证券研究报告 | 2025年08月21日 百度集团-SW（09888.HK）25Q2 财报点评 优于大市 广告业务持续承压，加快 AI 改造搜索节奏 总览：总收入同比-4%，经调整归母净利润 48 亿元，调整后归母净利润率同 比-7pcts。2025Q2，百度集团实现总收入 327 亿元，同比-4%。百度核心收 入 263 亿元，同比-2%，爱奇艺收入 66 亿元，同比-11%。2025Q2，百度集团 实现经调整归母净利润 48 亿元，同比-35%。经调整归母净利润率 15%。其中， 百度核心实现经调整归母净利润 44 亿元、同比-37%，经调整归母净利润率 17%。 百度核心广告收入下滑 15%，7 月移动端搜索结果页 64%是由生成式 AI 来实 现的（4 月为 35%）。百度核心在线营销收入为 162 亿元，同比下滑 15%。 其中托管页收入占比 50%，体现广告业务结构持续优化。 AI 广告二季度启动小规模商业化测试，代理（Agents）驱动广告转化效率 提升。代理为广告主创造的收入环比+50%，占核心在线营销收入 13%（Q1 为 9%），计划逐步从 CPC（按点击付费）向 CPS（按销售付费）转型 ...

Core Insights - Tesla's robotaxi service in Austin has begun, with initial reports indicating mixed experiences from passengers, including abrupt braking and confusion during rides [1][2] - The company claims that its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is statistically safer than human drivers, with a reported 10 times safety improvement [4] - Tesla aims to expand its robotaxi service to cover half of the U.S. population by the end of 2025, pending regulatory approvals [5][10] Company Developments - Tesla's robotaxi service logged over 7,000 miles without major safety incidents shortly after launch [2][10] - The FSD Version 12 has led to a 45% increase in subscription adoption, with expectations for further gains from Version 14 [4][10] - New vehicles are being designed for autonomous deliveries directly to customers by the end of the year in select regions [5] Competitive Landscape - Alphabet's Waymo is a significant competitor, operating fully driverless services in multiple cities and delivering around 250,000 paid rides weekly [7] - Baidu's Apollo Go program is also a major player, running fully driverless services across 16 cities globally and completing over 14 million rides [8] Market Outlook - Tesla's robotaxi initiative is still in the early stages, with tangible progress but trailing behind leaders like Waymo and Baidu [9] - The company's future in this sector hinges on overcoming regulatory challenges and delivering on its ambitious promises [9]

Summary of Baidu and IQIYI Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Companies Involved**: Baidu Inc. (BIDU.O) and iQIYI Inc. (IQ.O) - **Industry**: Internet and Other Services in Asia Pacific Key Points and Arguments Baidu's Advertising Performance - Core advertising revenue is expected to decline by **23% YoY** in Q3, worsening from a **15% decline in Q2** [1][2] - AI-related search results have increased from **50% in June to 64% in July**, but monetization remains limited [2] - Estimated **16% of advertising revenue** in Q2 came from AI, with **13% from AI agents** and **3% from digital humans** [2] - Cautious outlook for advertising recovery, with expectations of a **15% decline in Q4** [2] Baidu's Cloud Business - Cloud revenue reached **Rmb 6.5 billion**, growing **27% YoY** in Q2 [3] - Enterprise cloud growth is outpacing personal cloud, with subscription revenue growing over **50% YoY** [3] - Expected cloud growth of **30% YoY** in Q3, with margins maintained in the teens [3] Robotaxi Developments - Apollo Go operates in **16 cities globally** and has formed partnerships with Uber and Lyft [4] - Focus on expanding global operations with over **1,000 fleets** and **2.2 million rides in Q2** [4] - Limited financial contribution expected in the near term [4] Margin Pressures - Margins are under pressure due to declining ad revenue and increased investments in AI and robotaxis [5] - Operating profit for Q2 is expected to be **Rmb 2.2 billion**, down **66% YoY**, with an operating margin of **9.0%**, a decrease of **16.1 percentage points** [5] iQIYI's Financial Outlook - Price target raised from **US$1.7 to US$2.1**, maintaining an equal weight rating [6] - Despite recent financial struggles, potential for revenue growth exists due to regulatory relief [6] - Risks include competition in the long video and short drama segments [6] Baidu's Price Target and Earnings Estimates - Price target maintained at **US$100**, with a cautious outlook on core ads and margin pressures [7] - Core earnings estimates for 2025 lowered by **12%** [7] - Current price target implies an **11x P/E** for 2026, compared to **19-20x** for Tencent and NTES [7] Financial Performance Highlights - Baidu's total revenue fell **4% YoY**, with core revenue declining **2% YoY** [17] - Core marketing revenue dropped **15%**, while non-marketing revenue rose **34% YoY** [17] - iQIYI's revenue fell **11%** to **Rmb 6.6 billion**, missing estimates [17] Valuation Insights - Baidu's valuation derived from a sum-of-the-parts approach, with a **12% discount rate** and **3% terminal growth rate** [25] - iQIYI's valuation reflects weaker earnings growth visibility compared to peers [27] Additional Important Information - Baidu returned **US$232 million** in Q2 under its **US$5 billion share repurchase program** [17] - iQIYI's operating profit declined **88% YoY**, missing consensus estimates [17] - Baidu's gross margin decreased to **43.9%**, down **7.8 percentage points** YoY [17] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities faced by Baidu and iQIYI in the current market landscape.

