(Corrects chairman's first name to Ray, not Rey, in paragraph 8) By Wen-Yee Lee TAIPEI, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Taiwan's Compal, a contract manufacturer ​for notebook and personal computers, said surging memory prices would continue ‌into 2027 and have a significant impact on the industry. The company said it expected global notebook ‌and personal computer shipments to fall by a low-single-digit percentage in 2026. “We believe the total market will be impacted for sure,” Chief Executive Officer Anthony Pet ...

2026.01. 21 本文字数：1191，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 一财 阿驴 11:31 A股午盘丨科创50指数涨近3% 截至午盘，沪指涨0.16%，深成指涨0.76%，创业板指涨0.85%。科创综指涨1.91%，科创50指数涨 近3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | NW | 4120.10 | 6.45 | 0.16% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 14263.20 | 107.57 | 0.76% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | mi | 3306.00 | 28.02 | 0.85% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | | 1855.19 | 34.71 | 1.91% | | 000688 | 科创50 | | 1526.83 | 43.84 | 2.96% | 盘面上，算力硬件产业链走强，GPU、服务器方向领涨；锂矿、半导体、AI手机、稀土、人形机器 人概念股活跃。煤炭、零售、白酒、银行、电力板块走弱。 沪深两市半日 ...

Core Insights - North American cloud service providers (CSPs) are significantly increasing investments in AI infrastructure, which is expected to drive global AI server shipment growth of over 28% annually by 2026 [1] - The substantial computational load generated by AI inference services is leading to a replacement and expansion cycle for general servers [1] - TrendForce forecasts that the total global server shipments, including AI servers, will grow by 12.8% annually by 2026, with an increased growth rate compared to 2025 [1]

Core Insights - North American cloud service providers (CSPs) are significantly increasing investments in AI infrastructure, leading to a projected annual growth rate of over 28% in global AI server shipments by 2026 [1] - The demand for AI inference services is driving a replacement and expansion cycle for general servers, with an expected annual growth rate of 12.8% in global server shipments (including AI servers) by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - From 2024 to 2025, the server market will focus on training advanced large language models (LLMs) using AI servers equipped with GPUs and HBM for parallel computing [3] - Starting in the second half of 2025, the development of AI inference services such as AI Agents, LLaMA model applications, and Copilot upgrades will prompt CSPs to shift towards monetization and profit models [3] - The total capital expenditure growth rate for the five major North American CSPs (Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) is projected to reach 40% in 2026, driven by large-scale infrastructure investments and the replacement of general servers purchased during the 2019-2021 cloud investment boom [3] Group 2: AI Server Market Dynamics - The 2026 AI server market will be primarily driven by North American CSPs, government sovereign cloud projects, and large CSPs accelerating their own ASIC development and edge AI inference solutions [4] - GPUs are expected to account for 69.7% of AI chip usage, with NVIDIA's GB300 models becoming the mainstream for shipments, while VR200 will gradually ramp up in the second half of the year [4] Group 3: ASIC Development - The share of ASIC AI servers in shipments is expected to rise to 27.8% by 2026, the highest since 2023, with growth rates surpassing those of GPU AI servers [6] - Google is leading the investment in self-developed ASICs, with its TPU not only serving Google Cloud Platform infrastructure but also being sold to external companies like Anthropic [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth in the AI server market, driven by increased investments from North American Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) and the rising demand for AI infrastructure, predicting a global AI server shipment growth of over 28% in 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Market Growth Projections - Global server shipments are expected to grow by 12.8% in 2026, with AI server shipments contributing to this growth at over 28% [5][6]. - Major CSPs like Google and Microsoft are anticipated to increase their procurement of general servers to meet the rising demand for inference traffic [5][7]. Group 2: Technological Developments - The server market from 2024 to 2025 will focus on training advanced large language models (LLMs) using AI servers equipped with GPUs and HBM for parallel computing [6]. - By the second half of 2025, the development of AI inference services will accelerate, with CSPs shifting towards monetization and profit models [6]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - The total capital expenditure of major North American CSPs, including Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, is projected to increase by 40% in 2026, driven by large-scale infrastructure investments and the replacement of older general servers [7]. - Google and Microsoft are expected to be the most aggressive in increasing their general server procurement to support daily inference traffic demands [7]. Group 4: AI Server Market Dynamics - The AI server market in 2026 will be primarily driven by North American CSPs, government sovereign cloud projects, and the acceleration of ASIC development by large CSPs [8]. - GPU is expected to account for 69.7% of AI chip usage, with NVIDIA's GB300 models becoming the mainstream shipment [8]. Group 5: ASIC Server Developments - The shipment share of ASIC AI servers is projected to rise to 27.8% in 2026, marking the highest level since 2023, with growth rates surpassing those of GPU AI servers [8]. - Google is expected to lead the ASIC market, with significant investments in self-developed ASICs for its cloud services and external sales [8].

