又到了一年的年底，今年科技板块的表现确实非常不错，这篇文章我们展望下明年比较看好的科技板块。 今年年 初，A 股由 DeepSeek - R1 发布引爆 AI 算力，AI 基础设施成为开年主线，资金集中于算力硬件与大模型关联标 的。但后面，A股的AI出海链由于地缘政治原因，调整比较大，资金分 流到了其他板块；但4月份往后的几个月，以旭创 为代表的出海链，走了一波超级大牛市，旭创从今年最低点的66.3，涨到了前段时间最高点的658，当然中间也有波动性的 调整；其中10月和11月，电力出海板块的表现不错，同时Memory的超级大周期带来的效应也逐渐体现了出来；12月份， 液冷公司开始出圈；临近年底了，由于zj跟昇腾的那个传言，国产替代链又抢了几天的风头。 除了AI链，还是提一下航天板块，从11月份以来，表现非常不错，但我一直没有写。其实我对这块还是比较了解的，我毕 业后的第一份工作就是在中科院某所做卫星的研发工作，也特意跟前同事咨询过关于星网、G60星座的一些事情，但这波 航天的行情确实超出了我的预期。 下面结合跟业内一起大佬的交流，和自己的理解，说下对明年的几点展望，自己比较看好的几个板块。明年的文章中，我 们 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the logic and marginal changes of AI computing hardware going overseas, highlighting that the market is currently performing well, particularly in AI computing-related sectors [1] - The power export market has shifted from SST to gas turbines and HRSG recently, indicating a change in focus within the industry [3][4] - The article emphasizes the strong performance of core targets in the gas turbine market, suggesting a positive outlook for these companies [4] Group 2 - The article notes that only three companies—Siemens Energy, GE, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries—are currently capable of producing gas turbines, with a significant demand for these products due to electricity shortages in the U.S. [5] - Gas turbines are highlighted for their flexibility and efficiency, with the cost of electricity generation from large gas turbines being only $70-80 per megawatt hour, which remains competitive even with price increases [6][7] - The gas turbine market is entering a golden period of supply-demand balance, with strong demand driven by electrification, energy security needs, and explosive growth in data centers. Global gas turbine orders are expected to exceed production capacity until at least the early 2030s [7] Group 3 - HRSG prices are currently between $5-5.5 million per unit, with expectations to rise to $6-7 million per unit by early next year, driven by a 50% supply-demand gap [7] - The article provides insights into various companies in the domestic Google supply chain, detailing their products, market shares, and expected orders for 2026 [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth and investment opportunities in the gas turbine and HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) sectors, particularly focusing on Siemens Energy and its market dynamics driven by increasing electricity demand and structural changes in the energy sector [1][3]. Group 1: Gas Turbine Market Dynamics - The core challenge in gas turbine production lies in the main engine, which must withstand high temperatures and pressures, with only Siemens Energy, GE, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries capable of manufacturing them [3]. - Siemens Energy has a backlog of orders totaling €138 billion, a 42% increase from 2022, with €65 billion coming from service-related orders, indicating strong demand in the gas services and grid technology sectors [3]. - Global electricity demand is expected to grow nearly 50% over the next decade, with AI and data centers projected to double their electricity consumption in the same period [3]. Group 2: Growth in Gas Services - The gas services segment is identified as the primary growth driver for Siemens Energy, as gas-fired power generation emits half the carbon of coal, making it a viable alternative [4]. - From 2025 to 2035, the global annual increase in gas-fired power generation capacity is expected to reach 90-100 GW, nearly double the average of the past decades, with data centers contributing 15%-20% to this demand [4]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Market Demand - Siemens Energy is accelerating capacity expansion, with plans to increase large gas turbine production in Berlin from 35 units per year to 50 by 2027, and to double the medium gas turbine capacity in Sweden to 100 units by 2028 [5]. - The current production capacity is fully booked, with a delivery cycle of 2-3 years, highlighting a tight market supply situation [5]. - Siemens Energy has achieved a 100% attachment rate for long-term service agreements for large gas turbines, with profit margins on new agreements expected to increase by over 500 basis points compared to existing contracts [5]. Group 4: Domestic HRSG Companies' Outlook - The outlook for domestic HRSG companies in international markets appears optimistic, with BYTH's Vietnam project planning four HRSG production lines in phase one and eight in phase two, targeting North American gas turbine contractors [7]. - HRSG units account for only 7-8% of value but represent 30-40% of power generation capacity, with expectations of price increases exceeding 30-40% due to a 50% supply-demand gap [7]. - Xizi Clean Energy has established a strong position in the global high-end HRSG market through successful projects in Pakistan and Nigeria, with products exported to over 50 countries [7].

