集运早报 研究中心能化团队 合约 昨日收盘价 其差 昨日成交昆 涨跌 FC 2512 1624.4 -0 47% -113 8 122 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | हिंदी को किसी की की की में बाद किया था। इस बार की बाद किया था। इस बार की बाद किया है कि में बाद किया है कि कि में बाद किया है कि कि किसी की किसी की किसी की बाद किया है कि क | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 道業 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1624.4 | -0.47% | -113.8 | 122 | | 2143 | -75 | | | EC2602 | | 1668.6 | -1.84% | -158.0 | 27023 | | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The mainstream shipping lines have different cargo - booking situations, leading to price differentiation. The repeated progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations has driven the far - month contracts to fluctuate upwards. The SCFIS European line index has exceeded market expectations, and it is expected that the 2510 contract on the disk will repair the discount upwards. The spot freight rate spread among mainstream shipping lines has widened again, but the off - season of container shipping is expected to gradually improve. The cargo volume on the demand side shows a seasonal decline, and the shipments from November to December are expected to gradually improve. The overall capacity from October to December changes little, with a slight increase in November. The implementation of the first - stage cease - fire agreement is tortuous, and the second - stage negotiation faces pressure. The probability of future tariff deterioration is not high [5][6] - For trading strategies, continue to hold long positions in EC2512 and maintain the idea of buying on dips. Also, continue to hold the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [8][9] 3. Summary based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Disk** - Different futures contracts have different closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interests, and open interest change rates. For example, EC2510 closed at 1,100.1, up 3.2 (0.29%) with a trading volume of 1,174.0 (down 25.70%) and an open interest of 8,396.0 (down 6.96%) [4] - **Monthly Spread Structure** - There are different price spreads and their price changes between different futures contracts. For example, the spread between EC10 - EC12 is - 582, down 24.1 [4] - **Container Freight Rates** - Different container freight rates (weekly) have different prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the SCFIS European line index is 1140.38, up 10.52% month - on - month and down 48.27% year - on - year [4] - **Fuel Costs** - The WTI crude oil near - month price is 57.22 US dollars per barrel, up 0.51% month - on - month and down 16.90% year - on - year. The Brent crude oil near - month price is 61.16 US dollars per barrel, up 0.71% month - on - month and down 16.0% year - on - year [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis** - The mainstream shipping lines' cargo - booking situations lead to price differentiation. The repeated progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations affects the far - month contracts. The SCFIS European line index has exceeded expectations. The spot freight rate spread among shipping lines has widened, but the off - season is expected to improve. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the supply side has little change in overall capacity from October to December, with a slight increase in November. The implementation of the cease - fire agreement is tortuous, and the tariff negotiation has a low probability of deterioration [5][6] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Continue to hold long positions in EC2512 and maintain the idea of buying on dips, paying attention to the implementation of the first - stage cease - fire and the second - stage negotiation in Israel - Palestine and the expected changes in shipping lines' resumption of flights [8] - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [9] 3.3 Industry News - Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks, parts, and passenger cars from November 1 [10] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided to postpone the implementation of the "Net - Zero Framework" in a special meeting, which has attracted wide attention and strong reactions from the shipping industry, governments, and environmental organizations [10] - The Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement implementation is tortuous. The Israeli army carried out retaliatory air strikes and then resumed the cease - fire. The second - stage negotiation faces pressure as Netanyahu is reluctant to promote it due to complex issues [11] - Hamas condemned Israel for closing the Rafah crossing, which it believes violates the first - stage cease - fire agreement [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC futures market is volatile, with some contracts down and some showing changes in volume and open interest. The spot price of SCFI European Line has rebounded, and shipping companies are starting to announce price increases for November. The market is concerned about the implementation of price increases and the impact of policies such as the US 301 port levy and China's special port fees for US ships [3][5]. - It is expected that the shipping company's freight rate center will move up in the second half of October. The demand side is experiencing a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the supply side has a decrease in capacity compared to the previous period. The upcoming price increase season from November to December and the implementation of port levy measures may bring cost increases and supply - chain disruptions [7][8]. - The progress of the cease - fire negotiation and resumption of flights in the Palestine - Israel conflict is expected to suppress the far - month contracts. The report provides trading strategies, including holding remaining long positions in EC2512, considering buying on dips for near - month contracts, and specific operations for arbitrage [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the EC2512 closed at 1571 points, down 6.93% from the previous day. The latest SCFI European Line reported 1068 USD/TEU, up 10% month - on - month, ending a 9 - week decline. Shipping companies such as MSK and CMA have announced price increases for November [3][5]. - **News Impact**: China will collect special port fees for US ships starting from October 14, and the US will implement the "301 Clause" measures on Chinese ships on the same day, which may affect port costs and ship deployment [6][11]. - **Container Shipment Volume**: In August 2025, the container shipment volume from Asia to Europe was 1.85 million TEU, up 11.8% year - on - year; the shipment volume from Asia to North America was 2.014 million TEU, down 12.3% year - on - year; the shipment volume from Asia to the world was 10.529 million TEU, up 4.7% year - on - year; the global container shipment volume was 16.612 million TEU, up 2.8% year - on - year [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some shipping companies have raised freight rates in the second half of October, and it is expected that the freight rate center will move up. The demand side is experiencing