Core Viewpoint - The 30-year special government bonds have seen significant price increases in the secondary market, with trading prices rising over 20% shortly after their listing, which is unusual given the stable market interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The 30-year special government bonds began trading on May 22, with the "24特国01" bond experiencing a 13.1% increase within the first minute, leading to a temporary suspension of trading [2]. - The "特国2401" bond also faced two temporary suspensions due to price increases exceeding 10% and 20%, closing with a 19.70% rise [2]. - In contrast, the interbank market showed stability, with the "24特别国债01" bond's latest yield matching its coupon rate at 2.57% [2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - There is a notable demand from individual investors to "transfer markets" due to significant price discrepancies between the exchange and interbank markets [3]. - Investors who purchased bonds through banks must complete a transfer custody process to sell on the exchange, which can lead to potential losses if market prices fluctuate [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the substantial price increases in the exchange markets, trading volumes remain low, indicating that high price fluctuations are uncommon without changes in market interest rates [5]. - The potential for future issuance of these bonds may affect market dynamics, but the current high prices may not be sustainable without corresponding demand [5].

Core Insights - The 20-year ultra-long special treasury bonds launched on May 27 have seen a higher subscription enthusiasm compared to the previous 30-year bonds, with banks like China Merchants Bank and Zheshang Bank selling out their quotas within a short time frame [1][2] Subscription Performance - The issuance quota for both the 20-year and 30-year bonds was set at 5 billion yuan, but the 20-year bonds sold out in approximately 25 minutes, while the 30-year bonds took until 3:30 PM to sell out [2] - Zheshang Bank's previous 30-year bond had a quota of 15 million yuan and sold out by 1:30 PM on the same day, indicating a significant increase in demand for the 20-year bonds [2] - Investors' purchase amounts varied widely, ranging from 30,000 yuan to over 1 million yuan, reflecting diverse investor interest [2] Market Dynamics - The 20-year bonds are expected to experience price volatility post-listing, similar to the 30-year bonds, but the overall impact on the bond market is anticipated to be limited [3][6] - The fixed interest rate for the 20-year bonds is set at 2.49%, with interest payments made semi-annually [3] - The bonds are sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, leading banks to assign higher risk ratings, with China Merchants Bank rating it R3 and Zheshang Bank R2 [3] Trading Environment - After listing, investors can trade the bonds in the interbank market or transfer them to brokerage accounts for exchange market trading [3] - The trading volume for the 30-year bonds was low, indicating potential liquidity issues in the secondary market [4] - The market is expected to adapt to increased supply of ultra-long special treasury bonds, with monthly issuance rising from 200 billion to 600 billion yuan to a range of 800 billion to 1.6 trillion yuan from May to November [7]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to have limited impact on the liquidity and bond markets, while also supporting economic growth through fiscal policy measures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Liquidity - Analysts believe that the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will have a limited effect on liquidity due to the long issuance cycle and gradual pace, which helps to reduce market volatility [2]. - The first issuance of the 30-year ultra-long-term special government bond on May 17 did not lead to significant fluctuations in the short-term policy interest rates, as evidenced by the DR007 remaining stable at 1.8421% [2]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" in the bond market by increasing the supply of safe assets, thus balancing supply and demand [2]. - The gradual issuance schedule is anticipated to smooth out any potential supply pressure on the bond market, as the market had already anticipated the supply increase [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The issuance of these bonds signals a proactive fiscal policy aimed at supporting economic development, which may help alleviate local government financial pressures and support infrastructure growth [3][4]. - The introduction of ultra-long-term special government bonds is seen as a step towards promoting interest rate marketization and providing a reference for pricing long-term local government bonds [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - There remains potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly in the second quarter, to support fiscal policy and provide banks with low-cost long-term funding [4][5]. - The central bank's recent actions, such as the equal volume renewal of MLF, indicate a cautious approach to managing liquidity without immediate rate cuts [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is characterized by a steady pace, aiming to minimize liquidity impact on the market [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The second ultra-long-term special government bond was issued on May 24, with a total competitive bidding amount of 40 billion yuan and a winning yield of 2.49% [1]. - The issuance schedule for this year includes 7 bonds with a 20-year term, 12 with a 30-year term, and 3 with a 50-year