January 29, 2026 05:44 AM GMT Technology - Payments Agentic Payments: New Rules, Same Rails Agentic Commerce represents a ~$192bn GMV opportunity by 2030e, expanding the online payments TAM while making trust a key bottleneck. Differentiation shifts to identity, fraud detection and optimisation as complexity rises. Adyen, Mastercard and Visa the key volume beneficiaries, in our view. We think Agentic Commerce represents the next great shift in online shopping: a world where agents don't just help with disco ...

花旗指出，谷歌的AI生态系统持续扩展，核心产品Gemini的应用月活跃用户(MAUs)在去年12月录得按 月10%的增长。自11月推出Gemini 3及相关产品以来，市场份额稳步提升，带动谷歌全球搜索市场份额 增至90.8%，尽管美国搜索市场同期略有下滑。此外，谷歌持续将AI-O、AI-M和Gemini的成果整合到旗 下产品中，例如Gmail和Agentic Commerce。2025年第四季度，谷歌处理逾90万亿AC tokens，相信随着 商业化进程的推进，搜寻量增长动能将持续加速。 花旗发表研究报告指，苹果与谷歌达成多年人工智能合作协议，苹果智能平台Apple Intelligence(包括 Siri)及其基础模型将采用Google的AI技术，特别是其旗舰产品Gemini模型的强大能力、日益增长的计算 基础设施及硬件技术优势，突显了谷歌在核心AI领域的领先地位。 花旗认为，谷歌仍然是互联网领域首选之一，重申"买入"评级，目标价为350美元。 ...

Core Insights - Shopify is experiencing a dynamic period with significant developments in its offerings, particularly in the realm of Agentic Commerce, which represents a new potential channel for the company [2] Group 1: Innovations and Technologies - Shopify is at the forefront of technological advancements aimed at supporting its merchants, showcasing its leadership in the marketplace [2] - The company is developing new frameworks to facilitate Agentic Commerce providers, enhancing their ability to execute within this emerging space [2]

Summary of Shopify Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shopify - **Industry**: E-commerce and technology platform Key Points Holiday Trends - Shopify merchants achieved **$14.6 billion** in sales during Black Friday Cyber Monday weekend, representing a **27% increase** year-over-year and a **24% increase** on a constant currency basis [4][5] - Sales during this period have nearly doubled from **$7.5 billion** in 2022, indicating strong growth for the platform [4] GMV and Growth Drivers - Shopify's growth is attributed to its evolution beyond North American SMB e-commerce to include enterprise, international, in-store, and B2B segments [6] - Online business remains the largest segment, with growth rates of **1.5 to 4 times** faster than overall e-commerce rates in various markets [8] - International growth is particularly strong, with rates in the **high 30s to low 40s percent** [11] - The majority of growth is driven by merchants with an annual GMV of **$25 million and under**, although larger merchants are growing faster [10][21] Enterprise Strategy - Shopify has focused on building its enterprise capabilities over the past three years, including partnerships with system integrators and a dedicated enterprise sales team [13][14] - Recent enterprise wins include brands like **Estée Lauder** and **Canada Goose**, indicating success in attracting larger clients [14] - Monetization for enterprise customers often starts with components like **Shop Pay**, leading to a healthy payments attach rate [19] International Expansion - Shopify has invested significantly in international markets, adding **15 new countries** for payment services and expanding product offerings [26] - International GMV growth is balanced between new and existing merchants, with Europe being a key growth driver [25][26] Payments and Shop Pay - Payments penetration has reached **65%** as of Q3, with expectations for continued growth, particularly in international markets [28][30] - Shop Pay has seen adoption rates of **67%**, with international markets showing even faster growth [32] In-Store Business - The in-store point of sale (POS) business accounts for a low double-digit percentage of GMV and is a significant growth area [40] - Shopify's POS system is designed to integrate seamlessly with online operations, making it an attractive option for retailers looking to modernize [41][42] Future Revenue Drivers - Anticipated growth in 2026 and 2027 will be driven by international expansion, enterprise growth, and product offerings, with potential pricing adjustments contributing to revenue [43][46] - The Shop App is experiencing **140% year-over-year growth** in GMV, indicating strong consumer engagement [48] Agentic Commerce - Shopify is investing in Agentic Commerce, focusing on optimizing merchant visibility and sales through AI and LLMs [55][56] - The goal is to ensure merchants are discoverable across various platforms, enhancing their sales opportunities [57] Additional Insights - Shopify's growth strategy includes a mix of online and offline channels, with a focus on unifying customer experiences across platforms [9][41] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its diverse growth levers, including enterprise, international, and in-store offerings, to drive future success [11][21][46]

