【逻辑】 昨日期货盘面震荡，主力10合约收1358点，上涨3.74%%。昨日SCFIS欧线大幅下跌，或对市场多头情 绪产生打压。现货端虽CMA平开10月份报价，但是整体现货价格仍在下行，ONE今日继续大幅下调报 价，现货报价的下行将对盘面产生一定压力。 【操作建议】 预计偏弱震荡，10合约空单继续持有。 【现货报价】 截至8月26日最新报价；马士基：1290-1599美元/TEU，2160-2578美元/TEU；CMA 1360-1910美 元/TEU，2320-2920美元/TEU；MSC 1550-1556 美元/TEU，2590-2602 美元/TEU；ONE 1504-1804美 元/TEU，2343美元/TEU；EMC 1605-1805美元/TEU，2410-2760美元/TEU。报价数据近期缓慢下跌。 【集运指数】 截至8月25日，SCFIS欧线指数报1990.2点，环比下跌8.71%，美西线指数环比下跌5.87% 至1041.38点。 截至8月22日，SCFI综合指数报1415.36点，较上期跌3%；上海-欧洲运价下跌8%至1668美元/TEU；上 海-美西运价1644美元/FEU，较上周跌7 ...

Pricing Information - As of July 28, 2023, the spot rates for major shipping lines are as follows: Maersk: $1769-$2123/TEU, $2958-$3466/TEU; CMA: $1935-$2285/TEU, $3445-$4145/TEU; MSC: $2060-$2163/TEU, $3440-$3646/TEU; ONE: $2324/TEU, $3143/TEU; EMC: $2455/TEU, $3760/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of July 28, 2023, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2316.56 points, a decrease of 3.5% week-on-week. The US West Coast index fell by 46.98% to 1284.01 points. The SCFI composite index as of July 25, 2023, is at 1592.59 points, down 3.3%. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate increased by 0.53% to $2090/TEU, while the Shanghai-US West Coast rate is $2067/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous week. The Shanghai-US East Coast rate is $3378/FEU, down 6.48% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of July 28, 2023, the global container shipping capacity exceeds 32.7 million TEU, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's June composite PMI is at 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0. The US June manufacturing PMI is at 49, with a new orders index of 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3] Market Logic - The futures market experienced fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1502.8 points, down 1.62%, and the August contract at 2183.2, down 1.33%. Major shipping companies have set August prices, reducing uncertainty, and a fluctuating market is expected. Short-term spot prices are not anticipated to have significant volatility, while a gradual decline is expected in the medium to long term due to current prices being at a seasonal peak [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2510 and far - month contracts have seen a significant increase recently. The reasons include the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market conditions and European port congestion, and some influence from geopolitical factors. The current situation of the European line is stable reality and weak expectation, and the spot price is expected to enter an arc - top trend from late July to early August. [7][8][9] - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1647, a previous value of 1733, and a decline of 4.98%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1304, a previous value of 1314, and a decline of 0.78%. Other regional indices also show different degrees of rise and fall. [4] - **EC Contracts**: Different EC contracts have different current values, previous values, and changes in prices and positions. For example, the EC2508 contract has a current value of 2291.9, a previous value of 2265.9, and an increase of 1.15%, with a position change of - 879. [4] Trade News - The US has reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, while US goods entering Indonesia are tax - exempt. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU next month, and the EU is negotiating and drafting counter - measures. India is seeking lower tariffs in trade talks with the US, and Trump hinted at a "pretty good agreement". The deadline for sanctions against Russia may come earlier than 50 days. [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short - term, there may still be a rush to ship in July. After the deep discount on the futures market is repaired, investors are advised not to chase high prices. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread. [9][10]

Pricing Information - As of June 25, the spot rates for Maersk are between $1,767 and $1,777 per TEU, and $2,950 to $2,976 per TEU; CMA rates range from $2,035 to $2,385 per TEU, and $3,645 to $4,345 per TEU; MSC rates are $1,940 to $2,180 per TEU, and $3,640 per TEU; ONE rates are between $2,604 and $3,094 per TEU, and $3,343 to $4,043 per TEU; EMC rates range from $2,100 to $2,655 per TEU, and $3,100 to $4,060 per TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of June 23, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 1,937.14 points, a 14% increase week-on-week, while the West Coast of the US index decreased by 28% to 2,083.46 points; as of June 27, the SCFI composite index is at 1,861.51 points, down 0.4% from the previous period; Shanghai to Europe freight rates increased by 10% to $2,030 per TEU; Shanghai to West Coast freight rates are $2,578 per FEU, down 7% from the previous week; Shanghai to East Coast freight rates are $4,717 per FEU, down 12% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of June 24, the global container shipping capacity stands at 32.57 million TEU, an 8.2% increase year-on-year; in terms of demand, the Eurozone's May composite PMI is at 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 49.7; the US May manufacturing PMI is at 48.5, with the new orders index at 47.6; the OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.32 in May [3] Market Logic - The futures market saw a decline yesterday, with the main August contract closing at 1,761 points, down 2.42%; currently, there is a reduction in the price divergence for July, with large box quotes ranging from $3,635 to $4,645 per TEU, which is slightly higher than the first half of the year; a significant price drop in August is considered unlikely, and airlines may initially set higher August quotes before adjusting based on actual transaction conditions, necessitating close monitoring of price trends [4] Operational Recommendations - The market is advised to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach, with