来源：滚动播报 新年假期过后，市场交投清淡，美元兑一篮子货币和兑欧元走势平稳。周五几乎没有经济数据公布，许 多交易员要到下周才会返岗。上周的美联储会议纪要显示，一些决策者不愿支持近期进一步降息。不 过，该纪要继续强调劳动力市场面临的风险。DXY美元指数稳定在98.337，欧元则基本持平于1.1737美 元。 ...

在推迟公布的美国11月份非农就业报告显示失业率升幅超过预期，达到4.6%后，美元从前一交易日触 及的10周低点回升。德国商业银行的Antje Praefcke在一份报告中称，尽管美元在该数据公布后最初下 跌，但市场"并未真正跟风认为美联储可能最早在1月份再次降息"。她说，在上周的美联储会议上，再 次降息的门槛似乎有所提高，因此美元收复了一些失地。DXY美元指数上涨0.5%，至98.622，周二曾触 及97.869的低点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

来源：滚动播报 美元扩大跌幅，兑一篮子货币触及一个月低点，因在美国总统特朗普暗示可能提名凯文·哈塞特担任下 一任美联储主席后，美国的降息预期升温。荷兰国际集团分析师Chris Turner在一份报告中称，哈塞特 的观点被认为与曾多次呼吁降息的特朗普的观点最为一致。市场对该消息的反应是美元走软、短期收益 率的降幅快于长期收益率以及风险资产上涨。Turner称，在美联储12月10日做出决定之前，这可能一直 是市场的主导主题。DXY美元指数跌至98.968。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the US dollar is influenced by uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, with recent comments from officials indicating a divide in decision-making [1] Economic Data - Recent US economic data, including the delayed September non-farm payroll report, did not provide clear signals for the interest rate path, showing a higher-than-expected increase in employment but an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate [1] - The complete employment data for October will not be available due to a recent government shutdown, adding to the uncertainty [1] Market Indicators - The DXY dollar index remained flat at 100.192, reflecting the current stability of the dollar amidst the mixed economic signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from a strong dollar cycle to a weak dollar cycle, highlighting the expected decline of the US dollar and its implications for global assets and currencies [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Dollar Cycle Phases - The dollar has experienced various cycles since 1971, with the current phase being a weak dollar cycle that has lasted over a year [1]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant decline in the DXY dollar index to 89 by the end of 2026, approximately 10% lower than the current level of 99.7 [2]. Currency Predictions - By the end of 2026, the euro is expected to rise from 1.1533 to 1.27 against the dollar, and the British pound from 1.3111 to 1.47 [2]. - The dollar is projected to fall against the Japanese yen from 154 to 124 [2]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts the dollar to yuan exchange rate to drop to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [2]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, signaling a gradual easing approach [2]. - Market expectations for further rate cuts in 2026 have decreased, with a potential terminal rate approaching 3% [2]. Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - Interest rate differentials are narrowing, with the Fed's rate cuts and the European Central Bank's slower rate cuts expected to reduce the dollar's carry trade advantage [3]. - Fiscal policies, including the anticipated tax cuts under Trump, are projected to increase federal deficits significantly, contributing to a weaker dollar [3]. - Global trust in the dollar as a safe asset is diminishing due to geopolitical tensions and economic policies, with the IMF reporting the lowest global dollar reserve share since 1995 [3]. Asset Rotation and Market Sentiment - A clear rotation in global assets is anticipated, with risk assets rebounding and commodity prices rising as the dollar weakens [7]. - Institutions like Allianz, UBS, and Bank of America recognize the consensus on a weaker dollar, shifting market logic towards buying non-dollar assets [7]. - UBS has upgraded emerging market stocks to overweight, particularly favoring Chinese stocks due to their relative valuation and low foreign investor holdings [7].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is hovering near a three-month high following a downgrade in interest rate cut expectations, with market focus shifting to the upcoming ADP private sector employment report due to the suspension of official employment data during the government shutdown [1] Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) is stable at 100.163, close to the high of 100.255 reached on Tuesday [1] - Market sentiment is influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments indicating that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [1] - The ADP employment report is expected to gain significance as it will provide insights into the labor market amid the government shutdown [1]