Core Viewpoint - The healthcare sector presents significant investment opportunities for long-term investors, particularly in stocks that demonstrate growth potential and resilience against market fluctuations [2]. Group 1: Pfizer - Pfizer has experienced a transformative period, shifting from slow growth to a surge in revenue due to the success of its COVID-19 vaccine developed with BioNTech [4]. - The company has strategically utilized profits from its COVID-19 products to acquire other firms, including a pivotal $43 billion acquisition of Seagen in 2023, enhancing its oncology portfolio with four approved cancer therapies [5][6]. - Pfizer's recent product launches include a range of treatments such as the RSV vaccine Abrysvo and the migraine treatment Nurtec, which are expected to drive future growth [7]. - The company reported total revenue of approximately $45 billion in the first nine months of 2025, with a 24% year-over-year increase in GAAP net income to $9.4 billion [10]. - Pfizer has a strong dividend history, delivering over $7 billion in cash dividends in the first nine months of 2025, with a current yield close to 7% [11]. - The company is focusing on non-COVID growth areas, including oncology and cardiometabolic treatments, while also pursuing acquisitions to counteract patent expirations [9][12]. Group 2: Viking Therapeutics - Viking Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with its value largely dependent on successful clinical trials and regulatory approvals [13]. - The lead candidate, VK2735, has shown promising results in early trials for weight loss and diabetes improvement, targeting both GLP-1 and GIP receptors [14][15]. - The injectable formulation of VK2735 is in phase 3 trials and has demonstrated significant weight reduction, positioning it competitively against existing treatments [17]. - Viking has a diversified pipeline, including candidates for metabolic liver disease and a rare genetic condition, which may reduce reliance on a single product's success [18][19]. - The company ended Q3 2025 with over $715 million in cash, providing stability for ongoing research and development without immediate fundraising concerns [19][20].

Core Insights - Moderna reported a loss of $0.51 per share in Q3 2025, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $2.15, compared to an EPS of $0.03 in the same period last year [1][10] - Total revenues for the quarter were $1.02 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $860 million, but representing a 45% decline year over year due to lower net product sales [1][10] Revenue Breakdown - Moderna has three marketed vaccines: Spikevax, mNexspike, and mResvia. Product sales fell nearly 47% year over year to $973 million [2] - Sales from COVID-19 vaccines amounted to $971 million, down 46% year over year, attributed to lower vaccination rates and the transition of COVID-19 to a seasonal market [2] - mResvia sales were only $2 million, significantly below the estimated $30 million, and down 80% year over year due to competition from GSK's Arexvy and Pfizer's Abrysvo [3] Operating Costs and Efficiency - SG&A expenses decreased by 5% year over year to $268 million, primarily due to cuts in consulting and external services [5] - R&D expenses were reduced by 30% to $801 million, reflecting a focus on efficiency and prioritization of clinical development [5] Guidance and Outlook - Moderna revised its total revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $1.6-$2.0 billion, down from $1.5-$2.2 billion [6] - The company also lowered its R&D expense guidance to $3.3-$3.4 billion, from a previous estimate of $3.6-$3.8 billion, while maintaining SG&A and capital expenditure guidance at approximately $1.1 billion and $0.3 billion, respectively [7] Market Reaction - Shares of Moderna rose by 10% in pre-market trading, likely due to the company's cost-cutting measures and improved liquidity outlook, now projected to be between $6.5-$7.0 billion by year-end 2025 [8] Pipeline Developments - Moderna is developing over 40 mRNA-based candidates across various clinical stages, including a personalized cancer therapy in collaboration with Merck [12][16] - The company discontinued development of mRNA-1647 for CMV prevention after failing to meet primary efficacy endpoints but continues to study it in mid-stage trials for bone marrow transplant patients [13] - Positive results from a phase III study for mRNA-1010, a standalone influenza vaccine, have led to plans for regulatory submissions in early 2026 [14] - The company is also working on mRNA-1083, a combination vaccine for COVID-19 and influenza, and is awaiting further guidance from the FDA [15]