Financial Performance - Baidu reported total revenue of 32.7 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year decline of 4% [1] - Net profit attributable to Baidu was 7.3 billion yuan, compared to 5.5 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to Baidu was 4.8 billion yuan, down from 7.4 billion yuan year-on-year [1] AI Model Strategy - The rapid iteration of AI models has intensified industry competition, with new models being released almost weekly [2] - Baidu's "Ernie" model is positioned to focus on application-driven innovation, concentrating on strategic areas that add value to the company [3] - The company aims to enhance user experience through AI-driven search, transitioning from traditional search results to multi-modal AI-generated content [5][6] AI Cloud Business - Baidu's AI cloud revenue grew by 27% year-on-year, reaching 6.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025 [8] - Subscription revenue constitutes over half of the total revenue in the enterprise cloud segment, with strong growth driven by AI infrastructure subscriptions [9] - The company is focusing on improving revenue stability by reducing the proportion of project-based income [9] AI Search Functionality - Baidu is transitioning to AI search that replaces traditional links with multi-modal AI-generated results, enhancing user experience [5][6] - The company is observing higher user engagement and retention rates with the new AI search features [5] - Future developments will focus on personalizing search results based on user preferences and needs [7] Autonomous Driving - Baidu's Apollo Go has established a global leadership position in autonomous driving, with a focus on scaling operations [16] - The Apollo RT6 is designed specifically for Level 4 autonomous driving, offering cost efficiency and safety [17] - Partnerships with global ride-hailing platforms like Uber and Lyft are expected to accelerate Baidu's international expansion [18]

Summary of Baidu's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baidu - **Quarter**: Q2 2025 - **Total Revenue**: 227 billion RMB, a decrease of 4% year-over-year [2][17] Key Financial Highlights - **Non-Online Marketing Revenue**: 100 billion RMB, an increase of 34% year-over-year, driven by AI cloud business [2][3] - **AI Cloud Revenue**: 65 billion RMB, a growth of 27% year-over-year [2][12] - **Operating Costs**: 184 billion RMB, an increase of 12% year-over-year [17] - **Net Income**: 73 billion RMB, with diluted earnings per share of 20.35 RMB [18][17] - **Free Cash Flow**: Negative 4.7 billion RMB, primarily due to increased investments in AI [19] AI Business Developments - **AI Transformation**: 64% of mobile search result pages utilized AI-generated content by July 2025, with over 90% of monthly active users experiencing AI transformation [2][10] - **AIGC Video Generation**: Millions of AIGC videos generated daily, with rapid growth in video distribution within Baidu applications [2][10] - **Digital Human Technology**: Significant advancements in realism and capabilities, generating tens of millions in GMV through live commerce [4][5][16] Apollo Autonomous Driving Progress - **Service Volume**: Over 2.2 million fully autonomous rides provided in Q2 2025, a 148% increase year-over-year [7][14] - **Global Expansion**: Partnerships with Uber and Lift to accelerate market penetration, covering 16 cities with over 200 million kilometers driven [7][14] AI Cloud Business Achievements - **Core Competitive Advantage**: Unique four-layer AI architecture driving healthy growth in AI cloud business [6][12] - **Subscription Revenue**: Over half of AI cloud revenue derived from subscription services, showing stable growth [22] Strategic Partnerships - **Collaborations**: Strategic partnerships established with leading lifestyle platforms and top gaming companies, enhancing AI cloud recognition [13] Search Functionality Enhancements - **Task Completion**: Expansion of search capabilities from providing answers to completing tasks, facilitating end-to-end service connections [11][23] Cost Optimization and Profitability Outlook - **Cost Management**: Focus on improving internal efficiency and resource coordination to protect profit margins amid advertising revenue challenges [26][27] - **Future Profitability**: Gradual improvement in profit margins expected as core advertising business stabilizes and non-advertising revenue increases [27] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **AI Model Market**: Rapid iteration of AI models, with a focus on application-oriented innovation to meet diverse market needs [20][21] - **Sustainable AI Cloud Demand**: Growing demand for AI-driven cloud solutions across various industries, with a focus on cost-effective, high-performance solutions [25] Conclusion - Baidu's Q2 2025 performance reflects a strategic pivot towards AI and cloud services, with significant growth in non-online marketing revenue and advancements in autonomous driving technology. The company is focused on optimizing costs and enhancing profitability while navigating a competitive landscape in AI and cloud services.