earnings in dollars are reinvested into US Treasury bonds, allowing the US to continue its spending [6][7]. Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rates - The US has faced rising domestic inflation due to extensive quantitative easing (QE) measures and tariff increases, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate a cycle of interest rate hikes [9][12]. - The challenge for the US government is balancing the need to control inflation while managing rising interest payments on its debt, which consumes a significant portion of fiscal revenue [12][15]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The dilemma facing major economies is whether to prioritize inflation control or economic growth, with potential repercussions for the global financial system [21][22]. - The situation is exacerbated by the interconnectedness of the global economy, where issues in the US can lead to widespread financial distress [17][18]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that in light of rising inflation and debt concerns, investors should focus on assets that generate real cash flow and can withstand inflation, rather than relying on long-term bonds [31]. - It emphasizes the importance of reducing debt and maintaining cash flow flexibility in a high-volatility environment [32]. - The need for a new economic growth breakthrough, particularly through technological advancements like AI, is highlighted as essential for overcoming current economic challenges [30][31].

用左侧的理性战胜右侧的感性，不是用左侧的理性去逆大势、去猜顶、去抄底，而是在顺大势的前提下，用左侧的理性战胜市场反复时的摇摆。 央行公开市场开展1076亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3387亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2311亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.31%附近，DR007在1.46%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 01 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.37 | -5 | 5 | 1.80 | 0 | 68611. 21 | 16215. 30 | 89.92 | | R007 | 1.49 | -3 | ar | 1.80 | 0 | 6802. 98 | 2032. 19 | 8.92 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market conditions, highlighting the impact of central bank policies, particularly the resumption of bond purchases and the decline in MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) interest rates, which have contributed to a bullish sentiment in the stock market and a significant drop in long-term bond yields [1][3]. Financial Market Overview - The central bank conducted a net injection of 348.3 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [1]. - The overnight and seven-day repo rates have shown upward trends, with DR001 around 1.45% and DR007 at approximately 1.58% [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.85% but later fell to around 1.795% following the announcement of resumed bond purchases by the central bank [3]. Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong performance, with the index reaching a peak of 3999 points, driven by positive sentiment from the weekend's trade negotiations between China and the U.S. [3]. - The article notes that the stock market's rise was anticipated, as traders had already priced in expectations of reaching 4000 points [3]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market initially showed cautious sentiment but reacted positively to the central bank's announcement, leading to a significant drop in yields [3]. - The MLF interest rate was reported to have decreased to approximately 1.8375%, further supporting the bullish trend in the bond market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The market appears chaotic and random on the surface, but it actually follows a significant trend, whether it is rising, falling, or consolidating [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The restaurant and accommodation sector experienced a profit drop of 67% in the first half of 2025 [8] - The central bank conducted a 122 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 126 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan [4] - The interbank funding market showed a slight decline in funding rates, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.43% [5] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market saw a slight increase in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to approximately 1.685% before closing at 1.691% [7][10] - The issuance of local government bonds was stable, with new issuance rates about 5 basis points higher than the secondary market, aligning with market expectations [8] - The market is anticipating the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data, as there are concerns about rising commodity prices [8]

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331 billion yuan at a fixed rate with an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 331 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 331 billion yuan. On the same day, 450 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market's funding conditions have tightened further, with a decrease in funding supply. The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) rose nearly 28 basis points, surpassing the 1.65% mark. In the overseas market, the latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.28% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64% [6] Bond Market - The yields on medium to long-term bonds in the interbank market increased by approximately 3 basis points, while government bond futures saw a significant decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.92% [8][10] Government Bond Futures - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.92%, the 10-year main contract down 0.29%, the 5-year main contract down 0.21%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.07% [10] Policy Announcements - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft for public consultation on the amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify standards for unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping and price collusion [11] - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued opinions to enhance financial services for rural reforms, emphasizing increased financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization and innovative financing models [11] - Beijing's Development and Reform Commission reported that all 320 major projects in the city commenced in the first half of the year, with investment growth of 14.1%, outpacing the national growth rate of 11.3% [12] Global Macro - The Reserve Bank of Australia's chairman expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5%, while the global economy faces uncertainty. Monthly data suggests that core CPI may not meet expectations, prompting a cautious and gradual easing path [14] Bond Market Events - In June, the northbound trading of Bond Connect reached 852.8 billion yuan, and in the first half of the year, securities firms underwrote technology innovation bonds totaling 381.