Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Semiconductors - **Focus**: Semiconductor foundry market, particularly SMIC and Hua Hong Key Points Demand and Growth Projections - **AI GPU Demand**: The proliferation of AI applications in China, supported by government policies, is expected to significantly boost domestic leading-edge foundry demand over the next two years [1][2] - **Revenue Forecasts**: Updated revenue forecasts for China AI GPU are Rmb113 billion for 2026 and Rmb180 billion for 2027, reflecting a 62% CAGR from 2024 to 2027 [2][20] Supply Dynamics - **SMIC's Expansion**: SMIC is expanding its leading-edge fab capacity, which is anticipated to alleviate equipment bottlenecks. The forecast includes a total capacity of 22kwpm for 7nm and under by 2025, increasing to 42kwpm by 2026 [1][10] - **Local Supply**: Local suppliers like Naura and AMEC are gradually replacing previously bottlenecked tools, enhancing China's ability to produce AI GPU chips [1][10] Competitive Landscape - **Mature Node Demand**: Demand for mature nodes remains weak, with oversupply in capacity. However, there is still demand from smartphone SoCs and autonomous driving semiconductors that could offset potential GPU demand weaknesses [3] - **Hua Hong's Position**: Despite raising wafer prices, Hua Hong's profitability appears weaker compared to SMIC and UMC, with an EBITDA margin of 30% in Q2 2025 compared to SMIC's 47% and UMC's 41% [3][9] Stock Recommendations - **SMIC**: Upgraded to Overweight (OW) with a price target of HK$80, reflecting strong domestic AI demand and improved gross margins [4][8] - **Hua Hong**: Downgraded to Underweight (UW) due to concerns over the sustainability of its mature node business and inventory build-up [4][9] Strategic Insights - **Self-Sufficiency in Semiconductors**: China's semiconductor self-sufficiency ratio is projected to rise to 30% by 2027, driven by advancements in local production capabilities and government support [52][60] - **AI Localization**: SMIC is positioned to benefit from strong domestic AI localization demand, supported by government initiatives and the need for advanced node manufacturing [89] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Potential risks include the possibility of local CSPs purchasing more AI chips from foreign vendors, which could impact SMIC's utilization rates and market share [94] - **Performance Variability**: The performance of local AI chips, particularly from Huawei, may face challenges compared to global competitors like NVIDIA [36][90] Additional Insights - **Huawei's Developments**: Huawei is advancing its AI chip capabilities with new product launches and improvements in interconnect bandwidth, which may enhance its competitive position in the market [35][37][38] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the semiconductor industry in Greater China, focusing on demand forecasts, supply dynamics, competitive positioning, and strategic recommendations for key players like SMIC and Hua Hong.

而黄金这事儿，2025年上半年，黄金进口总量超过900吨。单看月份，4月净进口112吨，7月89吨，8月40.892吨，主要通过香港渠道进来，从瑞士出口的部 分今年激增254%。为什么这么大规模运回黄金？很简单，防范全球金融动荡。黄金是避险资产，一旦美国债务出问题，以美元为核心的体系晃荡起来，黄 金就能稳住阵脚。中国人民银行已经在扩大黄金储备，到二季度末达到2298.53吨的历史高位。中央银行还计划放宽进口限制，用"多用途许可"简化流程。 这不光是经济准备，还体现了战略眼光。比起囤美债，黄金更可靠。美国那边6万亿美元债券到期在即，如果找不到买家，特朗普政府拿不出钱来，全球经 济就得跟着遭殃。 东盟协议这块，是中国贸易策略的亮点。5月21日，中国和东盟10国完成中国-东盟自贸区3.0版谈判，9月又推动正式签署。协议新增九个章节，涵盖数字经 济、绿色经济、供应链互联互通等领域。为什么急着升级？因为美国关税咬得紧，中国需要更强的区域通道。 中美贸易这事儿，最近闹得沸沸扬扬的，感觉像回到了几年前那场拉锯战。特朗普上台后没多久，就开始对华政策加码，各种关税措施层出不穷。中国这边 也没闲着，一方面加强黄金储备，另一方面加 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report highlights China's ambition to become a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) technology, driven by a robust ecosystem of talent, innovation, data, and infrastructure [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of applying AI to the "real economy" and commercializing AI products to enhance productivity in traditional industries [1][2] - China is focusing on market-driven AI applications, particularly in sectors like autonomous driving, smart manufacturing, and digital customer service, contrasting with the U.S. focus on broader consumer applications [1][2] Infrastructure Sector - China's AI GPU self-sufficiency is projected to increase from 34% in 2024 to 82% by 2027, with companies like Huawei and Cambricon leading innovations in chip development [5] - Lenovo's business segments are expected to benefit from the AI revolution, with a 60% year-on-year growth in its ISG segment for Q4 2024 [6] Data Center Sector - The data center industry is anticipated to see a significant increase in new bookings, growing from 2.1 GW in 2024 to 3.7 GW annually from 2025 to 2027, representing a 76% increase [8] - The rental pricing in China's data center sector has stabilized at lower levels, with improving return rates due to lower bank financing costs and faster client onboarding [8] Platform Sector - The rapid development of AI applications is expected to accelerate growth in China's IaaS/PaaS market, benefiting cloud service providers like Alibaba and Tencent [9] - Tencent's cloud business is projected to accelerate growth starting Q2 2025, as it reallocates resources to external cloud clients [9] Application Sector - In the 2C domain, AI applications are rapidly evolving, with platforms like WeChat leveraging user data to enhance user experience and drive profitability [11] - The 2B application speed is expected to surpass previous public cloud cycles, with a subscription model becoming prevalent for enterprise AI applications [11] Automotive and Robotics - The penetration rate of L2+ autonomous driving in China is expected to reach 25% by 2025, benefiting manufacturers like BYD and Geely [12] - By 2030, China's humanoid robot inventory is projected to reach 252,000 units, with significant growth anticipated in both commercial and household humanoid robots by 2050 [12] Energy and Quantum Computing - AI-driven data centers are expected to account for 10% of China's total electricity demand by 2035, with green energy initiatives gaining traction [14] - China's advancements in quantum computing, exemplified by the "Zuchongzhi 3" prototype, are set to provide new computational capabilities that will benefit AI and other industries [14] Conclusion - Despite U.S. chip restrictions, China's AI computing capabilities are advancing, with domestic semiconductor companies innovating rapidly to close the performance gap with U.S. counterparts [15]