Group 1 - The strong U.S. employment data has diminished market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the dollar index and a decline in spot gold prices [1][2] - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February [1][2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July is now considered nearly zero, with a 75% probability for a cut in September, indicating a resilient labor market [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors will support gold prices in the long term, despite a decrease in rate cut expectations [3] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves due to rising dollar credit risks and strategic asset allocation needs [3] - The performance of gold assets remains strong during both overheating and recessionary economic cycles, making gold ETFs a viable investment option [3][5] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) experienced a decline of 0.8% on July 4, with a trading volume of 239 million yuan, but has seen a 4.08% increase over the past month [5] - The net inflow of funds into the gold ETF over the last five days was 447 million yuan, indicating continued investor interest [5]

| 774.70 | | --- | | +4.00 +0.52% | | 最 高 775.90 最 低 772.80 成交额 17.2亿 | 本周，金价有所回升，尽管周四伦敦金现货价格微跌，但结束了上周大幅走弱态势，收复3300美元/盎司失地，国内AU9999也涨0.52%到774元/克上方， 整体处于震荡向上区间。 根据特朗普政府规划，若"大而美"法案最终立法将制造至少2.8万亿美元的财政赤字，可能会成为金价价值中枢的长期刚性支撑。 二是非农数据。受美国独立纪念日假期影响，美国6月非农就业报告提前于今晚（7月3日，周四）公布，若数据不佳有望引发降息预期升温，利好金价。 要知道，昨天公布的美国ADP就业人数表现不及预期，联储7月降息预期升温，也带动了金价偏强运行。 为什么金价震荡不停？ 今年上半年大部分时间，地缘局势动荡，关税问题也导致避险需求大幅升温，导致金价迅速走高，AU9999上半年最大涨幅超30%。 但随着地缘局势与关税问题有所缓和，避险需求降温，因此带来金价调整行情。 一句话就是，涨多了+没有新的驱动力，所以需要喘口气。 近期需要关注什么？ 一是美国大而美法案。当地时间周二，美国参议院表决结果通过 ...

7月3日（周四），黄金ETF基金（159937）上涨0.52%，盘中换手率1%，成交金额2.84亿元。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月2日，黄金ETF基金（159937）近 3月累计上涨4.98%。 | 多周期 设置 画线 | | 除权 窗 区 信息 删自选 ◎ | | 黄金ETF基金 159937 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 425 MA30: 7.418 MA60: 7.398 | | 8.140 | | | | | | 8.010 | | | 7.416 +0.038 +0.515% | | | | | 7.853 | 载化 | +2.06% | 548 | | | | | 5 | 7.420 | 1208 | | | | | | 7.419 | 1373 | | | | 7.561 | 3 | 7.418 | 2301 | | | | | 盛 2 | 7.417 | 7584 | | | | 7.274 | 1 | | | | | | | | 7.416 | 564 | | | | | 1 | 7.415 | 6105 | | | | 6.98 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [3] - The Fed's dot plot indicates that interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the next meeting, with two rate cuts anticipated by the end of the year, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00% [3] - Economic growth expectations have been downgraded while inflation expectations have been raised, indicating ongoing stagflation risks [3][4] Group 2 - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to expand steadily, with low unemployment and a stable labor market, although inflation remains "slightly high" [4] - The Fed is closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, have not significantly escalated, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold [4] Group 3 - UBS forecasts that global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings, predicting a gold price of approximately $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year [5] - The World Gold Council's latest survey indicates that central banks have added over 1,000 tons of gold annually for the past three years, double the average growth rate of the previous decade [5] - 95% of survey respondents expect an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months, supporting the bullish outlook for gold prices [5] Group 4 - The gold ETF fund (159937) is designed to closely track domestic gold prices, offering low entry barriers and diverse trading options [5] - Long-term, gold's value is expected to rise in line with the expansion of credit money supply and its role in hedging tail risks in investment portfolios [5] - Gold assets have historically performed well during both overheated and recessionary economic cycles, suggesting a favorable investment environment for gold ETFs [5]

Group 1 - International spot gold prices rose to over $3400 per ounce, with an increase of 1.24% on June 13, driven by geopolitical tensions [1] - Gold ETF (159937) increased by 1.6%, with a turnover rate of 0.13% and a transaction amount of 39.05 million yuan [1] - The overall gold price is showing a strong fluctuation due to risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month in May, lower than the market expectation of 0.2% [2] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2] - Initial jobless claims remained high at 248,000, indicating potential continued increases in claims due to seasonal factors [2] Group 3 - Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have increased, with a 61% probability of a cut in September and a 78% probability of two or more cuts by December [3] - Gold ETF (159937) offers low entry barriers and diverse trading forms, allowing for T+0 trading and aligning closely with domestic gold prices [3] - Long-term investment in gold is seen as valuable due to its ability to hedge against tail risks in economic cycles [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of investing in judicial auction gold bars, highlighting that starting prices are often significantly lower than recent market prices, but final auction prices frequently exceed market values, indicating limited opportunities for "bargain hunting" [1][3]. Summary by Sections Auction Dynamics - A 200-gram gold bar auctioned by a court in Xinjiang had a starting price of 119,723.2 yuan, significantly lower than the market price of 781.25 yuan per gram on June 5, with a final auction price of 155,563.2 yuan [2][3]. - The auction attracted 297 bids, with bidding increments starting at 10 yuan, reflecting high interest and competitive bidding behavior [3]. Market Context - The international gold price reached over 3,390 USD per ounce, marking a 29% increase since the beginning of the year, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties [3][11]. - The article notes that judicial auction platforms have become popular due to their transparent processes and lower investment barriers compared to traditional gold investment channels [11]. Investor Experiences - An investor, Li Zhen, shared her experience of successfully bidding for a gold bar at a lower starting price, but later regretted her early bid as competition was less than expected, leading to a final price slightly above market value [5][7]. - Many participants reported that auction prices often exceed market prices, reducing the chances of acquiring gold bars at a discount [8][9]. Auction Characteristics - Judicial auctions typically involve assets seized from criminal or civil cases, with the auctioned items evaluated based on international gold prices [11][12]. - Some auctioned gold bars come with certificates and original packaging, appealing to investors seeking low-risk physical gold investments [11][12]. Investment Sentiment - The article emphasizes that the increasing participation in judicial gold bar auctions reflects a broader market demand for gold as an investment, particularly in light of rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [11][12].

