周一公布的数据显示，衡量美国房屋建筑商信心的一项指标——全美住宅建筑商协会（NAHB）住房市 场指数本月意外下降至32，回落至2022年12月以来的最低水平。超过三分之一的住宅建筑商降价销售， 约三分之二的建筑商提供某种形式的优惠，以吸引因抵押贷款利率仍高企和经济不确定性而持观望态度 的买家。 本周，投资者将把目光投向美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔，美联储将在那里举行全球年度政策研讨会，今年 的主题是"转型中的劳动力市场：人口、生产力和宏观经济政策"。随着近期就业数据有所波动，外界希 望寻找美联储降息路径的更多线索。这种乐观情绪正在推高小盘股和对利率敏感的资产，建筑行业表现 受到关注，特别是在伯克希尔有所行动之后。 市场反应热烈 在最近的华尔街交易中，可能从利率下调之中受益最多的公司是最大的赢家之一。 道富银行投资管理公司首席投资策略师阿罗内（Micheal Arone）表示："一些传统上受益于降息的行业 因相信美联储将重启宽松周期而出现反弹。"阿罗内表示，房屋建筑商尤其已"显现出一些生机"。 在市场预期美联储降息之际，抵押贷款利率近期出现缓和迹象。据房地美数据，上周美国最常见的住房 贷款——30年期固定利率抵押贷款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, focusing on the potential implications of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions on various sectors, particularly the housing market and construction industry, amid fluctuating employment data and mortgage rates [3][5]. Market Reactions - Investors are optimistic about potential interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in sectors traditionally benefiting from lower rates, especially homebuilders [5][6]. - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has dropped to 6.58%, the lowest since October of the previous year, indicating a potential easing in borrowing costs [6]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF rose by 5.6% in the past week, significantly outperforming the broader market [6]. Housing Market Insights - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index unexpectedly fell to 32, the lowest level since December 2022, with over one-third of builders reducing prices to attract buyers [7]. - Builders are facing challenges related to affordability and regulatory issues, which are impacting their ability to develop land and construct homes [7]. Federal Reserve's Position - There are mixed signals regarding inflation and economic resilience, leading to concerns that Federal Reserve Chair Powell may temper expectations for rate cuts during the Jackson Hole meeting [8][9]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut have risen to 80%, following comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen [9]. - Analysts suggest that Powell must navigate carefully to maintain market stability, avoiding any indications that the economy requires significant stimulus [10].

Core Insights - The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. has dropped to 6.67%, the lowest since early April, prompting homeowners to refinance for lower costs, but the impact on attracting new homebuyers is limited [1] - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 23% surge in refinancing applications, the highest in four months, while purchase applications only saw a slight increase of 1% [1] - High mortgage rates combined with rising home prices have created significant pressure, leading to a nine-month low in existing home sales in June [1] Economic Indicators - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining short-term interest rates, concerns about potential inflation from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration persist [1] - Recent comments from some Federal Reserve officials indicate increased concern over the labor market, raising expectations for a rate cut in September, especially with July's consumer inflation rate stable at 2.7% [1] - The Kansas City Fed President has expressed caution regarding rate cuts, emphasizing the need to observe more economic data before making decisions [1] Historical Context - Historical data shows that prior to the last rate cut in September 2024, mortgage rates significantly declined due to a weak labor market, which prompted the Fed to implement a larger-than-usual half-point cut [2] - The current market is closely monitoring whether this round of policy adjustments can revitalize the housing market [2]

智通财经5月9日电，房地美数据显示，5月8日当周美国30年期固定利率抵押贷款为6.76%，与前一周持 平。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the average fixed mortgage rate for a 30-year term in the U.S. remains stable at 6.76% as of the week of May 8, unchanged from the previous week [1]

任何降息举措都极有可能被视为向白宫的压力屈服。很难想象这样做除了损害美联储的声誉以及人们对 美国国债市场的信心之外，还会有什么别的结果。几周前，由特朗普自己的言论引发的谣言，即他可能 试图"解雇"鲍威尔，就足以导致债券市场暴跌。 在目前这个阶段，金融市场认为美联储不仅会在本周的会议上维持短期利率稳定，而且很可能在下个月 的会议上也会如此。市场认为美联储直到7月才有可能降息，而且届时可能也只会降25个基点。 如果真是这样，美联储可能需要准备好迎接美国总统的愤怒升级。但随后这位总统对美联储的攻击可能 反过来会使降息的日期进一步推迟。这并非是因为美联储的固执，而是因为鲍威尔知道他需要让债券投 资者放心，一个独立的美联储会守护他们的投资，并保护他们资金的价值。 常言道，人最大的敌人是自己。当涉及到美联储和利率问题时，特朗普无疑让自己的处境变得艰难得 多。 特朗普多次攻击美联储主席鲍威尔，包括常用的类似小学生的嘲讽和辱骂，这使得鲍威尔和他的同事们 几乎不可能在北京时间次日凌晨的会议上削减短期利率，即使他们有这个想法。 亚特兰大联储在几天内就将其对第二季度经济增长的实时预测下调了一半多，从2.4%降至1.1%。根据 美国 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. increased to 6.83% for the week ending April 17, up from 6.62% the previous week [1]