证券研究报告 | 2025 年 09 月 25 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|风险平衡式降息落地——政策与大类资产配置周观察》 美联储 9 个月后重启降息。这是美联储自 2024 年 12 月以来的首次降息。 本次美联储对经济前景的表述较 7 月会议有一定变化。本次声明中美联储 删除了"尽管净出口的波动继续影响数据"的表述。美联储对就业市场的 表述较上次会议悲观。更新版点阵图显示，美联储内部分歧依然较大。我 们认为由于就业压力逐步增大且通胀反弹弱于预期，目前美联储决策函数 或暂时向就业倾斜，今年后续两次 FOMC 会议大概率每次降息 25bp。1、 权益：A 股方面，9 月第三周三大指数基本维持平稳，其中中证 100 和创 业板指数单周分别涨 1.08%和 2.34%，但上证综指回落 1.3%。万得微盘股 指数 9 月第三周涨 1.8%。9 月第三周南向资金净流入 337.26 亿元。2、固 收：央行上周整体净投放资金 11923 亿元（含国库现金）。9 月第三周流 动性略显紧张，DR007 一度突破至 1.55%以上，9 月 18 日最高上探至 1.56% 附近。3、大宗商品：9 月第二周 ...

Group 1 - Apple has formed an internal team named "Answers, Knowledge and Information" (AKI) to develop a knowledge engine similar to ChatGPT, aimed at enhancing the response experience of Siri, Spotlight, and Safari [1] - CEO Tim Cook announced a significant increase in AI-related investments and an openness to acquisitions, indicating Apple's determination to catch up in the AI field [1] - Apple has released over 20 AppleIntelligence features and is making good progress on personalized Siri, with a planned release in 2026 [1] Group 2 - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman hinted at the upcoming release of GPT-5, which is expected to include new models, products, and features [1] - Tom's Guide forecasts significant improvements in GPT-5's reasoning capabilities, multimodal abilities, and longer memory windows, with OpenAI's revenue expected to reach $12 billion this year [2] - Guosen Securities believes that the current AI policy support is strong, and the ongoing penetration and expansion of AI applications will have a long-lasting impact [2]

Market Strategy - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rally led by technology stocks, with a focus on dividend assets for potential catch-up opportunities [2][3] - AI applications are accelerating, supported by policy initiatives, which has boosted market sentiment [4][5] - The Hang Seng Index is approaching 23,000 points, indicating a significant recovery in valuations, particularly in the tech sector [4][5] AI Application and Investment Opportunities - The AI narrative is deepening within industries, with major companies like Alibaba and Apple collaborating to enhance AI applications [4][6] - The report suggests a tactical shift towards dividend assets as the market begins to refocus on fundamental factors after a period of rapid gains [4][5] - There is a notable valuation gap between growth sectors, particularly tech, and dividend-paying sectors, which may present investment opportunities [4][5] AI Industry Chain Investment Layout - Investors are advised to focus on both the foundational and application layers of the AI industry chain, as demand for computing power is expected to drive infrastructure investments [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling traffic entry points in the AI era, which will enhance market power for leading companies [9][10] Company Capital Expenditure Trends - Major internet companies in China are expected to significantly increase their capital expenditures in 2025, with Alibaba projected to spend 539 billion RMB and Tencent 425 billion RMB [11] - The report notes a recovery in capital expenditures following a period of contraction, driven by the rapid evolution of AI technologies [11][12] Market Performance Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index leading global indices [26][27] - The report indicates that the valuation recovery of the Hang Seng Index is nearing levels seen during previous market rallies, with risk premiums returning to historical averages [26][27] - Southbound capital flows continue to support the market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, while financial and real estate sectors have seen net outflows [75]