IT之家 12 月 29 日消息，Counterpoint 在最新见解中预测，2023~2030 年消费者在生成式 AI 领域的支出将从 2023 年的 2250 亿美元快速增长到 2030 年的 6990 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 4.9 万亿元人民币），复合年增长率 (CAGR) 达到 21%。 ▲ 图源：Counterpoint 消费者在 GenAI 上支出主要可分为硬件和软件两大板块。其中在硬件部分，GenAI 智能手机的出货数量预计可实现 26% 的 CAGR，相关营收的 CAGR 也可 达到 16%。 而软件方面的增长则会更为显著：AI 聊天机器人的月活有望增长近 50 亿人，个人助理和内容生成工具也将成为显著增长点。机构预计 OpenAI 仍将保有最 大的用户群体，谷歌和微软的移动端 GenAI 用户数量增幅则会最为显著。 ...

最近，Notion 创始人 Ivan Zhao 写了一篇年终总结《Steam, Steel, and Infinite Minds》。 Ivan 讲了一个特别有趣的观点： AI 是我们这个时代的「革命性材料」。 就像工业时代的钢铁、数字时代的半导体一样。 AI 作为「infinite minds」已经来了。谁能掌握这种核心材料，谁就能定义一个时代。 借用麦克卢汉的一句话：「我们总是看着后视镜驶向未来。」在大的技术变革初期，人们总是有一种认知惯性：习惯于用旧的、熟悉的框架，去理解和应 用全新的事物。 对比已经用上 AI 的程序员，大多数知识工作者的工作方式，仍像是在高速路上踩自行车，靠人力驱动。上下文的碎片化，让人类像「胶水」一样，通过 复制粘贴和在不同浏览器标签页间来回切换，将碎片信息拼接起来。 「human in the loop」也不总是理想的状态。让人深度介入到每一个执行环节，就像在汽车发明后，还在派一个人举着旗子走在车前开道。 这篇文章给出了一个更大的视角去思考，未来我们的个人生产力、组织架构乃至经济模式应该是什么样。 ⬆️关注 Founder Park，最及时最干货的创业分享 超 17000 人的「 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the optical module industry, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology [11]. Core Insights - The optical communication technology iteration is accelerating, with the cycle for 800G and 1.6T modules reduced to 2 years or less, driven by material innovation and process revolution [1][22]. - The evolution of architecture in optical communication focuses on integrating light technology closer to chips, addressing bandwidth, power consumption, and distance limitations [2][23]. - The competitive landscape indicates that leading companies will continue to strengthen their positions, benefiting from early market entry and technological advancements [3][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies in the computing and optical communication sectors, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication, among others [14][27]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen a decline, with the optical communication index performing relatively well compared to other segments [18][21]. Competitive Landscape - Leading firms in the optical module market are expected to maintain their advantages, with a clear trend of "the strong getting stronger" as they continue to innovate and capture market share [3][24][25]. Technology Evolution - The integration of silicon photonics and other advanced technologies is transforming optical communication from a simple transmission medium to a powerful computational resource [1][22]. - Multiple optical communication solutions, such as LPO, CPO, and OIO, are likely to coexist, allowing companies to tailor their offerings to specific application scenarios [2][23]. Key Companies - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication, as well as upstream component manufacturers like Taicheng Technology and Shijia Photonics [7][8][27].

传统软件公司为产品添加 AI 聊天机器人 ↓↓↓ 往期趣图 （点击下方图片可跳转阅读） ...