term, indicating a uniform issuance pattern [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Analysts suggest that the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will have a limited impact on liquidity, with a controlled supply pressure expected [2]. - The issuance arrangement is designed to reduce short-term liquidity shocks, and the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut by the central bank in response to the bond issuance is low [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to approach investments in ultra-long-term special government bonds with caution, as market prices can fluctuate based on market conditions [3][4]. - The bonds are considered a suitable choice for conservative investors due to the high assurance of principal and interest repayment backed by national sovereign credit [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The net financing of government bonds in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1) was 137.4 billion yuan, and 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week (June 2 - June 8). As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.6 trillion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds in the 22nd week was 0 yuan, and 198 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 2.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 40.2%. The net financing of local bonds in the 22nd week was 137.4 billion yuan, and 50.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2 trillion yuan [1]. - The net financing of new general bonds in the 22nd week was 2.36 billion yuan, and 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 35.1 billion yuan, with a progress of 43.9%. The net financing of new special bonds in the 22nd week was 15.6 billion yuan, and 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.1%. Special new special bonds of 243.9 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 108.3 billion yuan have been issued. The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 22nd week was 0.5 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 81%. The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 22nd week was 0.33 billion yuan, and is expected to be -1.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was approximately 10.5 trillion yuan [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Government Debt Financing - The net financing of government bonds in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1) was 137.4 billion yuan, and 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week (June 2 - June 8). As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.6 trillion yuan [1]. Treasury Bonds - The net financing of treasury bonds in the 22nd week was 0 yuan, and 198 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 2.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 40.2%. The special treasury bonds issued were 17.6 billion yuan, including 10.5 billion yuan of capital - injection special treasury bonds and 7.1 billion yuan of 30 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [1]. Local Bonds - The net financing of local bonds in the 22nd week was 137.4 billion yuan, and 50.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2 trillion yuan [1]. New General Bonds - The net financing of new general bonds in the 22nd week was 2.36 billion yuan, and 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 35.1 billion yuan, with a progress of 43.9% [2]. New Special Bonds - The net financing of new special bonds in the 22nd week was 15.6 billion yuan, and 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.1%. Special new special bonds of 243.9 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 108.3 billion yuan have been issued [2]. Special Refinancing Bonds - The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 22nd week was 0.5 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 81% [2]. Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 22nd week was 0.33 billion yuan, and is expected to be -1.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was approximately 10.5 trillion yuan [2]. Basic Data - The ChinaBond Composite Index was 254.4; the ChinaBond Long/Medium - Short - Term Index was 245.4/209.1; the yield of inter - bank treasury bonds (10Y) was 1.68; the scale of enterprise/company/convertible bonds (in hundreds of billions) was 69.9/23.8/6.9 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. Currently, the trend of Treasury bond futures is not strong, and the upward and downward momentum is limited. Since April, as the Treasury bond yield to maturity has rebounded, the implied interest rate cut expectation relative to the policy rate is now close to zero. This is mainly because external risk factors have entered a suspension period, reducing the demand for safe - havens, and the effectiveness of internal policies requires more macro - economic indicators for verification. The possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. However, due to the anchoring effect of the policy rate, the upward momentum of market interest rates is also insufficient. In the second quarter, government bond issuance has accelerated to hedge against external disturbances and support economic demand. Especially since May, the supply of 30 - year ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds has significantly increased, which may put some pressure on the price of 30 - year Treasury bond futures in the short term. Overall, in the short term, the upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On May 22, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method. The operating rate was 1.4%, unchanged from before [3].