本周回顾 · 股票市场 本周（11月10日至11月14日）A股市场主要宽基指数悉数回调。其中，上证指数周度下跌0.18%；深证成指周度下跌1.40%；创业板指周度下跌3.01%；新华 500指数周度下跌1.09%。 新华500指数本周震荡回调，开盘报5180.21点，至14日收盘报5111.18点，全周振幅2.01%，成交额为3.43万亿元。 从申万一级行业来看，本周行业指数涨多跌少，综合、纺织服饰、商贸零售、美容护理、医药生物等行业指数涨幅居前，通信、电子、计算机、机械设备、 国防军工等行业指数跌幅居前。 外汇市场方面，美元指数本周整体走势承压，一度跌破99关口，周五收于99.28点，累计下跌0.26%，为连续第二周收跌。尽管美国联邦政府史上最长"停 摆"结束，但"停摆"导致美国部分关键经济数据发布缺失，令外界难以判断美国经济真实状况。非美货币多数上行，其中欧元兑美元累计上涨0.48%，日元兑 美元累计下挫0.72%，英镑兑美元累计上涨0.08%。加密货币市场本周全线下挫，比特币跌破95000美元。 | | 11月10日-11月14日当周数 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 分类 | 名称 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports. The reports mainly provide various data on different financial products such as stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals, and container shipping. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF期现价差**: The latest value is -29.70, down -11.10 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 27.80% and an all - time historical quantile of 13.60% [1]. - **IH期现价差**: The latest value is -4.77, down -5.02 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 31.10% and an all - time historical quantile of 34.70% [1]. - **IC期现价差**: The latest value is -116.23, down -22.22 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 13.50% and an all - time historical quantile of 2.00% [1]. - **IM期现价差**: The latest value is -151.33, down -11.21 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 50.00% and an all - time historical quantile of 9.80% [1]. - **跨品种比值**: For example, the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 300 is 1.5612, down -0.0147 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 84.00% and an all - time historical quantile of 64.90% [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: For example, the IRR of a certain bond is 1.7186, down -0.0401 from the previous day, with a historical percentile since listing of 33.40% [4]. - **跨期价差**: For TS, the spread between the current quarter and the next quarter is 0.0400, up 0.0020 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 31.40% [4]. - **跨品种价差**: For example, the spread between TS and TF is -3.5320, up 0.0020 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 8.30% [4]. Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2512 contract closed at 915.58 yuan/gram on November 4, down -7.00 yuan or -0.76% from November 3. The AG2512 contract closed at 11238 yuan/kilogram, down -217 yuan or -1.89% [5]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 3941.30 dollars/ounce on November 4, down -72.40 dollars or -1.80% from November 3. The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 46.90 dollars, down -1.01 dollars or -2.12% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3931.95 dollars/ounce on November 4, down -69.12 dollars or -1.73% from November 3. London silver was at 47.12 dollars/ounce, down -0.95 dollars or -1.97% [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 is 0.10, up 2.48 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 93.90% [5]. - **Ratios**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 84.05, up 0.27 or 0.32% from the previous day [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.10%, down -0.03% from the previous day. The US dollar index is 100.21, up 0.33 or 0.33% [5]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 87816, unchanged from the previous day. The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory is 665610 kilograms, up 6759 kilograms or 1.03% [5]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate reference is 2457 dollars/FEU on November 4, up 199 dollars or 8.81% from November 3 [7]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 1208.71 on November 3, down -104.0 or -7.92% from October 27. The SCFIS (US West route) is 1267.15, up 159.8 or 14.43% [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract is 1593.7 on November 4, up 1.5 or 0.09% from November 3. The basis of the main contract is -276.3, down -1.5 or 0.55% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3335.89 million TEU on November 4, unchanged from November 3. The Shanghai port on - time rate in September is 42.77%, up 24.46 percentage points or 133.59% from August [7].