a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the supply side has a decrease in capacity. The cease - fire negotiation in the Palestine - Israel conflict may suppress far - month contracts [7][8]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Remaining long positions in EC2512 can be held. Consider buying on dips for the near - month contract EC2512 and operate flexibly [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Take profit on the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage at high prices; hold the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage and add positions on dips [10]. Industry News - **US Policy**: The US will implement the "301 Clause" measures on Chinese ships from October 14, which is expected to disrupt the global shipping order and increase costs for enterprises and consumers [11]. - **Maersk's Initiative**: Maersk is collaborating with 50 shipowners to retrofit about 200 chartered ships to reduce emissions, fuel costs, and improve cargo - carrying capacity, with over 1500 projects completed and 1000 in progress, expected to finish in 2027 [12]. - **Red Sea Situation**: Israel and Hamas have reached a cease - fire agreement, but the agreement has details missing, and the Houthi armed forces will closely monitor its implementation [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, with ships being launched successively. Overall, shipping companies have a high degree of maneuverability in reducing speed and suspending voyages; December - January is the long - term contract signing season. Meanwhile, the economy in Northwest Europe is deteriorating. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and short - term volatile operation is expected. The current valuation of the 04 contract is high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term. Attention should be paid to the low liquidity, which may cause short - term susceptibility to disturbances. Contracts 12 and 02 already have high valuations [3][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **EC Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 on the previous day were 1139.0, 1777.0, 1685.0, 1268.6, and 1483.5 respectively, with changes of - 2.90%, - 0.34%, - 0.66%, - 1.23%, and 0.08%. The trading volumes were 22035, 19314, 6466, 1657, and 97 respectively, and the open interests were 32431, 21695, 8768, 9099, and 938 respectively, with changes of - 3095, - 1300, 0, 142, and - 14 respectively [2][30] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512 were - 638.0, - 610.1, and - 582.1 for the previous day, two days ago, and three days ago respectively, with a daily change of - 27.9. The spreads of EC2512 - 2602 were 92.0, 86.9, and 108.4 for the previous day, two days ago, and three days ago respectively, with a daily change of 5.1 [2][30] Spot Index Information - **SCF**: Updated every Monday, as of September 22, 2025, it was 1254.92 points, showing a decline of 12.87% compared to the previous period and 8.06% compared to the period before the previous one [2][30] - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every ninth day of the week, as of September 26, 2025, it was 1401.91 points, showing a decline of 4.69% compared to the previous period [2][30] - **NCFI**: Updated every ninth day of the week, as of September 26, 2025, it was 614.14 points, showing a decline of 8.85% compared to the previous period [2][30] Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted 1500 US dollars (later increased to 1570), PA Alliance quoted between 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance quoted between 1600 - 1720 US dollars [4][32] - **Weeks 40 - 41**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted 1400 US dollars, PA quoted between 1300 - 1500 US dollars, YML quoted 1300 US dollars (the lowest price of the year), and OA quoted between 1400 - 1600 US dollars [4][32] - **Week 42**: MSK opened the cabin with a quotation of 1800 US dollars (a month - on - month increase of 400). Other shipping companies successively announced price increases to 2000 US dollars after the holiday [4][32] News - On September 29, Trump claimed that the Middle East peace agreement "will surely be reached." He was optimistic about reaching a cease - fire agreement in Gaza and would meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday to finalize the agreement framework. - On September 28, Hamas stated that it had not received a new cease - fire proposal, and the Palestine - Israel negotiations were at an impasse. - On September 28, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that the military operations in the Gaza Strip would not stop [4][32]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 10, the cargo receiving was still weak. After the market closed, MSK raised the post - holiday weekly freight rate to $1800 (+$400). Other shipping companies may follow suit before the holiday. However, the purpose of this price increase is to stabilize prices and encourage downstream shippers to book cabins before the holiday, not a real price increase. The 10 - contract can be shorted depending on the subsequent upward trend [1]. - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price increase announcements, high operation space for shipping companies to slow down and suspend voyages, and the long - term contract signing season from December to January [1]. - From a valuation perspective, the valuation of the 12 - contract is not low, but funds may be more concentrated on this contract. It is recommended to take a long - allocation approach in the short term. The 02 - contract may have higher cost - effectiveness than the 12 - contract, and its settlement price may be higher due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (February 17, 2026). The 04 - contract currently has a high valuation and is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term as an off - season contract, but its low liquidity may be easily disturbed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On September 25, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1114.4, 1696.5, 1588.1, 1261.0, and 1445.3 respectively, with daily changes of 1.31%, 4.50%, 3.42%, 2.14%, and 1.69% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602, 10 - 12, and 02 - 04 were - 582.1, 108.4, - 582.1 (- 58.7), and 327.1 (+26.1) respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 10 - contract was around 95 points [1]. Spot Market Data - **Spot Index Changes**: From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the TEU index decreased by 8.06%, the SCH index decreased by 8.84%, the CCFI (European Line) index decreased by 4.31%, and the NCFI index decreased by 7.65% [1]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was $1600 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation increased from $1500 to $1570, PA Alliance's was $1550 - $1600, and OA Alliance's was $1600 - $1720 [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK's was $1400, PA's was $1300 - $1500 (YML's $1300 was the lowest of the year), and OA's was $1400 - $1600 [2]. - **Week 42**: MSK's opening quotation was $1800 (a week - on - week increase of $400), CMA's was $2520 (+$900), and HPL's was $2035 (+$600) [2].