Core Insights - Nvidia's GB200 architecture features two B200 GPUs paired with an Arm-based Grace CPU, forming a powerful GB200 superchip with a total power consumption of 2700W [1] - The demand for electricity from AI data centers is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a potential power shortfall of 73.2GW in the U.S. from 2025 to 2030, which could rise to 201GW if data center growth exceeds expectations [4] - The Chinese government is also focusing on building larger data centers, which will increase AI-related power demands, while promoting the construction of a new energy system [4] Industry Implications - The increasing power demands from AI data centers present a historical opportunity for the power grid sector, potentially reshaping performance and valuation metrics [4] - The ongoing electricity shortages in North America may lead to new opportunities for domestic power grid companies, particularly through the concept of "power export," which could enhance profits and long-term valuation [4] - Investors are encouraged to consider power grid ETFs as a means to capitalize on these emerging trends in the energy sector [4]

Market Overview - The market showed strong fluctuations on November 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 4000 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Index rose by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.84% [1] Sector Performance - The computing power sector saw a significant increase, led by domestic computing power stocks. Additionally, sectors such as non-ferrous metals and mining rebounded, while the power grid continued its strong performance [1] - The technology sector is expected to remain active in the wake of the earnings vacuum period starting in November, with computing power being a core performance line. Investors are encouraged to consider buying on dips in this sector [1] Investment Opportunities - Several new domestic GPU manufacturers are expected to go public in mid-November, which may serve as a catalyst for the market. The price increase in storage is anticipated to continue into Q4, with capacity shortages expected to persist until 2026. There are also expectations for major domestic storage companies to go public in 2026 [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of the storage price increase, while the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) is noted for its cost-effectiveness amid the expansion of advanced processes and storage demand [1] Electric Grid Sector - The new narrative surrounding the electric grid may reshape performance and valuation fundamentals. Despite prior consensus on the high electricity consumption of AI data centers, the ongoing power shortages in North America have led to a new opportunity for domestic electric grid companies through power exports. This could enhance profits and potentially raise valuation levels [2] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the Electric Grid ETF (561380) as a potential investment opportunity in this context [2]

Market Overview - The market showed strong fluctuations throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 4000 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Index rose by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.84% [1] Sector Performance - The computing power sector rebounded, with domestic computing power leading the gains. The Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF rose by 4.73%, the Integrated Circuit ETF by 3.82%, the Chip ETF by 3.71%, and the Semiconductor Equipment ETF by 3.48% [2][3] AI and Storage Market Dynamics - Due to the AI demand, major overseas manufacturers are shifting their production capacity towards DDR5 and HBM, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and price increases for DDR4 and other products. From Q2 2025, mainstream storage product prices have been rising quarter-on-quarter, with NAND Flash prices also increasing. The price hikes are expected to continue due to sustained AI demand, potentially exacerbating the tight supply situation through 2026 [6][8] Electric Grid Sector Opportunities - The electric grid sector is poised for historical opportunities, driven by the increasing power demand from AI data centers. The U.S. is projected to face a power shortfall of approximately 73.2 GW from 2025 to 2030, which could rise to 201 GW if data center growth exceeds expectations. This situation may lead to new opportunities for domestic electric grid companies, particularly in the context of power exports [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing concern over the electricity shortage in the United States, highlighting the growing demand for expert consultations and the positive market performance in the related sectors [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Electricity Shortage in the U.S. - The topic of electricity shortage in the U.S. has gained significant attention, with major North American companies discussing the issue [2]. - There is a noticeable increase in expert consultation requests related to the electricity sector, indicating heightened interest from institutions and brokerages [4]. - The related market sectors have shown strong performance, indicating a favorable investment climate [5]. Group 2: HVDC/SST Developments - Eaton's solid-state transformer (SST) products are currently in a small-scale pilot testing phase, with three units supplied to Century Interconnect for testing [6]. - The product specifications are customized to meet local grid standards, such as the 13.8 kV for the U.S. market compared to 10 kV in China [6]. - Future research and development will focus on expanding product lines to accommodate various voltage specifications and enhancing functionalities to integrate renewable energy [7]. Group 3: Market Projections and Financial Estimates - A detailed financial projection for the HVDC and SST market indicates a potential market space of 735 billion yuan for HVDC and 504 billion yuan for SST in North America [10]. - The estimated revenue from HVDC contract manufacturing is projected to be around 36.75 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 10% [10]. - The overall market valuation for SST and SOFC components is estimated at 239.4 billion yuan, excluding certain option-based businesses [10]. Group 4: Cost Breakdown for Data Center Operations - The cost of establishing 1 GW of computing power in data centers is estimated to be between 35 billion to 60 billion USD, with a detailed breakdown provided in a Bernstein report [11].

Group 1 - The core topic of the articles revolves around the increasing discussions on electricity shortages in the U.S. and the potential for power export, which is expected to create significant value for companies in the industry [1] - Companies mentioned, such as Jinpan and Igor, have recently performed well, indicating a positive market response to the electricity shortage narrative [1] - The article highlights that the electricity shortage in the U.S. is anticipated to be a main theme in the future, providing considerable value increments for companies within the supply chain [1] Group 2 - Delta's HVDC solutions and the related supply chain companies are discussed, emphasizing the exploration of value in power export and the U.S. electricity system [2] - The acquisition of Power Distribution by Eaton, which marks the arrival of the liquid cooling 2.0 era, is analyzed, suggesting a shift in technology and market dynamics [2] - The article mentions ongoing discussions and data regarding AI-related companies in the context of power export within a dedicated community platform [2]