Core Insights - Pfizer reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 87 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 66 cents, but reflecting an 18% decline year over year [1] - Total revenues were $16.7 billion, down 6% from the previous year, primarily due to decreased sales from COVID-19 products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, although it slightly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.60 billion [2] Revenue Breakdown - International revenues increased by 2% on an operational basis to $5.96 billion, while U.S. revenues fell by 11% to $10.69 billion [2] - The Primary Care segment saw a 16% operational decline to $7.65 billion, while Specialty Care recorded a 1% increase to $4.41 billion, and Oncology sales rose by 4% to $4.25 billion [3] Product Performance - Eliquis sales rose by 22% to $2.02 billion, surpassing estimates, despite some price erosion in international markets [4] - Global Prevnar family revenues decreased by 4% to $1.74 billion, missing estimates, with U.S. sales down 12% but international sales up 17% [5] - Comirnaty sales were $1.15 billion, down 20% year over year, but still beat estimates [6] - Paxlovid revenues fell by 55% to $1.23 billion due to lower infection rates, although it exceeded estimates [7] - New product Abrysvo recorded sales of $279 million, down 22% year over year due to limited vaccination recommendations [8] Specialty Care and Oncology - Vyndaqel family revenues rose by 7% to $1.59 billion, driven by increased diagnosis and treatment rates, but missed estimates [9][10] - Ibrance revenues declined by 5% to $1.06 billion, beating estimates [11] - Among ADCs from the Seagen acquisition, Adcetris sales fell by 20% to $215 million, while Padcev rose by 13% to $464 million, missing estimates [12] Guidance and Outlook - Pfizer reaffirmed its 2025 revenue guidance of $61.0 billion to $64.0 billion and raised its adjusted EPS guidance to $3.00-$3.15 from $2.90-$3.10 [14] - Research and development expenses are projected to be between $10.0 billion and $11.0 billion, with an adjusted tax rate expected around 11% [15] Competitive Landscape - Pfizer is engaged in a competitive acquisition battle with Novo Nordisk for Metsera, with Pfizer's offer at approximately $4.9 billion and Novo Nordisk's unsolicited proposal at around $6.5 billion [18][19] - Pfizer has also signed a drug pricing agreement with the Trump administration, aiming to cut prescription drug prices in exchange for tariff exemptions [20]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company recorded revenues of $16.7 billion, a decrease of 7% operationally compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by a decline in COVID products [23] - Reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.62, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.87, exceeding expectations due to strong gross margin and cost management performance [24] - Adjusted gross margin for the quarter was approximately 76%, reflecting product mix and strong cost management [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-COVID product performance was solid, growing 4% operationally compared to the same period last year, with significant contributions from Eliquis, the Vyndaqel family, and Nurtec [23][24] - The Vyndaqel family achieved 7% year-over-year global operational growth, while Padcev saw 13% year-over-year global operational growth [14][15] - The company’s recently launched and acquired products generated $7.3 billion in revenue, growing approximately 9% operationally year-over-year [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In international markets, the Vyndaqel family achieved 40% growth in total patients on treatment, while Nurtec led the oral CGRP class in primary care penetration in the U.S. [15] - The Prevnar family of vaccines saw 17% year-over-year international operational growth, with strong performance in pediatric pneumococcal vaccination [16] - The company expects the lung cancer market to reach approximately $70 billion by 2023, with significant growth potential in its lung cancer portfolio [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strategic investments in innovation and growth, highlighted by the proposed acquisition of MedSera and the licensing agreement with 3SBio [6][8] - The company aims to enhance its R&D pipeline and commercial capabilities, particularly in the high-growth therapeutic area of obesity [8] - The recent agreement with the U.S. government aims to lower prescription drug costs while allowing the company to invest in U.S. manufacturing [7][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver value for patients and shareholders, despite challenges in the COVID product line [5] - The company raised its adjusted diluted EPS guidance for the full year 2025, reflecting strong performance and improved cost structure [33] - Management noted that the agreement with the U.S. government will not impact 2025 guidance but may affect the 2026 financial outlook [32] Other Important Information - The company expects to achieve $1.5 billion in savings from its manufacturing optimization program by the end of 2027 [26] - The gross leverage at the end of Q3 was approximately 2.7 times, with expectations to return to target levels