Summary of J.P. Morgan's PC and Server Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the **PC and server markets**, highlighting trends and forecasts for shipments and demand in the coming years. Key Points on PC Market - **Shipment Growth Forecasts**: - Adjusted global PC shipment growth forecast for 2025 is **+8%**, while a decline of **-9%** is expected in 2026 [1] - **Demand Trends**: - Anticipated downside in PC unit demand due to **memory-driven product price hikes** [1][4] - A significant **20%+ increase** in product prices has been noted recently, impacting consumer PC demand [4] - Forecasts indicate **10%** decline in consumer PC shipments and **7%** decline in commercial PC shipments for 2026 [11] - **Commercial PC Demand**: - Muted refresh demand is expected this year, with a potential pause in demand from **2Q26** onwards [1][11] - **Competition**: - Increased competition in mainstream PCs due to new model launches from major players like **Dell** and **Apple** [4] Key Points on Server Market - **General Server Demand**: - Strong demand from **US Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)** is expected to continue into 2026, particularly for storage servers driven by AI inference activities [4] - Forecasted **30%+ growth** in CSP server shipments, offset by a single-digit decline in enterprise server demand [11] - **AI Server Growth**: - Notable ramp-up in **GB300 server shipments** is expected, with estimates of **50-70k NVL72 rack shipments** this year, driven by strong AI server demand [4] - Anticipated growth in **ASIC server demand**, particularly for TPU servers [4] - **Overall Server Shipment Growth**: - Total server shipment growth forecast for 2026 is **14.6%**, up from previous estimates of **+4.6%** [11] Key Companies Mentioned - **Positive Outlook**: - Companies such as **Wiwynn**, **Hon Hai**, and **Quanta** are favored in the server ODM space [1] - For server components, **ASPEED**, **Delta**, **Jentech**, and **Lotes** are highlighted [1] - **Cautious Outlook**: - Companies like **ASUSTek**, **Micro-Star**, and **Compal** are viewed with caution due to expected challenges in the PC segment [1] Additional Insights - **Memory Component Costs**: - A significant increase in memory component costs is expected, leading to at least **double YoY memory costs** in the upcoming quarters [4] - **Market Dynamics**: - The report indicates a prolonged supercycle in general servers driven by AI demand, with potential risks from component supply constraints [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan analysis on the PC and server markets, providing a comprehensive overview of expected trends, challenges, and opportunities within the industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **AI Hardware Market**: The AI hardware market is expected to grow significantly, with GPU AI server shipments projected to increase at a 31% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, leading to a total server market value of approximately US$650 billion by 2027 [1][17][20]. - **Data Center Investments**: Over US$800 billion in data center investments are planned, but potential delays may arise due to infrastructure readiness, policy changes, and labor shortages, which could impact AI capital expenditures in 2027 [1][20]. Company-Specific Insights Delta Electronics - **Rating**: Outperform with a price target of NT$1,300. - **Growth**: Expected EPS CAGR of 34% from 2025 to 2027, driven by a broad power portfolio and increased in-house liquid cooling production [5][8]. Luxshare - **Rating**: Outperform with a price target of RMB 74. - **Market Position**: Anticipated to ramp up server component shipments to U.S. customers, benefiting from strong sentiment in the Apple supply chain [5][12]. Chroma ATE - **Rating**: Outperform with a price target of NT$970. - **Long-term Outlook**: Positive long-term prospects due to the ability to capitalize on global tech trends, with EPS estimates raised for 2026-27 [5][9]. Unimicron Technology - **Rating**: Outperform with a price target of NT$270. - **Market Momentum**: Expected strong stock performance in the near term due to favorable substrate pricing and improving HDI yield [5][10]. Quanta Computer - **Rating**: Underperform with a price target of NT$250. - **Challenges**: Anticipated margin pressures due to the buy-sell model for AI servers, with AI server mix expected to represent 60%-65% of total revenue in 2026-27 [5][11]. Sunny Optical - **Rating**: Outperform with a price target of HK$88. - **Revenue Mix**: Growth in non-smartphone revenue is expected to support margins, despite concerns over memory pricing impacts [5][13]. Largan Precision - **Rating**: Market-Perform with a price target of