TS-T —— TF-T 注教也公众 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【 2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年10月10日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品中 | 10月9日 | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | 张联帽 | 单位 | | AU2512合约 | 914.32 | 866.52 | 47.80 | 5.52% | 7L/52 | | AG2512合约 | 11169 | 10939 | 230 | 2.10% | 元/千克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 10月9日 | 10月8日 | 张浩 | 张跃幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 3991.10 | 4060.60 | -69.50 | -1.71% | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银主力合约 | 47.66 | 48.44 | -0.78 | -1.62% | | | 现货价格 | | | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1][3] - The COMEX gold futures have also seen a strong upward trend, with prices reaching a peak of $3,578.4 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 1% increase during trading [3] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to dovish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials, leading to increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2 - In China, there is a growing enthusiasm for gold purchases, with many gold stores experiencing high foot traffic, indicating a broad interest in gold as both a wedding gift and an investment [4] - Domestic gold prices have also risen, with notable increases such as the price at Chow Sang Sang reaching 1,041 yuan per gram, up by 16 yuan from the previous day [4] - Experts predict that gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with some forecasts suggesting a potential rise to $4,000 by mid-2026, leading to mixed reactions among investors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports mainly present the daily data of various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, without explicitly stating a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences**: The latest values and changes of F, IH, IC, and IM futures price differences are provided, along with their historical 1 - year and full - history quantiles [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures, such as the spreads between the next month and the current month, the far month and the current month, etc., are presented, including their changes and quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios of various futures varieties, such as the ratio of IC to IF, IC to IH, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: The implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures are provided, including their latest values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, such as the spreads between the current quarter and the next quarter, are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads between different bond futures, such as the spread between TS and TF, are given, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, as well as spot prices, are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of precious metals, such as the difference between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, is presented, along with its changes and historical 1 - year quantiles [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios of gold to silver, interest rates of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories and positions of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, Shanghai export container freight rates, etc., are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures and their basis are given, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. 3.5 Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone's CPI, US manufacturing PMI, etc., are presented, along with their release times and data sources [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in China, such as manganese ore inventory, port inventory, etc., are provided, along with their release times and data sources [7].

（原标题：现货黄金突破3500美元 机构：年底或至3700美元） 展望后市，多家国际机构表示看好黄金新一轮上涨空间。高盛预计到2025年年底，金价将升至每盎司 3700美元；到2026年中期，金价将进一步攀升至每盎司4000美元。摩根大通也预测2026年黄金价格将突 破4000美元/盎司，而且这一目标可能"比预期来得更快"。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 9月2日，现货黄金盘中突破3500美元/盎司，创下历史新高。年初至今，金价累计涨幅超33%。COMEX 黄金主力合约同步上涨，盘中最高涨近1%，最高报价3578.4美元/盎司。 截至12:00，报3563.0美元/盎司。A股市场上，黄金珠宝板块持续活跃，莱绅通灵、西部黄金等个股涨 停。现货黄金连续第六个交易日上涨，主要受美联储降息预期升温、节点渐进影响。 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have significantly increased, with spot gold surpassing $3470 per ounce, reaching a new high since April 22, and COMEX gold futures also rising [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have followed suit, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing price increases, with Chow Tai Fook priced at 1015 yuan per gram, up 0.59% [1] - The A-share market has shown a strong response, with the gold jewelry index rising by 4.56%, and companies like Western Gold and Yuguang Gold seeing stock price increases of over 9% [1] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, declining U.S. economic data, and pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed [2] - The analyst predicts that gold prices could reach between $3600 and $3800 per ounce after breaking the $3500 mark, with an expected increase of $150 to $200 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in international gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $3,470 per ounce, is attributed to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, declining U.S. economic data, and pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of September 1, spot gold reached $3,475.25 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose to $3,543.7 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing price rises of 0.59% and 0.89% respectively [1]. - The gold jewelry index in the A-share market surged by 4.77%, with companies like Western Gold and Yuguang Gold rising over 9% [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analyst Song Jiangzhen predicts that gold prices could reach between $3,600 and $3,800 per ounce, with a potential increase of $150 to $200 after surpassing $3,500 [2]. - Factors supporting the upward trend in gold prices include a declining U.S. dollar index, concerns over U.S. political stability, and preferences for gold reserves in certain U.S. states [2]. - Recent U.S. inflation data indicated a 2.9% year-over-year increase in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, reinforcing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views There are no explicit core views presented in the reports. The reports mainly offer data on various futures and spot markets, including price changes, spreads, and inventory levels. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Price Spreads**: Presents current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time percentiles for various stock index futures spreads such as IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF term - current spread is 19.60% with a change of - 22.69, and the 1 - year percentile is 13.51% [1]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Details include the differences between different contract months like next month - current month, far month - current month, etc. For instance, the next month - current month spread of IF is - 7.80 with a change of 5.60 and a 1 - year percentile of 34.40% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Provides ratios such as the CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their changes and percentiles. For example, the IC/IF ratio is 1.4901 with a change of - 0.0225 and a 1 - year percentile of 63.10% [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Basis and IRR**: Lists the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) for different treasury bond futures like TS, TF, T, and TL. For example, the TS basis is 1.6630 with a change of - 0.0146 and an IRR percentile of 27.60% [2]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Gives the spreads between different contract quarters. For instance, the current quarter - next quarter spread of TS is - 0.0620 with a change of 0.0160 and a percentile of 13.50% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents spreads between different treasury bond futures varieties such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. For example, the TS - TF spread is - 3.6050 with a change of - 0.0290 and a percentile of 6.60% [2]. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 776.28 yuan/gram on July 17, down 0.05% from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: Provides the basis between different gold and silver contracts, including their current values, changes, and historical percentiles. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 5.36 with a change of - 0.90 and a 1 - year percentile of 1.60% [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Details inventory levels and changes in inventory for domestic and foreign exchanges, as well as ETF positions. For example, the SHFE gold inventory is 28872 kg, unchanged from the previous day [4]. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Spot Quotes**: Displays spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies. For example, the MAERSK quote is 3066 dollars/FEU, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Presents settlement price indexes for different routes such as the SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route), along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) settled at 2421.94, up 7.26% from July 7 [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Provides futures prices and basis for container shipping contracts. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1485.7, up 1.52% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract is 989.8, up 18.34% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes information on container shipping capacity supply, foreign trade - related indicators, and overseas economic data. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply is 3271.40 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day [6]. **Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report** - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone May seasonally - adjusted current account and the US July one - year inflation rate expectation [8]. - **Domestic Data**: Covers various domestic economic indicators for different industries including agriculture, black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities. For example, for the polyester industry, Asian/China PX operating rate and downstream polyester product inventory are reported [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and shipping industry futures on June 24, 2025. They cover aspects such as price differences, basis, yields, exchange rates, and fundamental data, providing investors with a multi - dimensional view of market conditions [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the price differences of various contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures price differences, inter - period price differences, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures price difference is - 60.50, with a change of 12.54 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: It also shows the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of these price differences, which can help investors understand the relative position of current price differences in history [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: The basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented. For instance, the TS basis is 1.8674, with a change of - 0.0681 compared to the previous day, and the IRR percentile is 43.20% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Price Differences**: Inter - period price differences and cross - variety price differences are also provided, such as the TS inter - period price difference between the next quarter and the current quarter is - 0.2380 [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver are reported. For example, the AU2508 contract closed at 781.30 yuan/gram on June 23, with a gain of 0.35% [5]. - **Yields and Exchange Rates**: The yields of US Treasury bonds and exchange rates such as the US dollar index and offshore RMB exchange rate are also included, which can affect the prices of precious metals [5]. Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are provided, along with the changes in shipping rates. For example, the MAERSK shipping rate decreased by 3.31% from June 23 to June 24 [8]. - **Index and Futures Prices**: The settlement price indices of shipping routes and the prices of shipping futures contracts are reported, as well as the basis of the main contract [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container运力 supply, port - related indicators, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators are presented, which can help analyze the fundamentals of the shipping industry [9]. Data and Information - **Overseas Data**: Economic indicators such as the US first - quarter current account and June consumer confidence index are provided [11]. - **Domestic Data**: Economic indicators and events related to black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and special commodities in the domestic market are reported, such as port inventories of iron ore and manganese ore [11].

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant volatility on May 29, with spot gold prices dropping over 1% to $3252.19 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell by 1.40% to $3276 per ounce [1][2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices in China also declined in response to international market fluctuations, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing prices drop to around 1000 yuan per gram [3][4] - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to a easing of geopolitical tensions, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5] Group 2 - Recent gold price movements have shown a range between a high of $3400 and a low of $3120, indicating a downward shift in both the high and low points compared to previous levels [5] - Analysts suggest that if gold prices do not fall below the $3120 mark, there may be a potential for a rebound in the second half of the year, contingent on fundamental market conditions [5] - A recent U.S. court ruling has blocked President Trump's tariff policy, which may have implications for the broader economic environment and consequently affect gold prices [5][6]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, IM, and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Spot - Futures Spread**: IF's is - 30.20, down 1.29; IH's is - 16.68, down 1.66; IC's is - 74.15, up 0.72; IM's is - 93.46, up 10.33 [1] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different delivery month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with various changes and quantiles [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Displays the latest values, changes from the previous day, and quantiles since listing of treasury bond futures spreads, including TS, TF, T, TL, and cross - variety spreads [4] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Basis**: IRR and basis values for TS, TF, T, and TL are presented [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Spreads between different delivery months for TS, TF, T, and TL are shown, with corresponding changes and quantiles [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different treasury bond futures varieties are given, along with their changes and quantiles [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [8] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Domestic and Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: AU2508 contract is down 0.73%, AG2508 contract is down 0.76%; COMEX gold is down 1.73%, COMEX silver is down 0.76% [8] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D, and silver T + D all show declines [8] - **Basis**: Basis values and their changes for gold and silver are presented, along with historical 1 - year quantiles [8] - **Ratio**: Ratios of COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver are given, with their changes and percentage changes [8] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decline, while the US dollar index rises [8] - **Inventory and Positions**: Some inventories change slightly, and ETF positions remain unchanged [8] Group 4: Container Shipping Index - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Provides settlement price indices, Shanghai export container freight rates, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [12] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Settlement Price Index**: SCFIS (European route) is down 1.44%, SCFIS (US West route) is up 18.90% [12] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI composite index, SCFI (Europe), SCFI (US West), and SCFI (US East) all show increases [12] - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts change, and the basis of the main contract decreases by 7.16% [12] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is stable, Shanghai port's on - time rate and berthing situation decline, and some overseas economic indicators change [12] Group 5: Domestic Data/Information - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Lists domestic economic indicators and financial events in different sectors, including black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities [17] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Steel Union's weekly survey of 523 mine production and sales for coking coal and coke [17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: China's port commercial crude oil inventory data from Longzhong Information [17] - **Special Commodities**: Glass sales rate and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory [17] Group 6: Capital Flow and Key Position Changes - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report title mentions capital flow and key position changes, but specific content is incomplete and unavailable for detailed summary [19]