第十六届奶业大会"中国奶业发展战略研讨会"7月13日举行，中国奶业协会副会长李胜利会上分享的数 据显示，2018年-2022年，奶业增加了100多万头奶牛，产能扩张过快，加上消费下行，奶源处于供大于 求状态，去产能成为奶业纾困的关键词。按照历史经验，本轮奶价周期底部已经确定，今年下半年或明 年上半年将是奶价反转的关键节点。 奶业去产能需求持续 为抵御当前奶价下行压力，几大原奶上市企业均延伸了业务布局。例如，中国优然牧业集团有限公司 （简称"优然牧业"）开发娟姗奶、A2蛋白奶、DHA奶、有机奶等特色生鲜乳，奶山羊牧场目前已开始 产奶。中国圣牧有机奶业有限公司（简称"中国圣牧"）2024年财报显示，在当前行业态势下，其销售的 沙漠有机奶，较普通原奶保持了较为稳定的溢价水平。澳亚集团则计划将肉牛牛群结构由目前的荷斯坦 牛品种升级至和牛、安格斯牛，并启动下游牛肉品牌，以进军高端市场。 在此次研讨会上，伊利集团高级执行总裁刘春喜表示，奶业发展受到周期波动影响，而奶业深加工是穿 越周期、破解难题的一把"金钥匙"。当原奶出现阶段性过剩时，通过深加工，可以把过剩原奶转化为高 附加值的产品，也能开发出更多"量身定制"的产品，满 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Consumption Boost Special Action Plan" marks the beginning of a significant initiative aimed at restoring consumer confidence for 1.4 billion people in China, focusing on trust rebuilding, supply upgrades, and institutional innovation [1] Group 1: Trust Breakthrough - The market share of domestic milk powder has increased from less than 30% a decade ago to over 68% today, reflecting a significant transformation in Chinese manufacturing [2] - The shift in consumer sentiment towards domestic brands is supported by quality data, with domestic milk powder's bacterial count being only 1/10 of the EU standard and protein content exceeding it by 20% [2] - Government-issued consumption vouchers are seen as a means to rebuild market trust through "government credit endorsement" [2] Group 2: Supply Breakthrough - Only 20% of Chinese consumers meet the recommended daily milk intake, indicating a significant gap in milk product consumption habits among over 1 billion people [3] - Innovations such as A2 protein milk powder and zero-sugar yogurt by Junlebao are aimed at tapping into this potential market [3] - Local initiatives like "night economy" and "concert economy" in Hunan and Jiangsu are designed to create new consumer demand [3] Group 3: Institutional Breakthrough - 62% of consumers believe that distinguishing product quality is too costly, highlighting a barrier to consumer confidence [9] - Policies aimed at increasing income and reducing burdens, such as dynamic adjustments to minimum wages and skill training subsidies, are being implemented [9] - The central bank is increasing consumer loan availability and trialing childcare subsidies to alleviate family financial burdens [11]