Report Summary of Futures Market Data 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core View The reports present a comprehensive set of data on various futures markets including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. These data cover price differences, ratios, yields, exchange rates, inventories, and other relevant indicators, providing investors with a basis for analyzing market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports detail the price differences between futures and spot prices, as well as across different contract months for IF, IH, IC, and IM stock index futures. For example, the IF period - spot price difference is -9.27, and the H period - spot price difference is 3.65 [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: Each price difference is accompanied by its historical percentile over the past year and the entire futures - listing period, helping investors understand the relative position of the current price difference [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, IC/IF, and others are provided, with their changes and historical percentiles [1]. Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: Information on the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis for different bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) is given, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) are presented, including their values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Price and Spread**: The reports include domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver. For instance, the AU2512 contract closed at 921.92 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4077.20 dollars [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate, and inventories of precious metals in different exchanges are provided [3]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies (MAERSK, CMA, MSC, etc.) are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes such as SCFIS (European and US West routes) and Shanghai export container freight indexes (SCFI) are given, showing their growth rates [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2512, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are reported, along with their changes [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Information on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (quasi - punctuality rate, berthing situation), monthly export balance, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, etc.) is provided [4].

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical quantiles, and all - time historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on October 20, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: F futures - spot spread is - 29.03, down 0.61 from the previous day; H futures - spot spread is - 4.77, down 4.58; IC futures - spot spread is - 152.87, up 0.50%; IM futures - spot spread is 70.00% (the value seems to have a format issue in the original text) [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, in F inter - period spreads, the spread between the next - month and the current - month is - 43.80, down 29.40 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 300 is - 0.0116, up 1.5542; the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50 is 2.3641, down 0.0311 [1]. Report 2: Bond Futures Price Spread Daily Report Core View - Provides the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical quantiles since listing of various bond futures bases, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads as of October 20, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **Bases**: TS base is 1.5643, down 0.0313; TF base is 1.7127, down 0.0348; T base is 1.7176; TL base is 1.7225, up 0.2457 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For TS inter - period spreads, the spread between the current - quarter and the next - quarter is 0.0850, down 0.0200 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The spread between TS and TF is - 3.4020, down 0.0590; the spread between TS and T is - 5.9170, down 0.1140 [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report Core View - Displays the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, bases, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventories, and positions on October 20, 2025 [3]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2512 contract closed at 999.80 yuan/gram on October 17, up 33.38 from the previous day; the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4267.90 dollars/ounce, down 76.40 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 4251.45 dollars/ounce on October 17, down 75.03; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 995.90 yuan/gram, up 28.61 [3]. - **Bases**: The base of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 is - 3.90, down 4.77; the base of London gold - COMEX gold is - 16.45, up 1.37 [3]. - **Ratios**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 84.30, up 3.00; the ratio of SHFE gold to silver is 81.62, up 1.20 [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.02%, up 0.03%; the US dollar index is 98.56, up 0.20 [3]. - **Inventories and Positions**: The SHFE gold inventory is 84606 kilograms, up 3645; the SPRD gold ETF position is 1047, up 12.59 [3]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report Core View - Covers spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, bases, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on October 20, 2025 [5]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate is 1900 dollars/FEU on October 20, up 15 from the previous day [5]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 1031.80 on October 13, down 14.7 from October 6 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Bases**: The EC2602 contract is at 1472.0 on October 17, up 42.8; the base of the main contract is - 384.4, down 5.4 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3321.84 million TEU on October 20, unchanged from the previous day; the port on - time rate in Shanghai in September is 42.77, up 24.46 from August [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views No explicit core views are presented in the given reports. The reports mainly offer daily data on various financial products, including price differences, price changes, and related percentile information. 3. Summary by Category **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Futures - Spot Price Differences**: The IF futures - spot price difference was -20.28, up 2.41; the IH was 5.40, up 5.34; the IC was -133.12, down 11.15; and the IM was -198.45, down 29.69 [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM showed various changes, such as the IF's "next month - current month" being -9.60, up 1.80 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/SSE 300 were 1.6029, up 0.0057; IC/IF was 1.2812, up 0.0028, etc. [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Basis**: The TS basis was -0.0385, down 0.0013; the TF was -0.0580, up 0.0173; the T was 0.0310, down 0.1644; and the TL was 0.2382, down 0.0815 [3]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For example, the TS "current quarter - next quarter" inter - delivery spread was 0.0980, up 0.0120 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The TS - TF spread was -3.3360, down 0.0780; the TS - T was -5.6510, down 0.1780, etc. [3]. **Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report** - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2512 contract closed at 914.32, up 47.80; the AG2512 was 11169, up 230 [4]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold main contract was 3991.10, down 69.50; the COMEX silver main contract was 47.66, down 0.78 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was 3975.95, down 64.47; London silver was 49.21, up 0.35, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was -2.94, up 1.08; the silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was 7, up 68 [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventories, and Positions**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver were 83.75, down 0.08; 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.14, up 0.01; the US dollar index was 99.40, up 0.56; etc. [4]. **Container Shipping Index Futures - Spot Daily Report** - **Settlement Price Index**: The SCFIS (European route) was 1046.50, down 74.0; the SCFIS (US West route) was 876.82, down 44.4 [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: For example, the EC2602 contract was 1406.0, down 236.8; the basis (main contract) was -231.0, up 117.8 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity supply was 3320.03, unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate was 18.31, down 14.27; etc. [7]. **Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report** - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week reference freight was 1835, down 23; CMA CGM was 2501, up 254 [9]. **Fund Flow and Key Seats' Position Change Daily Report** No clear and analyzable content is provided in the given document.

