证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 软件开发 投资要点 ❑ 移动互联网红利下，构筑流量壁垒 美图公司(01357) 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 02 日 成长视角：受益 AI 时代新红利，再迎阶梯式跃迁 ——美图公司深度报告 移动互联网红利是公司第一轮结构性增长的核心驱动力，公司通过发布一系列移 动端爆款 App，快速构建自身流量壁垒，并通过在线广告业务变现，实现了第一 层阶梯的跨越（2018 年软件业务营收接近 10 亿元量级）。 ❑ AI 时代红利下，达成场景商业化闭环 AI 产业变革正在引领公司第二轮结构性增长，AI 能力对公司全场景产品的赋能 加强了用户使用体验，同时对于 B 端场景下高付费能力客户的挖掘进一步完成了 商业化闭环，助力公司对第二层阶梯的跨越（2022 年软件订阅业务营收突破 20 亿元量级）。 ❑ 全球化战略推进，撬动海外新增量 公司在海外市场的战略调整对公司具有重要意义，一方面国内美颜修图领域 MAU 总数以及竞争格局稳定，未来的用户增量主要靠靠海外市场贡献，国内业 务聚焦于付费用户转化；另一方面海外用户付费能力高于国内用户，进一步带动 海外营收增长的加速效应。我们认为随着公司在海 ...

雅诗兰黛集团中国区总裁兼首席执行官樊嘉煜表示："The Ordinary"研度公式"天猫旗舰店的上线，是雅 诗兰黛集团在中国市场推进AI技术布局过程中所迈出的重要一步。未来，我们将持续围绕AI展开技术 应用，助力集团切实成为以消费者为中心的全球顶尖高端美妆公司，并携手技术合作伙伴，持续推动美 妆行业的数字化创新。" AI是实现雅诗兰黛集团"重塑美妆新境"(Beauty Reimagined))战略愿景的重要驱动力。近段时间以来，集 团正依托80余年的消费者、市场及行业数据积淀，携手技术合作伙伴，开发AI工具，将这些数据价值 赋能于产品创新、营销销售全链路，打造更具个性化的消费体验，以期切实满足消费者需求。其中，例 如与微软联合开发的ConsumerIQ聊天机器人，通过整合市场调研与深度洞察，可快速解析文档、识别 趋势并提供战略建议；以及Adobe Creative Suite创意套件中的生成式人工智能工具Adobe Firefly，其可 显著提升创意团队效率并加速创意想法落地。 此次合作将重点运用AI技术优化消费者购物体验，通过智能肤质诊断、个性化产品推荐等功能，提升 功效护肤的精准度和效率。围绕消费者的高频 ...

Core Insights - Adobe's stock is currently trading 40% below its all-time highs as it approaches its Q2 FY25 earnings release, raising concerns about slowing growth and valuation levels in the context of the tech sector [1][7][20] Financial Performance - Adobe's revenue growth has slowed to an average of 11% between FY22 and FY24, following a period of 15% to 25% growth for seven consecutive years after transitioning to a subscription model [4] - The company is projected to grow its revenue by 9% in FY25 and 10% in FY26, reaching $25.63 billion, with adjusted earnings expected to increase by 11% and 13% respectively [16] Competitive Landscape - Investors are concerned about the rapid rise of artificial intelligence offerings that allow users to create high-quality content with minimal skills, potentially threatening Adobe's creative software suite [2][5][11] - Adobe has responded by integrating AI features across its portfolio, including the launch of its generative AI platform, Firefly, which has generated over 22 billion assets since its debut [12][15] Strategic Moves - Adobe's decision to scrap its planned acquisition of Figma due to regulatory challenges has raised concerns about its ability to diversify and deploy cash effectively [5] - The company has emphasized the commercial viability of its AI features, positioning them as safer alternatives compared to other generative AI services that may face legal challenges [15] Market Position - Despite the recent selloff, Adobe's stock is trading at a 75% discount to its all-time highs and 33% below its median valuation at 23.5X forward 12-month earnings, indicating potential value for long-term investors [20] - Adobe's stock has appreciated nearly 1,500% over the past 15 years, significantly outperforming the tech sector, although it has seen a 2% increase in the last five years compared to the tech sector's 110% rise [18]