Summary of the Conference Call on Agentic Commerce Industry Overview - The report discusses the emerging trend of **Agentic Commerce** within the **e-commerce** industry, highlighting its potential to revolutionize online shopping through personalized digital shopping agents [8][9][12]. Key Insights - **Market Impact**: Agentic Commerce could add approximately **$115 billion** (around **6%**) to the e-commerce forecast by **2030**, significantly altering the e-commerce funnel and affecting retailers and digital advertising platforms [9][12]. - **Investment in Technology**: Cumulative data center capital expenditures from leading players are expected to reach about **$1.7 trillion** from **2025 to 2027**, driving advancements in machine learning and GenAI products [9]. - **Consumer Experience**: The evolution of the e-commerce funnel will lead to more conversational, personalized, and interactive shopping experiences, with agents handling tasks like price comparisons and automated purchases [11][12]. Retailer Positioning - **Framework for Analysis**: A "5 I's" framework (Inventory, Infrastructure, Innovation, Incrementality, Income Statement) is proposed to evaluate retailers' positions in the context of Agentic Commerce [29][30]. - **Best Positioned Companies**: Companies like **Amazon (AMZN)**, **eBay (EBAY)**, and **Revolve (RVLV)** are identified as well-positioned due to their strong fulfillment capabilities and customer data access [32][34]. - **Risks for Retailers**: Retailers relying heavily on retail media for earnings may face disruptions as third-party agents could displace direct traffic, impacting income statements [31][34]. Digital Advertising Implications - **Value Shift**: Leading performance-based platforms like **META** and **YouTube** are expected to gain value as brands seek targeted advertising solutions, while traditional retail media may be at risk [45][47]. - **Search Transition**: The search advertising model, particularly for **Alphabet (GOOGL)**, may need to adapt as retailers develop first-party agents, potentially reducing reliance on Google Search [52][53]. Incrementality and Profitability - **Breakeven Analysis**: Retailers need approximately **50%** of agentic transactions to be incremental for EBIT breakeven at a **5%** fee, highlighting the importance of maintaining high-margin direct traffic [41][99]. - **Potential Cannibalization**: There is a risk that agentic commerce could cannibalize existing sales, similar to past transitions in online travel and food delivery [100]. Future Projections - **Growth Estimates**: Agentic commerce is projected to contribute more than **100 basis points** to annual e-commerce growth by **2030** in base and bull cases, with agentic spending reaching **10% to 20%** of total e-commerce [107][110]. - **User Adoption**: It is estimated that by **2030**, around **50%** of e-commerce shoppers will utilize agents, with agentic commerce making up **25%** of their e-commerce spending [113][115]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes that while Agentic Commerce presents significant opportunities for enhancing consumer utility and driving e-commerce growth, it also introduces risks that retailers and digital ad platforms must navigate carefully to maintain profitability and market share [34][40][99].

Core Insights - Airwallex has achieved a significant milestone with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassing $1 billion, demonstrating rapid growth from $500 million to $1 billion in just one year, compared to nine years for the first $500 million [1] - The company has redefined the global financial system, serving over 150,000 businesses with a total annual transaction volume exceeding $223 billion, and has a valuation of $6.2 billion [1][9] - Lucy Liu, the co-founder and president, has played a pivotal role in the company's success, showcasing the potential of female leadership in the fintech industry [1][17] Company Overview - Airwallex was founded in 2015 with an initial investment of $1 million from Lucy Liu and her university peers, aiming to innovate traditional banking and cross-border transactions [3][4] - The founding team includes Jack Zhang as CEO, Xijing Dai as CTO, and Max Li as the design lead, with clear roles established from the outset [4] - The company faced significant challenges in its early years, including a near bankruptcy situation in 2017, which was a turning point leading to crucial investments from Tencent and other major firms [10][11] Growth and Financial Performance - Airwallex's ARR has grown by 90% year-over-year, with a projected doubling of revenue to $2 billion in the next 12 months [8][13] - The company completed a $300 million Series F funding round in May 2023, further solidifying its financial position and growth trajectory [9] - The transaction volume increased dramatically, with a 127% year-over-year growth in annual transaction volume [13] Innovation and Product Development - Airwallex has expanded its product offerings, including multi-currency wallets and virtual credit cards, and has developed integrated payment solutions for platform clients [12][14] - The company is actively pursuing AI-driven innovations, with plans to launch new products aimed at enhancing financial operations for businesses [18][19] - Airwallex's recent acquisition of OpenPay signifies its commitment to providing comprehensive financial solutions and competing with established players like Stripe [14] Leadership and Culture - Lucy Liu emphasizes the importance of diversity in leadership, with 40% of the company's China management being female and one-third of global executives being women [16] - The company fosters a culture of resilience and adaptability, with Liu advocating for continuous learning and innovation in response to market changes [15][19] - Liu's journey reflects the challenges and triumphs of female entrepreneurs in a predominantly male-dominated industry, highlighting the advantages women bring to leadership roles [17]

Core Insights - Airwallex has achieved an annual recurring revenue (ARR) milestone of over $1 billion, reaching this figure in just one year after previously taking nine years to reach the first $500 million [4][11] - The company was founded by Lucy Liu and her peers in 2015 with an initial investment of $1 million, and it has since grown to serve over 150,000 businesses globally, with a transaction volume exceeding $223 billion [4][11] - Airwallex's valuation has reached $6.2 billion following a $300 million Series F funding round, marking a significant return on Liu's initial investment [13] Company Growth and Milestones - Airwallex's journey from inception to becoming a unicorn involved overcoming significant challenges, including a near bankruptcy situation in 2017 when the company had only two months of runway left [15][16] - The company pivoted its business model to build a global financial operating system, which has led to a 90% year-over-year growth in ARR and a 127% increase in annual transaction volume [18] - The company has expanded its product offerings, including multi-currency wallets and virtual credit cards, which contributed to a 100-fold increase in monthly transaction volume between early 2018 and late 2019 [17] Leadership and Innovation - Lucy Liu, as the only female founder in a predominantly male fintech industry, has faced skepticism but has proven her capabilities by taking on various roles within the company [10][21] - The company emphasizes product innovation and customer value creation, with plans to leverage AI for future growth, including new financial solutions for CFOs and developers [22][23] - Airwallex has established a diverse corporate culture, with approximately 40% of its Chinese management being female and one-third of its global executives being women [21]