Core Insights - The article emphasizes that without novelty and expectation differences, there will be no explosive growth in the market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 572 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 5,093 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,521 billion yuan [3] - The interbank funding environment remains balanced and loose, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 around 1.47% [4] - The Caixin Services PMI for June dropped to 50.6, the lowest since October 2024, indicating a weakening in the services sector [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.639%, with a slight decrease to 1.635% during the day [5][6] - The article notes that 78% of U.S. weapon systems rely on critical minerals from China, highlighting the interdependence in U.S.-China relations [6]

Core Viewpoint - China's Caixin Services PMI for June is reported at 50.6, which is below the expected 50.9 and the previous value of 51.1 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Economic Indicator** - The Caixin Services PMI indicates a slight contraction in the services sector, as a reading above 50 signifies expansion while below 50 indicates contraction [1] - **Comparative Analysis** - The current PMI of 50.6 shows a decline from the previous month's value of 51.1, reflecting a slowdown in service sector activity [1] - **Market Expectations** - The reported figure is lower than market expectations, which anticipated a PMI of 50.9, suggesting potential concerns regarding economic growth in the services sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Caixin Services PMI for June in China is set to be released shortly, indicating potential insights into the service sector's performance and economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The announcement of the Caixin Services PMI reflects the ongoing monitoring of economic indicators in China, particularly in the services industry [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 5, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, totaling 126.5 billion yuan, matching the bidding amount [1] - On the same day, 266 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment remains loose, with slight declines in overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.32% [5] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.70%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [8] Group 4: Bond Market - The closing prices for government bond futures indicate a decline in the 30-year contract by 0.16% and a slight increase in the 5-year and 2-year contracts by 0.02% and 0.04% respectively [12] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Caixin Services PMI for May in China is reported at 51.1, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from April, indicating an acceleration in service sector expansion [13] - The meeting in Guangzhou emphasized the acceleration of major projects and the optimization of industrial layout to enhance economic growth [13] Group 6: Bond Issuance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has initiated the first batch of securities company bond renewals, with quality central and state-owned enterprises preparing to follow suit [17] - Chongqing Bank plans to issue 3 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [17] - Jiuan Medical intends to register and issue medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds totaling no more than 4 billion yuan [18]

Core Viewpoint - China's Caixin Services PMI for May is reported at 51.1, an increase from the previous value of 50.7, indicating a slight expansion in the services sector [1] Group 1 - The Caixin Services PMI reflects the health of the services industry, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion [1] - The increase from 50.7 to 51.1 suggests a positive trend in service sector activity, which may influence economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China's Caixin Services PMI for May is reported at 51.1, which meets expectations and shows an increase from the previous value of 50.7 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Caixin Services PMI for May in China is set to be released shortly, indicating potential insights into the service sector's performance and economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The announcement of the Caixin Services PMI suggests a focus on the service industry's health and its implications for broader economic trends in China [1]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, providing insights into the economic conditions across the U.S. [1] - China's Caixin Services PMI for May will be announced, which is crucial for understanding the service sector's performance [1] - The unemployment rate for Switzerland in May will be adjusted and reported [1] - Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) for April will be released, indicating inflation trends [1] - Challenger's report on U.S. job cuts for May will be published, reflecting employment trends [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision, impacting monetary policy [1] - The U.S. trade balance for April will be reported, providing insights into trade dynamics [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 31 will be released, indicating labor market conditions [1] - ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference, likely discussing monetary policy and economic outlook [1] - The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for May will be published in the U.S., reflecting supply chain conditions [1] - EIA's natural gas inventory report for the week ending May 30 will be released, impacting energy markets [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on economic outlook, providing insights into future monetary policy [1] - Federal Reserve's Harker will discuss economic prospects, which may influence market expectations [1] - Federal Reserve's Schmidt will address banking policies, relevant for financial sector stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese service sector is experiencing a slowdown in new order growth, reaching a 28-month low, while costs are rising, and service prices are declining, leading to a drop in industry optimism to a historical low point [2][11][14]. Service Sector Performance - In April, the Caixin Services PMI stood at 50.7, down from 51.9, indicating continued expansion but at the slowest pace since September of the previous year [2]. - The composite output index fell from 51.8 in March to 51.1 in April, marking a three-month low in production activity [5][15]. - New business volume growth has slowed, with the rate being the weakest in seven months, and new export orders have also contracted [5][16]. Employment and Cost Trends - The employment index in the service sector has fallen into contraction territory for the second consecutive month, reflecting cost-cutting measures by companies [9][14]. - Average input costs have risen, driven by increasing raw material prices and wages, yet service firms continue to lower selling prices for the third month in a row due to weak market demand [9][14]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Business optimism has declined to the second-lowest level since the survey began in November 2005, primarily due to concerns over trade policy changes [14]. - Despite the pessimistic outlook, companies expect that new marketing strategies and efficiency improvements will help drive growth in the next 12 months [14]. - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with external trade uncertainties significantly impacting business sentiment [19].

无论内心的感觉也好，还是分析体系给你的支撑也好，亦或是受外界情绪的影响也罢，人总是先入为主地有一定的预判，这就让人们总爱做左侧。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250305— 政策要 能早则早、宁早勿晚（+政府工作报告未超预期+资金面均衡宽松-股市小幅上涨=微下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展3532亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有5487亿元逆回购到期。净回笼1955亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格较昨日变化不大，DR007在1.77%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 03.05) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成义重 (17. | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.76 | | | 2. 53 | -8 | 48364. 26 | 271. 32 | 8 ...