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.48% [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market's funding situation remained loose on Thursday, with overnight rates oscillating at a low level around 1.36%. The 7 - day weighted average rate dropped 3.79bp to 1.4674%. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to stay loose due to external uncertainties from trade frictions, but the scope for further loosening of the funding situation is limited as long - term bond yields are relatively low and the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has risen above 108% [4]. - The stock index continued to fluctuate and rise. The US - Vietnam trade agreement may have a negative impact on China's re - export trade, while the lifting of export restrictions on China by three US chip design software suppliers will boost the relevant A - share electronics sector. In the short term, the stock index may present a volatile pattern due to shrinking trading volume and lackluster domestic and foreign positive factors. In the long term, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Additionally, the uncertain US tariff policy, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.51, down 4.43bp; DR007 at 1.91, down 3.79bp; GC001 at 1.15, down 20.00bp; GC007 at 1.49, down 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.61, down 1.35bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34, down 0.50bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.49, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.30, up 4.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5093 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4521 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 3968, up 0.62%; SSE 50 at 2725, up 0.07%; CSI 500 at 5923, up 0.50%; CSI 1000 at 6343, up 0.53%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13098 billion yuan, a decrease of 672 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with consumer electronics, biopharmaceuticals, electronic components, chemical pharmaceuticals, batteries, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors leading the gains, while shipbuilding and mining sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 closed at 3947, up 0.7%; IH当月 at 2708, up 0.2%; IC当月 at 5874, up 0.3%; IM当月 at 6279, up 0.3%. IF trading volume was 73590, up 3.9%, and its open interest was 238967, down 0.2%; IH trading volume was 34173, down 8.3%, and its open interest was 80640, down 2.3%; IC trading volume was 64956, down 0.8%, and its open interest was 220451, up 0.7%; IM trading volume was 162960, down 1.7%, and its open interest was 321768, up 0.8% [5]. - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF升贴水 was 13.16% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - quarter contract, 5.90% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.85% for the next - month contract; IH升贴水 was 1.87% for the current - month contract; IC升贴水 was 14.74% for the current - month contract, 12.12% for the next - quarter contract, 10.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 19.99% for the next - month contract; IM升贴水 was 13.19% for the current - month contract, 15.26% for the next - quarter contract, 24.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 18.07% for the next - month contract [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting a balanced but tight funding environment, slight increases in long-term bond yields, and the implications for bond traders and investors as they await lower interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is described as balanced but tight, with a slight upward movement in long-term bond yields [1]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331.5 billion, with a net injection of 111.0 billion after 220.5 billion matured [1]. - The overnight funding rates (DR001 and DR007) increased by 14 basis points to approximately 1.51% and 22 basis points to approximately 1.92%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for June met expectations at 49.7, which is consistent with the previous value of 49.5 [3]. - The stock market showed strong performance amid the tight funding conditions, with interest rates peaking at 1.653% during the day [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Sentiment - Bond traders are adopting a "wait and see" approach, anticipating a drop in interest rates below previous lows [3]. - The sentiment in the bond market remains stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.6475% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of observing marginal changes in policies rather than focusing on repetitive information, particularly in the context of recent developments in the financial market and international relations [1]. Group 1: Financial Market Overview - The liquidity in the financial market is balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.41% and DR007 at approximately 1.53% [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 135 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 291.1 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 156.1 billion yuan [1]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.45% (down 1 bp), R007 at 1.55% (down 2 bp), and R014 at 1.59% (down 1 bp) [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions to International Events - Following the recent phone call between the Chinese and U.S. presidents, there was a slight initial decline in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.675% and later fluctuating down to around 1.6675% [4]. - The market sentiment was initially weak but quickly recovered, with the 10-year bond yield stabilizing between 1.65% and 1.70% for nearly a month [4]. - The article notes that the international headlines were overshadowed by a conflict between Trump and Musk, despite the significance of the U.S.-China dialogue [5].