华尔街最热门的交易策略"Run it hot"正推动美股屡创新高。 "Run it hot"策略的核心逻辑是，减税和降息政策将共同为经济"加热"，从而激发新一轮增长浪潮。 本周，美联储预计将进行降息，华尔街则期待未来几个月 会有更多宽松政策出台，这进一步强化了市场的风险偏好。 市场表现印证了这种热情。上周，道琼斯工业平均指数首次突破46000点大关，标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数也纷纷触及历史新高。与此同时，对利率前 景敏感的两年期美国国债收益率跌至三年来的最低水平，反映出市场对降息的强烈预期。 然而，这种高涨的乐观情绪与主流经济叙事中的一些担忧形成鲜明对比。 交易员们似乎对疲弱的就业报告和关税可能拖累经济增长的风险视而不见，反而全心 拥抱降息将提振企业利润的前景。 这种分歧，也让"Run it hot"策略成为当前市场中最受瞩目也最具争议的焦点。 押注宽松政策双重刺激 "Run it hot"交易的核心，是在经济面临不确定性时，选择相信政策的支撑力量。推广了这一术语的Unlimited Funds首席执行官Bob Elliott指出： "'Run it hot'交易的内核在于，美国经济将在宽松的货币和财政 ...

目前，AI投资仍处于高速扩张阶段。然而，部分市场分析师预测，今年第四季至2026年之间，AI支出 增长将明显减速。根据Slickchart数据，AI最大受益者英伟达在标普500指数中的权重接近7%。该指数中 市值占比超36%的前八大公司均为AI领域的主要投资者，且正积极推出相关产品与服务。高盛警告，若 AI投资热潮退去，相关概念股恐面临大幅回调，进而拖累标普500指数整体表现。 格隆汇9月15日｜高盛分析师Ryan Hammond发表研究报告中指，超大规模企业未来可能不得不削减AI 相关支出，若长期增长预期回落至2023年初水平，标普500指数当前估值恐将下滑15%至20%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom (AVGO.US) shares rose over 8.5%, reaching a historic high of $365.458, driven by the company's focus on AI revenue growth [1] Group 1: AI Strategy - Broadcom's President and CEO, Hock E. Tan, stated that meeting the AI computing needs of a few core customers is the company's top priority [1] - The company anticipates that its AI revenue will surpass the total of its software and non-AI revenue within the next two years, indicating a significant shift in business focus [1] Group 2: Financial Goals - A new executive incentive plan, the "Tan PSU Award," sets a target for AI annual revenue to reach $120 billion by fiscal year 2030 [1] - This target represents a fivefold increase compared to Goldman Sachs' forecast of $20 billion in AI revenue for Broadcom by fiscal year 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current volatility of Chinese AI stocks indicates that the market has not yet reached the typical characteristics of an asset bubble peak, suggesting further upside potential [2][3][7]. Volatility Signals - Since July, the stock price of Cambrian has increased by over 146%, and Alibaba reported triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue, leading to an 18% opening price increase [5]. - A tracked portfolio of Chinese AI stocks, including Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Cambrian, achieved a remarkable 74.0% return by 2025, with a realized volatility of 48.4% over three months, lower than 52.1% in 2024 [7]. - The current volatility levels have not reached the typical patterns seen before asset bubbles peak, indicating that the Chinese AI market may still have significant room for growth [7]. Historical Reflection - There is a risk of the Chinese AI market repeating the extreme bubble seen in Japan's 1990s internet stocks, where supply could not meet demand, leading to extreme price increases [11][14]. - The report highlights that if the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) sentiment spreads among retail investors in the Chinese AI sector, and if the supply of AI stocks remains limited, it could lead to similar or even more extreme market dynamics [14]. - Historical experience suggests that when excessive funds chase too few stocks, it can exacerbate market imbalances and increase bubble risks [14]. Regulatory Considerations - The report warns that excessive irrational exuberance in the market may prompt regulatory actions to curb speculative behavior, although such measures may only occur after a bubble has formed [14].