post-MedSera acquisition [31] - The company plans to provide guidance for 2026 by the end of the year [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Vyndamax performance amid competition - Management acknowledged new competition but emphasized Vyndamax's unique benefits and strong market access, noting that volume growth was offset by gross-to-net headwinds [41][42] Question: Legal process regarding MedSera acquisition - Management stated that it is difficult to comment on the timing of legal proceedings but reiterated their belief that Novo's acquisition attempt is anti-competitive [48][50] Question: Plans if MedSera acquisition does not proceed - Management confirmed ongoing efforts to identify potential acquisition candidates across therapeutic areas, regardless of the MedSera outcome [52][54] Question: Dynamics of Paxlovid pricing - Management clarified that there were no significant changes in Paxlovid pricing, attributing variations to channel mix rather than material price changes [74] Question: Guidance on COVID-19 sales for the year - Management indicated that achieving the previously stated $9 billion in COVID sales is uncertain, depending on potential future COVID waves [87][90] Question: Pricing strategy for GLP-1 medicines - Management acknowledged that competition is driving prices down and that their calculations for the MedSera acquisition took this into account [94] Question: Delay in initiation of pivotal trial for pneumococcal vaccine - Management explained that the delay is due to ongoing discussions with the FDA regarding study designs and endpoints, with plans to align pediatric and adult studies [100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company recorded revenues of $16.7 billion, a decrease of 7% operationally compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by a decline in COVID products, particularly Paxlovid [20][21] - Reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.62, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.87, exceeding expectations due to strong gross margin and cost management performance [21][24] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 was approximately 76%, reflecting product mix and strong cost management within the manufacturing footprint [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The non-COVID product performance was solid, growing 4% operationally compared to the same period last year, with strong contributions from Eliquis, the Vyndaqel family, and Nurtec [20][21] - The Vyndaqel family achieved 7% year-over-year global operational growth, while Padcev saw 13% year-over-year global operational growth [12][13] - The vaccines portfolio, particularly the Prevnar family, achieved 17% year-over-year international operational growth [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In international markets, the company achieved 40% growth in total patients on treatment for the Vyndaqel family [12] - The U.S. market saw double-digit demand growth for the Vyndaqel family, reflecting strong diagnostic efforts and broad access [12][13] - The company experienced a year-over-year decline in the U.S. for Prevnar 20, attributed to delayed government bulk orders [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strategic investments in future innovation and growth, highlighted by the proposed acquisition of MedSera and the licensing agreement with 3SBio [4][5] - The company aims to enhance its R&D pipeline and commercial capabilities, particularly in the cardiometabolic area and oncology [6][8] - The recent agreement with the U.S. government is expected to lower prescription drug costs and provide clarity for future investments [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's position to deliver value for patients and shareholders, despite challenges in the COVID product line [4][18] - The company raised its adjusted diluted EPS guidance for the full year 2025, reflecting strong performance and improved cost structure [30] - Management noted that the agreement with the U.S. government will not impact 2025 guidance but may have a diluted effect on 2026 financial outlook [29] Other Important Information - The company expects to achieve $1.5 billion in savings from the manufacturing optimization program by the end of 2027 [23][25] - The MedSera acquisition is expected to be funded through a mix of available cash and debt, with anticipated dilution to adjusted EPS in 2026 [26][27] - The company plans to continue investing in R&D and business development to enhance its product portfolio and pipeline [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on Vyndamax performance amid competition - Management acknowledged new competition but emphasized Vyndamax's unique benefits and strong market share, despite some gross-to-net headwinds impacting net sales [32][35] Question: Legal process regarding MedSera acquisition - Management stated that it is difficult to comment on the timing of legal proceedings but reiterated the