大摩：美联储下一步动向及市场反应 20251212 摘要 美联储降息决策将高度依赖未来经济数据，而非预先设定的风险判断， 鲍威尔强调了数据的重要性，并明确排除了未来再次加息的可能性。 劳动力市场存在技术性调整因素，可能导致就业数据下修，包括年度基 准修订和移民管制，这些因素增加了劳动力市场状况的不确定性，可能 促使美联储维持较低利率。 关税对通胀的影响预计将持续到 2026 年第一季度末，商品价格可能继 续上涨，导致 2025 年初的年同比通胀率略高于 3%，但预计此后通胀 将回落。 预计美联储将在 2026 年 1 月再次降息，原因是就业数据显示劳动力市 场持续降温，并可能在 4 月份再次降息以支持劳动力市场，届时联邦基 金利率可能降至 3%至 3.25%并保持稳定。 当前 10 年期国债收益率接近 4%，预计 2026 年上半年将温和下降，原 因是美联储将继续降低政策利率，长期利率大幅上升的可能性不大。 自今年 1 月开始的美元贬值趋势预计将在上半年持续，但下半年美元可 能出现一定程度的反弹和升值。 Q&A FOMC 会议再次降息 25 个基点，市场反应积极，但内部存在分歧。此次会议 有哪些重要启示？ 委 ...

12月5日，近期市场焦点集中在核心PCE（个人消费支出核心指数）数据的发布，这一指标是衡量通胀 的重要参考。OEXN认为，若报告显示通胀放缓，将可能降低10年期国债收益率，从而对加密货币形成 支撑，尤其是比特币和以太坊等核心资产。分析师指出，9月份核心PCE预计同比上涨2.9%，连续第55 个月高于美联储2%的目标，但波动率指标显示市场短期恐慌并未加剧，这意味着投资者对加密市场的 整体情绪仍保持相对稳定。 从具体数据来看，据FactSet统计，核心PCE可能上涨至2.9%，仍高于美联储的2%目标，显示通胀仍然 具有"黏性"，可能强化鹰派立场并延缓降息进程。但从市场波动性角度分析，比特币的日内隐含波动率 （BVIV）约为36%，对应24小时价格预期波动仅1.88%，显示投资者对价格短期剧烈波动的预期有限。 OEXN认为，这反映出市场普遍预计美联储即使面对高通胀数据，下周仍可能进行25个基点的降息操 作，市场已提前定价部分利好。 从具体数据来看，据FactSet统计，核心PCE可能上涨至2.9%，仍高于美联储的2%目标，显示通胀仍然 具有"黏性"，可能强化鹰派立场并延缓降息进程。但从市场波动性角度分析，比特币的日 ...

Core Insights - The article examines the historical trends of the 10-year Treasury yield since 1962, highlighting its correlation with significant economic indicators such as the Fed Funds Rate, inflation, and the S&P 500 [1] Economic Indicators - The relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the Fed Funds Rate is analyzed, indicating how changes in monetary policy impact long-term interest rates [1] - Inflation trends are discussed in relation to the 10-year Treasury yield, emphasizing the yield's role as a predictor of future inflation expectations [1] - The article also explores the connection between the 10-year Treasury yield and the performance of the S&P 500, suggesting that shifts in yield can influence equity market dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The president of the United States does not directly control mortgage rates but can influence them through various channels such as Federal Reserve appointments and economic policies [1][2][3] Influence of the President on Mortgage Rates - The president's appointees and policies can affect the 10-year Treasury yield, which is closely linked to mortgage rate trends [2][5] - The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly the federal funds rate, serve as a foundation for consumer interest rates, including mortgages [3][4] - The president nominates the Fed chair and Board of Governors, thereby influencing interest rate policies indirectly [4][5] Economic Policies Impacting Mortgage Rates - Economic policies, including tax changes and tariffs, can affect consumer spending and inflation, which in turn influence mortgage rates [8][9] - High inflation typically leads the Federal Reserve to increase rates, while low inflation may result in rate cuts [9] Housing Policy Changes - The president can impact mortgage rates through housing policies that affect supply and demand, such as homebuyer incentives and housing supply initiatives [10][11] - Immigration policies can also indirectly affect the housing market by influencing labor availability for homebuilders [10] Strategies for Lowering Mortgage Rates - Individuals can take steps to secure lower mortgage rates, such as improving credit scores, buying discount points, and shopping for the best mortgage lender [12][13] - Making a larger down payment can also help in obtaining a lower interest rate [13] Factors Affecting Mortgage Rates - Mortgage rates are influenced by Federal Reserve policy, inflation, employment market conditions, economic growth, and the 10-year Treasury yield [14] - Rates tend to drop when inflation decreases, home-buying demand slows, or the economy cools [15]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in mortgage rates is driven by market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage falling to 6.13%, the lowest since the end of 2022 [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage decreased by 12 basis points from the previous day, reaching 6.13% [1] - This decline in mortgage rates is reminiscent of the situation in September 2024, where similar expectations led to a rise in rates after the Fed's announcement [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates at least a 25 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve, with a potential additional cut of 25 basis points thereafter [1] - Historical patterns indicate that rate cuts during non-recession periods have limited impact on long-term interest rates [1] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors are likely to engage in buying ahead of expected rate cuts, with a tendency to sell once profits are realized [1] - Following a 25 basis point cut by the Fed, a slight decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield is expected, which typically correlates with mortgage rate trends [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that respondents believe the fiscal outlook is the primary factor influencing the 10-year Treasury yield forecast for the next two years [1] Group 1 - The survey conducted by the Fed's Desk revealed that the fiscal outlook was the most frequently mentioned factor by respondents regarding the future of the 10-year Treasury yield [1]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in U.S. Treasury borrowing is driving up interest rates, particularly at the longer end of the yield curve, which raises borrowing costs for the government and exacerbates the fiscal deficit [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The rising borrowing costs are increasing the risk of a broader rise in lending costs across the economic system [1] - Despite these challenges, the U.S. economy is showing strong signs of resilience, which was somewhat unexpected [1] Group 2: Market Focus - Goldman Sachs' clients are more concerned with the 10-year Treasury yield than the federal funds rate [1] - The acknowledgment of the current economic resilience is significant, indicating a potential for continued economic strength [1]

Group 1 - The NSE Nifty index in India recovered from an earlier decline of 0.7% [1] - Indian government bonds also regained ground, with the 10-year bond yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 6.34% [1]