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1][3] - The COMEX gold futures have also seen a strong upward trend, with prices reaching a peak of $3,578.4 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 1% increase during trading [3] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to dovish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials, leading to increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2 - In China, there is a growing enthusiasm for gold purchases, with many gold stores experiencing high foot traffic, indicating a broad interest in gold as both a wedding gift and an investment [4] - Domestic gold prices have also risen, with notable increases such as the price at Chow Sang Sang reaching 1,041 yuan per gram, up by 16 yuan from the previous day [4] - Experts predict that gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with some forecasts suggesting a potential rise to $4,000 by mid-2026, leading to mixed reactions among investors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports mainly present the daily data of various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, without explicitly stating a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences**: The latest values and changes of F, IH, IC, and IM futures price differences are provided, along with their historical 1 - year and full - history quantiles [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures, such as the spreads between the next month and the current month, the far month and the current month, etc., are presented, including their changes and quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios of various futures varieties, such as the ratio of IC to IF, IC to IH, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: The implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures are provided, including their latest values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, such as the spreads between the current quarter and the next quarter, are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads between different bond futures, such as the spread between TS and TF, are given, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, as well as spot prices, are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of precious metals, such as the difference between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, is presented, along with its changes and historical 1 - year quantiles [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios of gold to silver, interest rates of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories and positions of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, Shanghai export container freight rates, etc., are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures and their basis are given, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. 3.5 Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone's CPI, US manufacturing PMI, etc., are presented, along with their release times and data sources [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in China, such as manganese ore inventory, port inventory, etc., are provided, along with their release times and data sources [7].

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have reached a historic high of over $3500 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 2, spot gold prices broke through $3500 per ounce, marking a record high [1] - The COMEX gold futures contract also saw a rise, peaking at $3578.4 per ounce during the trading session [1] - As of 12:00, the price was reported at $3563.0 per ounce [1] - The gold jewelry sector in the A-share market remained active, with stocks like Laisen Tongling and Western Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - Gold has risen for six consecutive trading days, primarily driven by increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Multiple international institutions are optimistic about a new round of gold price increases [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, gold prices will rise to $3700 per ounce, and further to $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - JPMorgan also forecasts that gold prices will exceed $4000 per ounce by 2026, potentially reaching this target sooner than expected [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices have significantly increased, with spot gold surpassing $3470 per ounce, reaching a new high since April 22, and COMEX gold futures also rising [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have followed suit, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing price increases, with Chow Tai Fook priced at 1015 yuan per gram, up 0.59% [1] - The A-share market has shown a strong response, with the gold jewelry index rising by 4.56%, and companies like Western Gold and Yuguang Gold seeing stock price increases of over 9% [1] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, declining U.S. economic data, and pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed [2] - The analyst predicts that gold prices could reach between $3600 and $3800 per ounce after breaking the $3500 mark, with an expected increase of $150 to $200 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in international gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $3,470 per ounce, is attributed to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, declining U.S. economic data, and pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of September 1, spot gold reached $3,475.25 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose to $3,543.7 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing price rises of 0.59% and 0.89% respectively [1]. - The gold jewelry index in the A-share market surged by 4.77%, with companies like Western Gold and Yuguang Gold rising over 9% [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analyst Song Jiangzhen predicts that gold prices could reach between $3,600 and $3,800 per ounce, with a potential increase of $150 to $200 after surpassing $3,500 [2]. - Factors supporting the upward trend in gold prices include a declining U.S. dollar index, concerns over U.S. political stability, and preferences for gold reserves in certain U.S. states [2]. - Recent U.S. inflation data indicated a 2.9% year-over-year increase in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, reinforcing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September [3].