belief that Novo's acquisition attempt is anti-competitive [38][39] Question: Plans if MedSera acquisition does not proceed - Management indicated that the company has significant resources and will continue to pursue business development opportunities across therapeutic areas [39][40] Question: Impact of manufacturing investments under the MFN agreement - Management highlighted the importance of both manufacturing investments and operational cost efficiencies, indicating that both will be prioritized [42][43] Question: Guidance for total COVID-19 sales - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in COVID-19 sales but reiterated confidence in achieving the overall revenue guidance range [49] Question: Pricing dynamics for GLP-1 medications - Management acknowledged that competition may drive prices down but indicated that their calculations for the MedSera acquisition took potential pricing declines into account [51] Question: Delay in initiation of pivotal trial for pneumococcal program - Management explained that the timing of the trial initiation is contingent on FDA alignment and that they are coordinating pediatric and adult studies [52][53]

Core Insights - Moderna (MRNA) is expected to report Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, with sales estimated at $860 million and a loss of $2.15 per share, indicating a significant decline from the previous year [1] - The consensus estimate for loss per share has widened from $9.50 to $9.74 over the past month [1] Earnings Performance - Moderna has beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 37.78%, including a 28.76% surprise in the last reported quarter [2][3] Revenue Expectations - The majority of Q3 revenues are anticipated to come from COVID-19 vaccines, with combined sales estimated at $762 million, reflecting a significant decline due to reduced demand for boosters [5][6] - Minimal sales of the RSV vaccine, mResvia, are expected at $30 million, significantly lower than competitors GSK's Arexvy and Pfizer's Abrysvo [7] Pipeline Developments - Moderna is developing over 40 mRNA-based candidates across various clinical stages, with a focus on updates following the recent setback in the CMV vaccine program [8] - The pivotal Phase III study for mRNA-1647 failed to meet primary efficacy endpoints, leading to its discontinuation, although it continues to be studied in mid-stage trials [9] - Investors are also focused on mRNA-1083, a COVID-19/influenza combination vaccine, which is on track for FDA resubmission [10] - Intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy developed with Merck, is undergoing pivotal studies, and updates on its progress are anticipated [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Moderna's shares have decreased by 40%, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [13][14] - The stock is trading at a premium valuation, with a price/sales ratio of 3.14 compared to the industry average of 2.33 [16] Investment Outlook - Despite significant declines in revenue, Moderna's cash position of approximately $7.5 billion allows for continued investment in pipeline development [18] - The recent CMV vaccine setback has raised concerns about the company's growth trajectory and reliance on other late-stage assets [19][20] - Plans to launch 10 new marketed products by 2028 targeting a market exceeding $30 billion are now clouded by the CMV failure and underwhelming sales of mResvia [21] - Current premium valuation and downward revisions to earnings estimates suggest caution for investors considering building positions in Moderna stock [22]

Industry Overview - The healthcare industry is characterized by continuous innovation in biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and digital health, leading to new treatments and care delivery models that can drive significant growth for leading companies in the coming decades [1] Company Analysis: Pfizer - Pfizer has faced a significant revenue decline due to reduced sales of its COVID-19 products, resulting in a corresponding drop in stock price [4] - The company is focusing on transitioning to a new growth phase through strategic acquisitions, cost-cutting initiatives, and expanding its product pipeline [4][5] - Non-COVID operational revenue is improving, driven by strong performance from products like Vyndaqel, Abrysvo, and Padcev [5] - Pfizer is implementing a cost-realignment program aimed at achieving net savings of $7.2 billion by 2027, with a major focus on oncology following the $43 billion acquisition of Seagen [6] - The current pipeline includes candidates for ulcerative colitis, hemophilia, and obesity, with promising results from Metsera's GLP-1 candidate showing a mean weight loss of up to 14.2% in a phase 2a trial [7] - In the first half of 2025, Pfizer reported net income of $5.9 billion on revenue of $28.4 billion, marking an 86% improvement in net income from the same period in 2024, with Q2 revenue growing by 10% [8] - Despite recent