NT$2,600. - **Short-term Opportunity**: Tactical long opportunity ahead of the iPhone 18 launch, but long-term caution due to limited diversification beyond smartphones [5][14]. Market Dynamics - **Power Components**: The total addressable market (TAM) for NVIDIA server power components is expected to grow by 70-85% year-over-year in 2026-27, with strong demand for liquid cooling and HDI providing margin support for leading suppliers [2][31]. - **Competition**: Rising competition in cooling components is expected to pressure pricing in the second half of 2026, particularly if NVIDIA standardizes the L10 board for Vera Rubin [2][32]. Consumer Electronics Insights - **Apple vs. Android**: The Apple supply chain is viewed as more attractive than Android's, with iPhone shipments expected to grow at a low-to-mid-single digit rate in 2026-2027, driven by new product launches and enhanced AI features [3][39]. - **AI Glasses Market**: The market for AI glasses is projected to grow significantly, with shipments expected to reach approximately 10 million units in 2025 and close to 20 million by 2029 [41][50]. Investment Implications - **Overall Sentiment**: The investment sentiment remains positive for companies like Delta, Luxshare, and Chroma, while caution is advised for Quanta due to margin pressures. The overall outlook for the AI hardware market is robust, with significant growth expected in the coming years [5][8][12][11].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: IT Hardware, specifically focusing on North America - **Key Trends**: Rising memory costs, HDD supply shortages, and strong demand for AI servers are shaping the current landscape Core Insights 1. **iPhone Demand**: iPhone strength is expected to continue into CY26, with December 2025 tracking 20-40% year-over-year growth in China, partly due to Huawei's decline [13][11] 2. **HDD Supply Shortage**: The HDD supply shortage is worsening, now projected to be 200EB short of demand over the next 12 months, up from previous estimates of 100-150EB [12][15] 3. **Price Increases**: Most hardware OEMs, except Apple, are expected to raise product prices significantly in the first half of CY26 to offset rising memory costs, which may lead to unit declines in Android smartphones and Windows PCs for the full year [2][12] 4. **AI Server Demand**: Demand for AI servers remains robust, with over 30% year-over-year growth expected for general servers among cloud service providers (CSPs) in 2026 [2][21] 5. **OEM Headcount Reductions**: OEMs like DELL, HPQ, and HPE are likely to cut headcount to protect operating margins due to rising input costs and a shift towards AI servers, which have lower gross margins [2][12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Memory Pricing**: DRAM prices are expected to increase by 40-70% quarter-over-quarter in C1Q26, while NAND prices are projected to rise by 30-35% [9][8] 2. **Apple's Strategy**: Apple has secured favorable NAND pricing through a deal with KIOXIA but may face renegotiations in early 2026. Apple is also expected to introduce a low-cost MacBook at $599 in C1H26 to gain market share [7][14] 3. **General Server Pricing**: General server pricing is anticipated to increase significantly due to rising memory costs, which may lead to a strong C1Q26 followed by a weaker second half of the year [12][19] 4. **PC Market Dynamics**: PC demand is currently stable, with OEMs negotiating prices due to rising memory costs. Smaller OEMs may struggle to secure memory supply compared to larger players like DELL and HPQ [20][22] 5. **Supply Chain Adjustments**: HDD makers are reallocating capacity from consumer applications to cloud demand, and STX is raising consumer HDD prices by 10% each quarter to align margins with nearline drives [15][12] Conclusion The IT hardware industry is facing significant challenges and opportunities driven by rising memory costs, supply shortages, and shifting demand towards AI servers. Companies are adapting their strategies to navigate these dynamics, with a focus on maintaining margins and market share.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Greater China Technology sector, focusing on trends and projections for 2026, particularly in AI and related technologies, as well as the smartphone supply chain influenced by Apple’s form factor changes [2][3]. Key Trends Identified for 2026 1. **AI Servers**: Anticipated growth in rack-level AI servers, with shipments expected to rise to 50,000 racks in 2026 from 19,000 in 2025. Major suppliers include Hon Hai and FII, with a projected ASIC penetration rate of 40% in 2026 and 45% in 2027 [1][13]. 2. **Optical Transceivers**: Growth in optical module shipments, with a forecasted increase of 253% year-over-year in 2026, driven by the demand for high-speed connections in AI data centers [1][13]. 