今日早参 2025 年 12 月 19 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 1 银行与证券行业首席研究员 座机：0755-23952763 邮箱：shenjuan@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：11 月美国 CPI 大幅低于预期但噪音较大 美国 11 月 CPI 超预期降温，主要分项均出现回落，背后原因是关税影响相对 温和以及就业市场偏弱拖累通胀。CPI 同比下行 0.3pp 至 2.7%，低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比下行 0.4pp 至 2.6%，亦低于预期。11 月 CPI 环比增速 （相对 9 月复合环比增速，下同）降至 0.1%，核心 CPI 环比降至 0.08%， 也位于较低水平。截至北京时间 23 点 10 分，联储降息预期上行 1bp 至 63bp，2y、10y 美债持平，美元指数微跌 0.1%，标普 500 上涨 0.6%。 风险提示：关税对通胀影响超预期，美国企业年初调价超预期。 研报发布日期：2025-12-19 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 ...

首先看美光的财报，它就像一束光，照亮了近期被"AI资本开支过高"疑云笼罩的科技板块。美光的核心 表述是：AI存储需求飙升，产品已全面售罄。这有力地证实了AI浪潮带来的硬件需求是真实且强劲 的，而不仅仅是蓝图和想象。这对于整个全球科技产业链，包括A股相关的半导体、存储和AI算力公 司，都是一个积极的情绪提振。它说明产业趋势的根基依然牢固。 再看CPI数据，同比2.7%的涨幅，显著低于市场预期的3.1%。这份迟到的数据，尽管因为统计问题存在 瑕疵，但它至少暂时缓解了市场对"通胀顽固、加息重启"的最大恐惧。它为美联储在未来维持甚至进一 步偏向宽松的货币政策，提供了更多空间。这对全球成长股估值都是一个潜在支撑。 所以，我的核心观点是：美股的这轮反弹，修复的是对"产业趋势"和"流动性环境"的双重信心。 它未 必意味着科技股将立刻重回单边上涨，但它很可能标志着由甲骨文事件引发的恐慌性抛售告一段落，市 场情绪进入一个震荡企稳、重新评估的阶段。 那么，这对我们A股投资者的操作有什么启示？我认为，外部的积极变化，为我们优化策略、聚焦主线 提供了一个更好的外部环境窗口。 朋友们，昨晚美股市场，尤其是科技股，算是喘了一口气。在连续 ...

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by over 238 points, closing at 46,758, with an increase of 0.51% [3] - The S&P 500 reached a new historical high during the day, peaking at 6,750, despite a minimal increase of 0.44 points at close [3] - The Nasdaq Composite experienced a decline of 63 points, down 0.28%, but all three major indices showed gains over the week: Dow up 1.1%, Nasdaq up 1.32%, and S&P up 1.09% [3] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown entered its third day with no resolution, affecting 750,000 federal employees who are on unpaid leave [3] - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns have a temporary impact on the economy, with the S&P 500 averaging a gain of over 3% during previous shutdowns [4] AI Market Influence - The current market sentiment is heavily influenced by the AI boom, with investors experiencing "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out), overshadowing concerns about the government shutdown [4] - Companies involved in AI storage, such as Seagate and Micron, have seen their stock prices double this year, contributing to bullish market sentiment [4] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The government shutdown has disrupted the September non-farm payroll report, which is the first occurrence since 2013 [5] - The absence of this data may reduce potential pressure on the stock market, leading to increased confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in October [5] Long-term Considerations - While the current market is buoyed by AI momentum, there are warnings from Wall Street veterans about potential similarities to the 1990s internet bubble, indicating that valuations may be high [5] - Key factors to monitor include the duration of the government shutdown and whether the AI hype can translate into actual profitability [5]