stock price challenges, Pfizer's dividend yield is close to 7%, and the company has a strong history of increasing its dividend [8]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, with a focus on the sales performance of its leading cancer drug, Keytruda, which contributed over 50% of the company's pharmaceutical sales in the first half of 2025 [1][9] - The company is also monitoring the performance of its non-oncology drugs, particularly the newly approved 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, Capvaxive, and the pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) drug, Winrevair, both of which showed strong sales in the first half of 2025 [2][9] Sales Performance - Keytruda remains a significant revenue driver, but its exclusivity is set to expire in 2028, prompting investors to pay attention to non-oncology products [2] - Capvaxive generated sales of $236 million, while Winrevair achieved $615 million in sales during the first half of 2025 [2] Growth Projections - The new drugs are expected to perform well in Q3 2025, supported by their strong initial uptake [3] - Merck's Animal Health business is also contributing to revenue growth, with an estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% over the next three years [3] Product Launches and Approvals - Merck's RSV antibody, Enflonsia, was approved in the U.S. in June 2025 and is under review in the EU, with plans for launch to protect infants during their first RSV season [4] - A fixed-dose combination for HIV treatment is also under review, with an FDA decision expected in April next year [4] Competitive Landscape - Winrevair faces competition in the PAH market from major players like United Therapeutics and Johnson & Johnson, which reported significant revenues from their PAH products [5][6] - Enflonsia will compete with AstraZeneca/Sanofi's RSV antibody, Beyfortus, and other vaccines approved for RSV prevention [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Merck's shares have declined by 12.3%, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [8] - The company's shares trade at a price/earnings ratio of 9.33, which is lower than the industry average of 15.56 and its 5-year mean of 12.63, indicating attractive valuation [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has slightly decreased from $8.94 to $8.92, while the estimate for 2026 has decreased from $9.55 to $9.44 over the past 60 days [11]

Core Insights - Pfizer is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, with a focus on oncology drug sales, which represent over 25% of total revenues [1] - The company has a strong presence in other therapeutic areas, including internal medicine, vaccines, inflammation & immunology, and rare diseases [2] Oncology Segment - Key oncology drugs include Ibrance, Xtandi, Lorbrena, Braftovi/Mektovi, and ADCs from the Seagen acquisition, such as Padcev [1] Primary Care Segment - Alliance revenues and direct sales from Eliquis are expected to rise due to increased global demand, though partially offset by lower pricing from the Inflation Reduction Act [3] - Sales of the Prevnar vaccine family are anticipated to increase, driven by strong adult uptake, despite lower pediatric sales [3] COVID-19 Related Products - Revenues from the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty and antiviral pill Paxlovid are likely to have increased, with most Paxlovid sales coming from commercial channels [4] Newer Products - Sales of the RSV vaccine Abrysvo are expected to be limited due to restricted recommendations for RSV vaccinations [5] - Strong demand for Nurtec ODT/Vydura is anticipated, although impacted by the IRA Medical Part D redesign and the 340B program [5] Specialty Care Segment - Sales of Vyndaqel are expected to remain strong due to continued demand growth, while sales of Xeljanz and Enbrel are likely to decline [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Investing in pharmaceutical companies is favorable, especially during economic downturns, due to their defensive nature and the increasing demand driven by an aging population [2] Group 1: Pfizer - Pfizer has secured a deal with the White House to avoid tariffs for three years by increasing local manufacturing and reducing medicine costs in the U.S. [5] - Despite recent struggles with revenue growth, Pfizer is well-positioned for recovery due to its extensive pipeline [6] - The acquisition of Metsera provides access to a promising mid-stage GLP-1 asset, MET097i, which may outperform existing weight loss medications [7] - Pfizer has a strong oncology pipeline and newer products like the RSV vaccine are expected to contribute to growth in the coming years [8] - The combination of the government deal, robust pipeline, and reasonable valuation makes Pfizer a compelling buy [9] Group 2: Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly demonstrates strong financial results and innovative capabilities, indicating a positive outlook for the future [9]