3. **Cooling Solutions**: A shift towards liquid cooling in AI servers is expected, reflecting the rising complexity and computing power requirements [1][13]. 4. **Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs)**: Companies with strong commitments and capacity plans in the US, such as Hon Hai, Wistron, and Wiwynn, are expected to outperform in the market [1][13]. 5. **Smartphones**: Apple suppliers are projected to excel in 2026, while Android smartphone demand remains muted. The introduction of foldable iPhones may drive demand [1][2]. 6. **Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs)**: Demand is expected to remain solid despite ongoing debates about long-term supply and demand dynamics [1]. 7. **Semiconductors**: Local leaders in advanced nodes, such as SMIC and Hua Hong, are expected to drive industry growth, supported by rising local GPU suppliers [1]. 8. **L4 Chips & Robotaxi**: Continued upgrades and expansions in this area are anticipated, contributing to growth for chipset, software, and sensor suppliers [1]. 9. **LEO Satellites**: Accelerating satellite launches and reduced launch costs are expected to drive the development of constellation networking infrastructure [1]. Financial Projections - AI and AI-related technologies are expected to deliver mid-double-digit year-over-year revenue growth in 2026 [2]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for global smartphones is raised by 1% to 2% for 2026 and 2027 due to higher average selling prices (ASP) [3]. - The TAM for global PCs is projected to increase by 3% year-over-year for 2025 and 2026, with gaming PCs expected to reach a penetration rate of 11% to 13% by 2025 and 2028 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies as "Buy" recommendations based on their expected performance in the evolving technology landscape, particularly in AI servers and components [14]. - Specific companies mentioned include Hon Hai, FII, Wistron, and various optical component manufacturers like Innolight and Eoptolink [14]. Additional Insights - The complexity of AI servers is expected to lead to a reliance on leading suppliers with strong designs and manufacturing capabilities, creating a stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of R&D, vertical integration, and comprehensive chipset platform exposure for companies to succeed in the market [14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and investment opportunities within the Greater China Technology sector for 2026.

Core Viewpoint - Nebius is currently viewed as a risky investment due to its high debt levels and the significant capital required for its aggressive data center expansion plans [1][8]. Financial Position - At the end of the previous quarter, Nebius had $4.8 billion in cash and $4.6 billion in debt, indicating a tight financial position as it plans to construct a 1 GW data center, which is estimated to cost $10 billion, plus an additional $20 billion to $30 billion for chips [1]. - The company is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 64, significantly higher than the Nasdaq Composite's ratio of 5.5, suggesting that the stock is expensive relative to its sales [2]. Growth Potential - Nebius has a backlog exceeding $20 billion, which is expected to convert into revenue next year and beyond, supporting its growth trajectory [3]. - The company plans to increase its connected data center power capacity from 220 MW to a range of 800 MW to 1 GW by the end of next year, indicating a substantial expansion in capacity [4]. Stock Performance - Despite a remarkable revenue growth of 437% to $302 million in the first nine months of 2025, Nebius has lost about one-third of its value since reaching a 52-week high on October 10 [5]. - The stock has experienced significant volatility, with analysts suggesting that while there may be upside potential, the stock's recent pullback raises concerns [6][9]. Funding Strategy - To finance its data center construction, Nebius will need to take on more debt and sell additional shares, utilizing corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity as sources of funding [8]. - Investors should anticipate share dilution and increased interest expenses due to the higher debt load [8]. Market Context - The demand for AI data center infrastructure is rapidly growing, with Nebius being one of the key players in this space, although concerns about debt-fueled financing are emerging [9]. - In contrast, Dell Technologies is highlighted as a more stable investment in the AI infrastructure sector, with a significant market share and anticipated revenue growth in its AI server business [10][11].