expectations for the main index to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping over 6%, indicating a bearish trend in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 24, the shipping index (European line) futures fell to a low of 1746.4 points, closing at 1784.1 points, reflecting a decline of 6.36% [1]. - The latest SCFIS European line index recorded 1937.14 points, showing a slight increase of 14.1 points from the previous period [2][3]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Shipping companies are showing signs of price adjustments, with Hapag-Lloyd reducing July mid-month rates from $2635/$4335 to $2435/$3835, representing decreases of 8% and 12% for small and large containers, respectively [2]. - CMA CGM has also adjusted its rates downwards, indicating that booking conditions are not meeting expectations, with a notable price reduction of $15 and $45 for different container types [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with expectations of continued downward pressure on the shipping index due to oversupply and weak demand [2][3]. - The geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, with reports of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, which may reduce the impact on the shipping market [2][3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The EC2508 contract is expected to face strong resistance above the 2000-point mark, with a bearish trend likely to persist in the short term [3]. - Key support levels for EC2508 are identified around 1800 points, with expectations for the EC2506 delivery price to be below 1850 points [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Before the festival, the EC of the container shipping European line slightly declined, with the 08 contract closing at 2075.3 points. The SCFI European line announced after the market was $1587/TEU, a week - on - week increase of $270/TEU, reflecting the price increase by shipping companies in early June. After some shipping companies slightly raised prices, the average online price of 40 - foot containers of shipping companies in the second week of June increased to around $2560, corresponding to an SCFIS European line of 1750 points, at a discount of 100 - 200 points to the current 06 contract, including the market's expectation of a slight price increase in the following period of June. Due to the lack of capacity adjustment by shipping companies and the delayed start of the peak season, the upside of the 08 - contract freight rate is under pressure. As the traditional peak season approaches and the capacity put into operation in the second and third weeks of June drops below 250,000 TEU, it is expected that shipping companies will still raise prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level long - allocation opportunities after the market returns to the realistic anchor [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest trading price of EC2506 is 1834.8 points, with a latest increase of 1.01%. The trading volume is 7355, and the unilateral open interest is 11037. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 7599, the short - position open interest is 8121, and the net long position is - 522 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2508 is 2075.3 points, with a latest decrease of 0.25%. The trading volume is 102747, and the unilateral open interest is 41824. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 22228, the short - position open interest is 23430, and the net long position is - 1202 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2510 is 1346.4 points, with a latest decrease of 3.65%. The trading volume is 14781, and the unilateral open interest is 23127 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2512 is 1527.6 points, with a latest decrease of 2.73%. The trading volume is 1709, and the unilateral open interest is 4410 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2602 is 1368 points, with a latest decrease of 2.76%. The trading volume is 917, and the unilateral open interest is 2783 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2604 is 1200 points, with a latest decrease of 2.91%. The trading volume is 738, and the unilateral open interest is 3283 [2]. - The total trading volume is 128247, and the total unilateral open interest is 86464. The total long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 29827, the total short - position open interest is 31551, and the total net long position is - 1724 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rate - European Route - The latest SCFIS index is 1252.82 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The latest SCFI is $1587/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 20.5% [2]. - The latest TCI(20GP) is $1493/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4%. The latest TCI(40GP) is $2404/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.9% [2]. - The previous day's basis was - 828.25 points, and the day before that was - 883.95 points, with a week - on - week increase of 55.7 points [2]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - The capacity put into operation on the Asia - Europe route is 512501 TEU, with no week - on - week increase. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, 17000TEU + container ships, 12000 - 16999TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.9%, 1.3%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. - The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots. The average speed of 17000TEU + container ships is 15.65 knots, and that of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships is 15.37 knots [5]. - The in - port capacity in Rotterdam is 187,700 TEU, in Hamburg Port is 79,200 TEU, and in Singapore is 350,200 TEU [5]. - The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 16, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [5]. - The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships are $103,000/day, $68,000/day, and $34,500/day respectively [5].