作 者丨万倩倩 见习记者李益文 编 辑丨梁明 刘巷 刘雪莹 金价又突然飙升！ 5月2 0日晚，现货黄金持续走高，突破3 2 8 0美元/盎司，日内涨超1 . 6%。 数据截至20日22:27 上期所沪金主力合约涨超1 . 8%。 | < W | SHEET F | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | AU.SHF | | | | | 770.08 | 昨结 756.24 | 开盘 760.60 | | 万得 | | | | | | 참□ | | +13.84 | +1.83% 总手 14.06万 | 现手 | 2 | | | 最高价 | 771.30 持 仓 22.34万 | 2 | 智 | 7.05万 | | 最低价 | 758.68 增 仓 1.21万 | 内 | ਵਿ | 7.01万 | | 원 | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | 車名 | | | 叠加 | | | 盘口 | | | 771.30 | | 1.99% 卖5 770.18 | | TI | | | | | 卖4 770.16 | 5 | | | | 卖3 | 770.14 卖2 770.12 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a notable adjustment due to a decrease in risk aversion stemming from improved US-China trade relations, leading to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to risk assets [1][3] - The recent week saw a significant outflow from gold ETFs, exceeding 4 billion yuan, as investors reacted to the easing of trade tensions, which has resulted in a short-term increase in the adjustment magnitude of precious metals [1] - The gold market currently lacks the foundation for a new upward momentum, with high short-term volatility and a rational adjustment process observed in the precious metals market, as indicated by the stable gold-silver ratio around 100 [2] Group 2 - The US-China trade negotiations have progressed beyond expectations, with the US agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, which has contributed to a more favorable market environment [3] - The Federal Reserve is considering revising its monetary policy framework in response to changing inflation and interest rate prospects, indicating potential challenges for the economy and central bank [3] - Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing persistent budget deficits as a concern, which may impact investor sentiment and market dynamics [3] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) allows investors to gain exposure to gold without the costs associated with physical storage and authentication, enhancing capital efficiency through a T+0 trading mechanism [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced an increase, surpassing $3240 per ounce, driven by investor concerns over global economic recovery and a shift towards safe-haven assets [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising government debt and interest expenses, which raised concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and stimulated demand for gold [1] - The recent decline in gold prices was attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced trade tensions, which diminished the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Over the past three weeks, gold has faced pressure due to reduced concerns over "stagflation" risks and a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with current expectations of a rate cut of about 58 basis points [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, as macroeconomic conditions suggest that the Federal Reserve will eventually implement monetary easing, benefiting gold prices [2] - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold and the continuous net inflow into gold ETFs indicate strong demand for gold, even after price corrections [3] Group 3 - The easing of trade tensions and geopolitical risks is expected to continue suppressing safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a potential maintenance of a corrective trend in gold prices [3] - The inflationary effects of tariffs have not yet fully transmitted to consumer prices, but there are risks of rising inflation data in May, which could impact economic performance [3] - The gold ETF (159937) allows investors to trade gold without the costs associated with physical gold, enhancing capital efficiency through a T+0 mechanism [3]

当地时间5月15日，鲍威尔在第二届Thomas Laubach研究会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美国可能正在 进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续时间也更持久的时期，这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。 北京时间5月13日晚间，美国劳工统计局公布了4月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，其中显示，美国4月 CPI同比上涨2.3%，为2021年2月以来新低，低于市场预期的2.4%；4月CPI环比上涨0.2%，低于市场预 期的0.3%，前置为-0.4%。 周四（5月15日），国际金价上演V型反转，亚洲早盘时段现货黄金曾急挫近2%至3120.64美元/盎司， 但随后多方力量强势反扑，推动金价实现单日近2%的涨幅，最终收报3239.58美元/盎司。延续此轮涨 势，周五（5月16日）亚市早盘现货黄金持续攀升，成功突破3250美元关键位并触及3252.05美元高位。 ETF方面，黄金ETF基金(159937) 跳空高开近2%，成交额已超2亿元，该ETF近一年累计涨幅超31%。 市场分析显示，本轮反弹主要受两大因素驱动：其一，俄乌谈判延期至周五，削弱了市场对冲突快速和 解的预期，刺激避险资金重新涌入黄金市场；其二，美国最新经济指标低于预 ...