Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from a strong dollar cycle to a weak dollar cycle, highlighting the expected decline of the US dollar and its implications for global assets and currencies [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Dollar Cycle Phases - The dollar has experienced various cycles since 1971, with the current phase being a weak dollar cycle that has lasted over a year [1]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant decline in the DXY dollar index to 89 by the end of 2026, approximately 10% lower than the current level of 99.7 [2]. Currency Predictions - By the end of 2026, the euro is expected to rise from 1.1533 to 1.27 against the dollar, and the British pound from 1.3111 to 1.47 [2]. - The dollar is projected to fall against the Japanese yen from 154 to 124 [2]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts the dollar to yuan exchange rate to drop to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [2]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, signaling a gradual easing approach [2]. - Market expectations for further rate cuts in 2026 have decreased, with a potential terminal rate approaching 3% [2]. Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - Interest rate differentials are narrowing, with the Fed's rate cuts and the European Central Bank's slower rate cuts expected to reduce the dollar's carry trade advantage [3]. - Fiscal policies, including the anticipated tax cuts under Trump, are projected to increase federal deficits significantly, contributing to a weaker dollar [3]. - Global trust in the dollar as a safe asset is diminishing due to geopolitical tensions and economic policies, with the IMF reporting the lowest global dollar reserve share since 1995 [3]. Asset Rotation and Market Sentiment - A clear rotation in global assets is anticipated, with risk assets rebounding and commodity prices rising as the dollar weakens [7]. - Institutions like Allianz, UBS, and Bank of America recognize the consensus on a weaker dollar, shifting market logic towards buying non-dollar assets [7]. - UBS has upgraded emerging market stocks to overweight, particularly favoring Chinese stocks due to their relative valuation and low foreign investor holdings [7].

在美国降息预期被下调后，美元汇率徘徊在三个月高点附近。丹麦银行的Jens Naervig Pedersen在一份 报告中称，在缺乏其他主要催化剂的情况下，市场继续消化美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上 周的言论，即12月份降息并非已成定局。周三的焦点转向格林威治时间1315公布的ADP私营部门就业报 告，鉴于政府停摆期间官方就业数据暂停发布，该报告可能变得尤为重要。DXY美元指数持平于 100.163，接近周二触及的100.255高点。 来源：滚动播报 ...