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the company was RMB22.7 billion, a decrease of 4% year over year [32] - Revenue from Baidu Core was RMB26.3 billion, down 2% year over year [32] - Baidu Core's online marketing revenue decreased by 15% year over year to RMB16.2 billion [33] - Non-online marketing revenue for Baidu Core increased by 34% year over year, reaching RMB10 billion [33] - AI cloud revenue grew 27% year over year to RMB6.5 billion [21][33] - Operating income was RMB3.3 billion, with an operating margin of 13% [35] - Net income attributed to Baidu was RMB7.3 billion, with a diluted earnings per ADS of RMB20.35 [37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AI cloud business showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 27% year over year [21][33] - Digital human technology revenue increased by 55% quarter over quarter, contributing 3% of Baidu Core's online marketing revenue [30] - Revenue generated by agents for advertisers grew 50% year over year, contributing 13% of Baidu Core's online marketing revenue [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Baidu App's monthly active users reached 735 million, representing a 5% year over year growth [20] - Daily average time spent per user in Q2 increased by 4% year over year [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on AI transformation, particularly in Baidu Search, to enhance user experience and drive long-term value [19][28] - The strategy includes a shift from traditional search results to AI-generated, multimodal content [55] - The company is committed to investing in AI and has made substantial investments in AI transformation, particularly in search [81] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged near-term headwinds in advertising revenue but expressed confidence in the long-term potential of AI search monetization [81] - The company is optimistic about the growth of its AI cloud services, driven by increasing demand across various sectors [76] - Management indicated that while revenue and margins may face pressure in the near term, there is potential for recovery and improvement in profitability over time [83] Other Important Information - The company has established partnerships with Uber and Lyft to expand its autonomous driving services globally [14][92] - Apollo Go provided over 2.2 million fully driverless rides in Q2, marking a 148% year-over-year increase [13][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view the current landscape of AI models and the positioning of Ernie? - Management noted that the pace of model iteration is faster than ever, with a diverse landscape where different models excel at various tasks [44][45] - Ernie is positioned as an application-driven model focused on generating multimodal search results and enhancing user engagement [46][47] Question: What updates can be shared regarding AI search monetization testing? - Management indicated that AI search transformation is progressing rapidly, with higher user engagement and retention metrics [54][55] - The end game for AI search involves delivering intelligent, personalized responses and connecting users with real-world services [58] Question: Can management provide a breakdown of AI cloud revenue and margin profile? - AI cloud revenue grew 27% year over year, with subscription-based revenue accounting for more than half of the total [62] - The company aims to reduce project-based revenue for greater stability and improve profitability over the long term [63] Question: What are the plans for cost optimization and margin trends? - Management is focused on internal efficiency gains while continuing to invest in AI [81] - There is an expectation for revenue and margins to remain under pressure in the near term, but potential for recovery exists as the core advertising business stabilizes [83] Question: How does the company assess its long-term differentiation in the autonomous driving landscape? - Management emphasized the company's leadership in both left-hand and right-hand drive markets, with a focus on operational excellence and cost efficiency [86][90] - Partnerships with global mobility platforms are seen as a strategy to accelerate market entry and scale operations [92]

Core Insights - Lyft is partnering with Baidu to introduce robotaxis in Europe, starting with the UK and Germany in 2026, pending regulatory approvals [1][2] - The partnership aims to leverage Baidu's autonomous driving technology and Lyft's operational expertise to enhance mobility solutions for European users [2] - Baidu's Apollo Go service, launched in 2020, currently operates in 11 Chinese cities and plans to expand to Dubai and Abu Dhabi by 2026 [2] Company Developments - Lyft announced the acquisition of Freenow, a ride-hailing service in nine European countries, to strengthen its presence in the European market [7] - The collaboration with Baidu is part of Lyft's strategy to integrate advanced technology into its services, focusing on safety, reliability, and privacy for users [2] Industry Context - The robotaxi market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Tesla and Waymo also vying for dominance in the US [8] - Analysts have expressed skepticism about the profitability timeline for driverless taxis, suggesting that the market may be overestimated [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. and China are showing signs of improved trade relations, with both sides agreeing to negotiate for mutual benefit, reminiscent of the Oasis reunion [2][3] - Major stock indices in the U.S. and Europe, including the German DAX and the U.K.'s FTSE 100, are reaching new highs, while the Shanghai Composite Index is also showing positive movement, closing above 3,500 for the first time since 2021 [3] Group 2: Company Insights - JD.com - JD.com is positioning itself as the "Amazon of China," launching new business segments like JD Food Delivery to enhance revenue streams and improve last-mile delivery efficiency [6][8] - JD.com reported Q1 earnings of RMB 301.1 billion (approximately $41.5 billion), a 15.8% year-over-year increase, with diluted EPS rising to RMB 3.59 ($0.50) from RMB 2.25 [10] - The New Businesses segment of JD.com is growing faster than the JD Retail segment, with an 18.1% increase compared to 16.3%, indicating rising demand for these services [10] Group 3: Company Insights - Baidu - Baidu aims to be the "Google of China," with its primary revenue driver being search, while also expanding into AI through ventures like AI Cloud and Apollo Go [12] - The AI Cloud segment reported a 42% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, significantly outpacing the 7% growth in Baidu Core [13] - Apollo Go has provided over 1.4 million rides in Q1, marking a 75% year-over-year increase, and has recently obtained a testing license for operations in Hong Kong [13]

Group 1: Core Insights - Baidu's stock surged nearly 9% following a collaboration with Uber to introduce autonomous vehicles on Uber's platform outside of China and the U.S. [2] - The partnership marks a significant step in Baidu's efforts to internationalize its autonomous driving initiatives, with initial launches expected in Asia and the Middle East by the end of 2025 [3] - Baidu's Apollo Go division reported over 1.4 million rides in Q1 2025, a 75% increase year-over-year, and operates over 1,000 fully driverless vehicles across 15 cities [4] Group 2: Market Potential - Uber's human-driven rides generated a $375 billion annual revenue pool, indicating a substantial opportunity for the autonomous sector, which could potentially double the existing ride-hailing market to a $750 billion opportunity [4] - The demand for autonomous ride-hailing is expected to increase as users experience the benefits, with Robotaxis like Waymo showing higher customer retention and fewer accidents [4] Group 3: Challenges and Valuation - Baidu's stock has faced challenges due to a slower-than-expected post-Covid economic recovery in China, leading to reduced advertising revenue in its core search business [5] - The emergence of generative AI has created uncertainty for traditional search models, with competition from other Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent [5] - Baidu is currently valued at around $90 per share, trading at approximately 10x projected 2025 earnings, significantly lower than its nearly 40x multiple during the pandemic, with nearly $22 billion in net cash [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU) is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of $96.00, indicating an upside potential of 11.8% from the current price of $85.87 [10][18][22]. Core Insights - Baidu's partnership with Uber marks a significant step in the global expansion of its Apollo Go autonomous vehicle service, with initial rollouts planned for Asia and the Middle East later this year [1][3]. - The Apollo Go service currently operates in 15 cities, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with a fleet of 1,000 fully driverless cars and over 11 million completed rides [2][3]. - The valuation of Baidu's Robotaxi business is estimated at $3.9 billion, with expectations for rapid fleet expansion over the next 1-2 years as commercial operations increase [5][10]. Summary by Sections Global Expansion - Baidu is committed to expanding its autonomous vehicle service internationally, with recent expansions into Hong Kong, Singapore, and the Middle East, and plans to enter Europe by the end of the year [4][3]. - The user experience, safety, and adaptability of Robotaxi services to different regulatory environments are critical factors for successful overseas expansion [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the Apollo Self-Driving segment show significant growth, with expected gross transaction values increasing from RMB 161 million in 2024 to RMB 3.080 billion by 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 350% in 2024 [9]. - The number of trips is projected to rise from 6.6 million in 2024 to 136.9 million by 2027, with the fleet size expected to grow from 1,000 vehicles to 15,000 during the same period [9]. Valuation Metrics - The valuation analysis indicates a strong upside risk if Baidu successfully accelerates its global market expansion, with a focus on improving unit economics in favorable pricing areas [5][10]. - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation reflects a significant contribution from the Robotaxi segment, which is projected to enhance Baidu's overall market valuation [10].