欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 本周将举行杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会,下半年货币 IF2509 政策方向对权益市场影响关键,而A股近一月涨幅 IH2509 顺周期补涨,指数表现分化 较大,预计进入高位震荡等待方向抉择。推荐买入 股指 IC2509 看跌期权保护多头仓位,或阶段性部分止盈此前仓 IM2509 位。 目前观察短期10年期国债利率在1.78%-1.8%%附 近可能是阶段利率上行的阻力位,对应T2512合 T2509 债市情绪修复,期债全线收涨 约在107.4-107.6附近有支撑。考虑到股市持续 TF2509 国债 金融 走强,债市行情不排除有反复,关注关键点位是否 TS2509 TL2509 有突破迹象,以及情绪能否继续企稳。单边策略上 建议短期保持观望。 黄金震荡偏强,建议买入黄金期权 AU2510 贵金属 市场消化美联储降息预期 美元指数止跌反弹贵金属小幅回落 AIU2512C776卖出AU2512C792构建牛市价 AG2510 差策略;白银多单在38美元上方继续持有 集运指数 EC2510 偏弱震荡,10合约空单继续持有 EC主力走势偏弱 (欧线) 10合约热卷和螺纹 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The main reasons for the significant increase in the 10 and far - month contracts are the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market and European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors. The current situation of European routes is stable reality and weak expectation. After the repair of deep discount on the disk, investors should not chase high. The recommended strategy is to short 10 contracts on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 1733, down 1.71% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1314, down 2.18%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West increased by 5.03%, SCFIS - US West decreased by 18.69%, SCFI - US East rose by 1.16%, SCFI - Northwest Europe dropped by 0.10%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased by 7.22%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 7.04% [3]. - **EC Contracts**: The EC contracts generally showed a trend of decline. For example, EC2506 decreased by 2.42%, EC2508 increased by 1.27%, EC2510 decreased by 3.47%, EC2512 decreased by 4.19%, EC5602 decreased by 3.50%, and EC2604 decreased by 2.90%. In terms of positions, there were increases and decreases in different contracts. For example, EC2606 position increased by 4, EC2508 position decreased by 2808, EC2410 position increased by 3849, etc. The month - spread also changed, with the 10 - 12 month - spread increasing by 84.5, the 12 - 2 month - spread increasing by 19.5, and the 12 - 4 month - spread decreasing by 38.8 [3]. Market News - **Geopolitical News**: Protests broke out in Israel demanding a hostage agreement. Israel accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage release draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas rejected it. The core of the deadlock is the map parameters for the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza. Israel will propose a new map plan next Monday [4]. - **Shipping Market News**: MSK opened bookings for wk31 at a flat price of 3000. Some 0A ships' offline sailings can guarantee cabins, have long - free timeliness, and allow for off - site container returns at the destination port. MSK has some single - point cabin space on European routes. For PA7 at the end of the month, some special - price cabins for matching goods still need to be booked in advance, and the overall cabin space at the end of the month is abundant. European port congestion has not been alleviated due to factors such as labor shortages, strikes at the Port of Antwerp, low Rhine River water levels, and increased risks in the Red Sea route [5][6][7][8]. EC Market - **Market Review**: The market declined. The EC2510 contract rose by more than 16% again yesterday, with a cumulative increase of more than 20% in two days [9]. - **Reasons for the Increase**: The main reasons for the significant increase in the 10 and far - month contracts are the change of the main contract, better - than - expected spot market and European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors [10][11]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: There may still be a rush to ship in July. The current situation of European routes is stable reality and weak expectation. The spot market is expected to enter an arc - top trend from late July to early August. The recommended strategy is to short 10 contracts on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and shipping industry futures on June 24, 2025. They cover aspects such as price differences, basis, yields, exchange rates, and fundamental data, providing investors with a multi - dimensional view of market conditions [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the price differences of various contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures price differences, inter - period price differences, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures price difference is - 60.50, with a change of 12.54 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: It also shows the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of these price differences, which can help investors understand the relative position of current price differences in history [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: The basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented. For instance, the TS basis is 1.8674, with a change of - 0.0681 compared to the previous day, and the IRR percentile is 43.20% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Price Differences**: Inter - period price differences and cross - variety price differences are also provided, such as the TS inter - period price difference between the next quarter and the current quarter is - 0.2380 [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver are reported. For example, the AU2508 contract closed at 781.30 yuan/gram on June 23, with a gain of 0.35% [5]. - **Yields and Exchange Rates**: The yields of US Treasury bonds and exchange rates such as the US dollar index and offshore RMB exchange rate are also included, which can affect the prices of precious metals [5]. Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are provided, along with the changes in shipping rates. For example, the MAERSK shipping rate decreased by 3.31% from June 23 to June 24 [8]. - **Index and Futures Prices**: The settlement price indices of shipping routes and the prices of shipping futures contracts are reported, as well as the basis of the main contract [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container运力 supply, port - related indicators, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators are presented, which can help analyze the fundamentals of the shipping industry [9]. Data and Information - **Overseas Data**: Economic indicators such as the US first - quarter current account and June consumer confidence index are provided [11]. - **Domestic Data**: Economic indicators and events related to black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and special commodities in the domestic market are reported, such as port inventories of iron ore and manganese ore [11].