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2026科技板块展望
傅里叶的猫· 2025-12-30 16:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the promising sectors in the technology industry for the upcoming year, highlighting the performance of various segments in 2023 and projecting growth opportunities for 2024 [1]. Group 1: Domestic Substitution Chain - The domestic substitution chain, particularly related to the Ascend industry chain, is expected to perform well next year, with companies experiencing significant stock price increases due to recent news [4]. - Confidence in the 950 series and other domestic AI chips like HWJ, Kunlunxin, and PPU is noted, with expectations for increased market share as domestic wafer production capacity and yield improve [4]. Group 2: Autonomous Driving - The autonomous driving sector is divided into Robotaxi and Robovan, with significant growth anticipated in both areas [5][6]. - Recent policy changes encouraging Level 3 autonomous driving indicate a supportive regulatory environment, which could lead to reduced costs and improved profitability for companies in this space [6][7]. Group 3: Aerospace - The aerospace sector is gaining attention, with government policies favoring its development. The success of rocket recovery technology could lead to numerous opportunities in satellite applications [8]. Group 4: Memory - The memory sector has seen a significant market rally, with expectations for the upcoming IPO of CX, which is projected to reach a trillion-dollar market value [9]. - The current market dynamics differ from previous years, with major manufacturers likely to maintain production levels to capitalize on profitability rather than rapidly expanding capacity [9]. Group 5: Liquid Cooling - The liquid cooling market is expected to grow 5-10 times next year, driven by increasing demand from chip manufacturers facing thermal management challenges [10][11]. - Innovations in liquid cooling technologies, such as multi-channel covers and immersion cooling, are being explored to enhance performance [11]. Group 6: AI Power - The AI power sector remains a focus, particularly in the context of stable and continuous power supply, which is more readily available in domestic markets compared to North America [12]. - Opportunities in AI power are identified in areas such as gas turbines and energy-efficient solutions for data centers, with a notable increase in interest in off-grid power technologies [12].
字节国产算力Capex超预期?关于昇腾的100+400亿订单产业机会梳理
傅里叶的猫· 2025-12-28 14:02
晚上关于字节要采购昇腾100亿+400亿的新闻已经刷爆了各个群,按照这个新闻的描述,已经采购了 百亿即将交付,2026年会采购400亿,那加起来就是500亿了,跟前几天传的小作文的数字是一样 的。 在周五的文章中,我们提到过这个合作,我自己问到的是目前有100亿的合作,但后续合作的金额还 不知道。 其实理性分析一下这400亿,即便字节有意愿,也不会直接下单400亿了,毕竟950还没有量产出来, 所 以可能是个框架性的采购协议,具体能落地多少,要看950的实际表现了。 从目前业内朋友对950的分析,我对950还是比较有信心的。 关于昇腾的片间互联,这里简单说一下,在目前昇腾出货量最多的8卡机里面,8个NPU的互联方式 主要采用HCCS高速缓存一致性系统,这是华为自研的高速互连技术,对标NVIDIA的NVLink,用 于实现NPU之间的低延迟、高带宽通信,支持缓存一致性和直接内存访问。8个NPU通常分为两个组 (每组4个NPU),每个组的4个NPU通过HCCS实现全连接(full-mesh)拓扑,提供更高带宽和更 低延迟;8个NPU使用6个高速线模组,总的价值量大概是5.5w左右。 关于高速线模组的测算,网上有个 ...
AIDC国内链-H公司专家交流
2025-09-22 01:00
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses **Huawei** and its developments in the **data center** and **high-performance computing** sectors, particularly focusing on the **384 node system** and advancements in **liquid cooling** and **high voltage direct current (HVDC)** technologies. Core Insights and Arguments - **384 Node System**: The 384 node system is considered a transitional product with performance improvements over the 920B model, but still lacking in certain precision operations. Future products like the 950 and 960 are expected to enhance performance further [1][3][5] - **HVDC Adoption**: Huawei plans to adopt **800V or higher HVDC** systems to improve power supply efficiency and reduce energy consumption. A mixed mode of AC to DC UPS and HVDC is anticipated to be implemented by 2025-2026 [1][4][10] - **Liquid Cooling Technology**: Liquid cooling has become a standard configuration, with the 920C model reaching a maximum power of **600W**, while the upcoming 950 and 960 models are expected to reach **1,000W** and **1,200W** respectively. Liquid cooling is deemed necessary for high power density applications despite its higher cost compared to air cooling [1][11][14] - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of a liquid cooling system is approximately **20,000 yuan per square meter**, with a total cabinet cost around **120,000 yuan**. In contrast, air cooling systems cost between **15,000 to 20,000 yuan per square meter**, totaling around **80,000 yuan** for a cabinet [14][15] - **Market Projections**: Expected shipments for the 920C model in 2025 are around **300,000 units**, while the 920B is projected at **600,000 units**. The 950 model is set to launch in Q1 2026, but with lower yield rates [3][24][25] Additional Important Insights - **Partnerships**: Huawei's SVDC project collaborates with partners like **Kehua** and **Bank of China** to advance project development [7] - **UPS Systems**: The company utilizes both international brands like **Schneider**, **ABB**, and **Vertiv**, as well as domestic brands like **Kehua** in its UPS solutions, aiming for localization [8] - **Microchannel Technology**: This technology is being explored for high heat dissipation needs, particularly in the 950 series chips, although it currently has high material costs [20][22] - **Future Trends**: The data center industry is expected to gradually transition to liquid cooling systems, especially as power demands increase beyond **30 kW** per cabinet [28][29] - **Reliability Measures**: The 2N configuration in data center power systems ensures high reliability, with a design that allows for 99.9% uptime even in dual power failure scenarios [30][31] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Huawei's strategic direction in the data center and cooling technology sectors.