Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xianju Pharmaceutical (002332.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3][18] Core Views - The report indicates that negative factors are gradually being resolved, and a transition between old and new growth drivers is expected, making an inflection point worth anticipating [1][3] - The company's performance is under pressure due to intensified competition in raw materials and pricing pressures in the formulation business, but there are signs of recovery with new product approvals and a potential turnaround in performance [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025H1, the company achieved revenue of 1.869 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 308 million yuan, down 9.26% year-on-year [3][5] - The revenue for 2025 is projected to be 3.986 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.36%, followed by growth rates of 11.70% and 15.85% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 632 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 59.10% [1][3] Segment Performance - The formulation segment's revenue for 2025H1 was 1.127 billion yuan, down 7.2%, with respiratory products showing stable growth [3][4] - The raw materials and intermediates segment saw a revenue decline of 20% in 2025H1, but the Italian subsidiary has resumed growth [3][4] Cost and Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2025H1 was 63.16%, an increase of 8.32 percentage points, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin formulation revenue [3][5] - The report notes an increase in the selling expense ratio to 29.30% and a management expense ratio of 8.80% for 2025H1 [3][5] Research and Development - The company continues to advance its R&D efforts, with several new products approved for production and ongoing clinical trials for innovative drugs [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to reduced income from Xianyao Trading and price drops in self-operated raw materials and certain products included in national procurement [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 1.869 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 12.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 308 million yuan, down 9.3% year-over-year [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 861 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 21.7%, while net profit was 164 million yuan, down 12.9% year-over-year [1] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to decreased income from Xianyao Trading, price reductions in self-operated raw materials, and price drops of products like Sugammadex and Dexamethasone due to inclusion in national procurement [1] Group 2: Raw Material Sector - The raw material segment generated revenue of 730 million yuan in 1H25, a decrease of 20% year-over-year [2] - Self-operated raw materials accounted for 423 million yuan in revenue, down 13.6% year-over-year, with expectations of slight revenue decline for 2025 due to price pressure in the non-standard market [2] - The Italian subsidiary reported revenue of 305 million yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-over-year, with expectations of single-digit growth for 2025 due to anticipated economic recovery overseas [2] - Xianyao Trading's revenue plummeted to 1.78 million yuan, a staggering decline of 98% year-over-year [2] Group 3: Formulation Sector - The formulation segment reported revenue of 1.127 billion yuan in 1H25, down 7.2% year-over-year, with expectations of over 10% revenue growth in 2024 [3] - Gynecology products generated 207 million yuan in revenue, down 11% year-over-year, primarily due to regional procurement impacts on progesterone capsules [3] - The anesthesia segment maintained revenue at 60 million yuan, while the respiratory segment saw a 13% year-over-year increase, achieving 446 million yuan in revenue [3] Group 4: R&D Pipeline - The company is approaching a period of intensive product launches, with several exclusive or first-generic products expected to hit the market soon [4] - Key upcoming products include: - Gonanes (exclusive, long-acting contraceptive, peak sales ~1.5 billion yuan) - Drospirenone (first-generic, short-acting contraceptive, approved in April 2023, peak sales 500-1,000 million yuan) - Estradiol Valerate (first-generic, approved in July 2024, peak sales 500-1,000 million yuan) [4] - New drugs in the anesthesia and respiratory categories are also in various stages of clinical trials, with significant peak sales potential [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to price pressure in the non-standard raw material market, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 575 million, 629 million, and 752 million yuan, representing decreases of 10.7%, 15.6%, and 15.2% respectively [5] - Based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, the company is valued at 13.871 billion yuan, with a target price of 14.02 yuan, slightly up from the previous 13.86 yuan, primarily due to an increase in comparable company PE [5]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline, while net profit attributable to shareholders was significantly impacted by a fine related to sodium dexamethasone sales, with a stable growth in non-recurring net profit [1][2][3] - The impact of centralized procurement on the formulation segment has been largely digested, and new products are continuously being introduced, with expectations for accelerated growth in 2025 [1][4] - Revenue from the raw materials segment declined due to inventory destocking by overseas clients and price decreases, but sales volume remains stable, with a positive outlook for gradual recovery [1][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 4.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, down 29.46% [2][3] - The non-recurring net profit for 2024 was 549 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.15% [2][3] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, with a net profit of 140 million yuan, down 4.7% [2][3] Formulation Segment - In 2024, the formulation sales revenue reached 2.276 billion yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year [4] - Key therapeutic areas showed varied performance, with gynecology and family planning sales at 450 million yuan, stable year-on-year; anesthetic muscle relaxants at 160 million yuan, up 55%; respiratory products at 880 million yuan, up 31%; and dermatology products at 230 million yuan, up 19% [4] - The company’s new products are expected to accelerate growth, with significant sales increases in new offerings such as sodium glucosamine injection [4][6] Raw Materials Segment - In 2024, revenue from raw materials and intermediates was 1.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13% [5] - The decline was attributed to inventory destocking in the international market and increased competition leading to price drops [5][6] - The company is expected to see a recovery in the raw materials segment as prices stabilize and market share increases [5][6] Expense Analysis - In 2024, the company's sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 25.84%, 7.74%, and 6.63%, respectively, with slight increases year-on-year [7] - The gross margin improved to 57.49%, up 4.61 percentage points, attributed to the clearing of centralized procurement impacts and operational efficiency [7] - The net profit margin was 10%, significantly impacted by a fine provision of 195 million yuan [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in revenue and profit in 2025, with non-centralized procurement products anticipated to grow steadily [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.35 billion, 4.81 billion, and 5.48 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 10.7%, and 13.8% respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue of 4.0 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.4 billion yuan, down 29.5% year-on-year. However, the adjusted net profit increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 0.55 billion yuan [3]. - The company's formulation business showed steady growth, with revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, up 6.0% year-on-year, while the raw material drug segment faced a decline in revenue of 1.55 billion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the company's unique and innovative products, which are expected to drive the formulation business to new heights [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.0 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.4 billion yuan. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.01 billion yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.14 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year [3]. - The company forecasts a recovery in net profit from 0.64 billion yuan in 2025 to 0.77 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 61.2%, 7.0%, and 11.7% [6][7]. Business Segments - The formulation business is the main growth driver, with significant contributions from respiratory and dermatological products, while the raw material drug segment is under pressure due to price declines [4][5]. - The report notes that the company is focusing on upgrading its product offerings and increasing its share in high-end markets, which is expected to stabilize the raw material drug business in the long term [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of innovative products and the growth of unique products, which will likely enhance its market position and drive revenue growth [5][6].