Core Viewpoint - Despite market turmoil, stock prices remain flat in 2025, but long-term prospects for many companies appear bright [1] Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is a leading AI stock, providing GPUs essential for AI model training and operation [4] - Data center capital expenditures are projected to increase from $400 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2028, indicating significant growth potential for Nvidia [5] - The company reported a 69% revenue increase in Q1 2026, highlighting its strong performance despite challenges in its China business [5] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is a key player in the AI sector, serving as a chip foundry for high-tech companies [6] - Management anticipates a 45% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI-related revenue over the next five years, with overall revenue expected to grow at nearly 20% CAGR [7] - The stock is currently valued at around 21 times forward earnings, making it an attractive investment compared to the S&P 500's 22.1 times [8] Group 3: Alphabet - Alphabet's stock is trading at 18 times forward earnings, lower than the S&P 500 and its tech peers, due to concerns over AI disruption and potential government breakup [9][11] - The company is actively engaging in the AI space with AI-powered search and generative AI features, which may mitigate fears surrounding its stock [12] Group 4: Adobe - Adobe faces similar AI-related concerns as Alphabet, but its generative AI software, Firefly, integrates well with its existing products [13] - The company continues to see steady revenue growth, with the stock trading around 20 times forward earnings, presenting a good value opportunity [16] Group 5: Amazon - Amazon's profitability is primarily driven by Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accounted for 63% of total operating profits despite only representing 19% of revenue in Q1 [18][19] - Concerns about tariffs affecting its e-commerce business are overshadowed by the growth potential of AWS, which benefits from trends in AI and cloud migration [17][19]

编译｜冬梅、核子可乐 Stable Diffusion 模型缔造者们建立的初创公司 Black Forest Labs（黑暗森林实验室，简称 BFL）刚 刚发布了发布一款名为 FLUX.1 Kontext 的全新图像生成模型。此模型不仅能够生成和编辑照片，还 允许用户添加文本及其他图像以实现内容修改。 该公司在 X 上发文称："今天我们正式发布 FLUX.1 Kontext——一款生成流匹配模型，可用于图像生 成和编辑。与传统的文生图模型不同，Kontext 能够同时将文本和图像作为输入，从而实现真正基于 上下文的生成和编辑能力。" BFL 公司联合创始人兼 CEO Robin Rombach 表示："FLUX.1 Kontext 通过将图像生成和编辑统一在 一个流匹配架构中，代表了对传统编辑方法的根本性转变。通过简单的流匹配训练， 我们实现了跨 多轮编辑的顶尖字符一致性，同时在 1MP 分辨率下保持了 3~5 秒的交互式推理速度 。这实现了真 正的迭代式创意工作流程，而这在以前由于视觉漂移和延迟限制而无法实现。" 该公司还公布了全新的 BFL Playground，供用户在正式引入企业级应用流程之前对 BF ...

为进一步助力经济高质量发展、提振消费信心，南方都市报近日启动"高品质消费观察"系列专题，聚焦颜值经济、运 动户外、食品康养、智能消电、宠物经济、体验经济、兴趣消费、跨境出海、消费科技九大热门赛道，展开系列调 研、走访和报道。 同时，南方都市报将联合广东连锁经营协会等多个省市的连锁协会成立组委会，举办"2025高品质消费生态大会"，组 委会将从企业品质力、成长性、创新性、社会责任等方面综合评定"2025高品质消费品牌TOP100"。 在筛选入围品牌的过程中，我们发现人工智能在消费领域的创新应用案例已涵盖智能零售、智能客服、智能推荐、智 能物流等多个方面，"AI＋消费"深入供应链的多个环节，助力行业的转型升级。尤其是营销环节，在激活提振消费新 模式新场景，有效促进消费市场提质扩容方面，AI已成为主角。 618前哨战已经打响数日，各大电商平台在营销环节都开始让AI充当主角。其中，淘宝旗下阿里妈妈提出"AI驱动质赢 618"的主张，也就是从定价到宣传创意，再到模拟投放环境，让AI参与商家经营的全流程。 京东云同样宣布，618期间向POP商家开放五大免费AI营销产品，包括直播数字人、商家客服智能体、短视频生成、 京点点 ...