期货从业证号： F3084078 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 航运日报 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 1,100.1 | 3.2 | 0.29% | 1,174.0 | -25.70% | 8,396.0 | -6.96% | | EC2512 | 1,682.0 | 27.3 | 1.65% | 24,318.0 | -18.50% | 26,101.0 | 1.72% | | EC2602 | 1,522.0 | 50.0 | 3.40% | 6,950.0 | 34.66% | 10 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 1,121.1 | 1.2 | 0.11% | 6.475.0 | -58.39% | 18,352.0 | -12.73% | | EC2512 | 1,571.0 | -117.0 | -6.93% | 31,475.0 | -24.17% | 28,056.0 | 15.83% | | EC2602 | 1,338.0 | -68.0 | -4.84% | 7,164.0 | -43.98% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, with ships being launched successively. Overall, shipping companies have a high degree of maneuverability in reducing speed and suspending voyages; December - January is the long - term contract signing season. Meanwhile, the economy in Northwest Europe is deteriorating. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and short - term volatile operation is expected. The current valuation of the 04 contract is high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term. Attention should be paid to the low liquidity, which may cause short - term susceptibility to disturbances. Contracts 12 and 02 already have high valuations [3][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **EC Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 on the previous day were 1139.0, 1777.0, 1685.0, 1268.6, and 1483.5 respectively, with changes of - 2.90%, - 0.34%, - 0.66%, - 1.23%, and 0.08%. The trading volumes were 22035, 19314, 6466, 1657, and 97 respectively, and the open interests were 32431, 21695, 8768, 9099, and 938 respectively, with changes of - 3095, - 1300, 0, 142, and - 14 respectively [2][30] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512 were - 638.0, - 610.1, and - 582.1 for the previous day, two days ago, and three days ago respectively, with a daily change of - 27.9. The spreads of EC2512 - 2602 were 92.0, 86.9, and 108.4 for the previous day, two days ago, and three days ago respectively, with a daily change of 5.1 [2][30] Spot Index Information - **SCF**: Updated every Monday, as of September 22, 2025, it was 1254.92 points, showing a decline of 12.87% compared to the previous period and 8.06% compared to the period before the previous one [2][30] - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every ninth day of the week, as of September 26, 2025, it was 1401.91 points, showing a decline of 4.69% compared to the previous period [2][30] - **NCFI**: Updated every ninth day of the week, as of September 26, 2025, it was 614.14 points, showing a decline of 8.85% compared to the previous period [2][30] Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted 1500 US dollars (later increased to 1570), PA Alliance quoted between 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance quoted between 1600 - 1720 US dollars [4][32] - **Weeks 40 - 41**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted 1400 US dollars, PA quoted between 1300 - 1500 US dollars, YML quoted 1300 US dollars (the lowest price of the year), and OA quoted between 1400 - 1600 US dollars [4][32] - **Week 42**: MSK opened the cabin with a quotation of 1800 US dollars (a month - on - month increase of 400). Other shipping companies successively announced price increases to 2000 US dollars after the holiday [4][32] News - On September 29, Trump claimed that the Middle East peace agreement "will surely be reached." He was optimistic about reaching a cease - fire agreement in Gaza and would meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday to finalize the agreement framework. - On September 28, Hamas stated that it had not received a new cease - fire proposal, and the Palestine - Israel negotiations were at an impasse. - On September 28, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that the military operations in the Gaza Strip would not stop [4][32]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 10, the cargo receiving was still weak. After the market closed, MSK raised the post - holiday weekly freight rate to $1800 (+$400). Other shipping companies may follow suit before the holiday. However, the purpose of this price increase is to stabilize prices and encourage downstream shippers to book cabins before the holiday, not a real price increase. The 10 - contract can be shorted depending on the subsequent upward trend [1]. - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price increase announcements, high operation space for shipping companies to slow down and suspend voyages, and the long - term contract signing season from December to January [1]. - From a valuation perspective, the valuation of the 12 - contract is not low, but funds may be more concentrated on this contract. It is recommended to take a long - allocation approach in the short term. The 02 - contract may have higher cost - effectiveness than the 12 - contract, and its settlement price may be higher due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (February 17, 2026). The 04 - contract currently has a high valuation and is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term as an off - season contract, but its low liquidity may be easily disturbed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On September 25, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1114.4, 1696.5, 1588.1, 1261.0, and 1445.3 respectively, with daily changes of 1.31%, 4.50%, 3.42%, 2.14%, and 1.69% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602, 10 - 12, and 02 - 04 were - 582.1, 108.4, - 582.1 (- 58.7), and 327.1 (+26.1) respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 10 - contract was around 95 points [1]. Spot Market Data - **Spot Index Changes**: From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the TEU index decreased by 8.06%, the SCH index decreased by 8.84%, the CCFI (European Line) index decreased by 4.31%, and the NCFI index decreased by 7.65% [1]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was $1600 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation increased from $1500 to $1570, PA Alliance's was $1550 - $1600, and OA Alliance's was $1600 - $1720 [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK's was $1400, PA's was $1300 - $1500 (YML's $1300 was the lowest of the year), and OA's was $1400 - $1600 [2]. - **Week 42**: MSK's opening quotation was $1800 (a week - on - week increase of $400), CMA's was $2520 (+$900), and HPL's was $2035 (+$600) [2].