Group 1 - The main contract of the European shipping index futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1694.6 points, with a current report of 1678.0 points, reflecting a rise of 4.20% [1] - The strong performance of the EC2602 contract is expected to continue, supported by robust export data from China, particularly a 14.83% year-on-year increase in exports to the EU in November [1] - The SCFIS European line index showed a slight week-on-week increase of 1.72%, while the NCFI European line index rose by 7.67%, indicating a rebound in freight rates [1] Group 2 - The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded, and shipping companies are raising their quotes, which is boosting market sentiment for price increases [2] - Major shipping companies, including Maersk and HPL, have announced price hikes for container shipping, which may stimulate market expectations for price increases ahead of the Chinese New Year [2] - There is a focus on the potential for a positive spread opportunity between the February and April contracts, as the market may be influenced by seasonal demand and pricing strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1574.4 points, with a current report of 1565.7 points, reflecting a rise of 2.07% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The shipping index's recent rebound is perceived to have limited upward potential due to various market pressures, including geopolitical events and weak consumer demand in Europe and the U.S. [2] - The latest SCFIS European line index stands at 1483.65 points, showing a week-on-week decline of 9.50%, indicating a partial reversal of previous gains [2] - The SCFI European line freight rate was reported at $1404 per TEU, with a week-on-week increase of 2.71%, but overall freight rates remain under pressure due to declining sales orders during the U.S. "Black Friday" [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - There is a focus on potential trading opportunities between February and April, with the market possibly overestimating short-term prices, particularly in light of the delayed Chinese New Year [3] - The shipping companies' pricing strategies, particularly Maersk's aggressive pricing, may limit the ability of other carriers to raise rates, impacting overall market dynamics [3] - The upcoming seasonal demand leading to the Chinese New Year may create incentives for shipping companies to adjust their pricing strategies, with a potential focus on the February-April contracts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European shipping index futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1843.5 points, with a current report of 1816.7 points, reflecting a rise of 2.10% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 10, the SCFIS European line index recorded 1504.8, a month-on-month increase of 24.5%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The main contract's price is influenced by capital dynamics, with cautious operations recommended [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI data for October showed a significant seasonal decline, with the new export orders index dropping by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9, indicating a fragile recovery in terminal transportation demand [3] - The German economy outperformed expectations, boosting market confidence and stimulating a recovery in the Eurozone economy [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, remains delicate and unstable, delaying expectations for the reopening of the Red Sea [3] - There is a potential for improvement in trade tensions and a significant easing of geopolitical conflicts, which could positively impact the shipping market [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the shipping industry. 2. Core View - Mainstream shipping companies have initiated price increase announcements for the second half of November, boosting the EC futures market. The spot freight rate decline slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly due to changes in the settlement index rhythm caused by vessel rolling and delays in late October. It is expected that the spot freight rate will gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies may continue to announce price increases. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section I. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance** - On November 4, 2025, EC2512 closed at 1909.9 points, up 3.14% from the previous day. The SCFIS European line index reported on November 4 was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% week - on - week, while the SCFI European line reported on October 31 was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% week - on - week [6][7]. - Shipping companies such as CMA, HPL, and MSC have announced price increases for the second half of November, with targets between $3000 - 3100/FEU [7]. - **Logic Analysis** - Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise. For example, HPL plans to raise the price to $3100 in the second half of November from around $2000 in the first half. CMA announced a price increase to $3000/FEU in the second half of November and set the online price at $3500 in December [8]. - From the fundamental perspective, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in October, November, and December is 241,100 TEU, 260,400 TEU, and 289,200 TEU respectively, with a slight increase in December [8]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral trading: Wait and see as the market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance, and short - term fluctuations are expected while waiting for the implementation of price increases [9]. - Arbitrage trading: Wait and see [10]. II. Industry News - Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has a fleet capacity of over 7 million TEU, accounting for 21.2% of the market share [11]. - The third - quarter corrugated carton shipments in the US fell to the lowest level since 2015, intensifying concerns about the holiday sales season [11]. - China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [11]. - Diplomatic responses were made regarding the potential US tariff increase on China and the situation in the Israel - Palestine conflict [11][12]. III. Related Attachments The report includes figures such as the SCFIS European line index and SCFIS US - West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, and other institutions [15][17][20].

Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The long - term filling of mainstream shipping companies is good, but the spot market cargo collection is average. The spot price difference among shipping companies has widened, and the market continues to play a game on the subsequent freight rate trend. The EC market maintains a volatile trend. On November 3rd, EC2512 closed at 1851.7 points, up 2.64% from the previous day's closing price. On October 31st, the SCFI European line reported $1344/TEU, up 7.9% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1208.71 points after the market today, down 7.9% month - on - month, with the spot decline slightly exceeding market expectations [7]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. It is expected that the spot freight rates from November to December are expected to gradually increase, and shipping companies are expected to continue to announce price increases. From the fundamental perspective, on the demand side, shipments from November to December are expected to gradually improve, and the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm needs to be concerned. On the supply side, from October to December 2025 and January 2026, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports is 233,600/266,200/293,900/296,100 TEU respectively. After the China - US meeting, the tariff reduction and the extension of the 301 port service fee require tracking of the shipping companies' cargo collection performance [8]. - Unilateral trading strategy: The market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance. It is expected that there will be short - term volatility to determine the extent of the price increase. Temporarily stay on the sidelines. Arbitrage strategy: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Industry News - Since November 10, 2025, the compound tariff rate on Chinese - imported goods imposed by the US will be reduced by 10%, and the current suspension period of additional tariffs on China will be extended to November 10, 2026 (the current 10% benchmark tariff rate remains unchanged during the suspension period) [11]. - The US will extend the validity period of some "Section 301" tariff exemption measures originally due to expire on November 29, 2025, to November 10, 2026 [11]. - Since November 10, 2025, the US will suspend the implementation of the policy of "expanding the scope of end - user control for related parties of specific list entities" for one year [11]. - Since November 10, 2025, the US will suspend the implementation of measures taken based on the "Section 301" investigation of China's shipbuilding industry for one year. During this period, the US will continue consultations with China in accordance with Article 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and maintain historical cooperation with South Korea and Japan in revitalizing the US shipbuilding industry [11]. Market Data Futures Market - For EC2512, the closing price is 1851.7, up 47.7 points or 2.64% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 18,824 lots (down 68.37%) and an open interest of 29,320 lots (down 6.52%). For EC2602, the closing price is 1592.2, up 38.6 points or 2.48%, with a trading volume of 5,040 lots (down 55.74%) and an open interest of 18,781 lots (up 1.77%). Similar data are provided for other contracts such as EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 [6]. - In the month - spread structure, for example, the spread between EC12 and EC02 is 260, up 9.1 points; the spread between EC12 and EC04 is 667, up 24.4 points [6]. Container Freight Rates - The SCFIS European line index is 1208.71 points, down 7.92% week - on - week and 46.48% year - on - year; the SCFIS US West line index is 1267.15 points, up 14.43% week - on - week and down 54.40% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1550.70 points, up 10.49% week - on - week and down 29.04% year - on - year. Other routes' freight rates and their changes are also presented [6]. Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract is $60.49 per barrel, up 0.87% week - on - week and down 12.26% year - on - year; the price of Brent crude oil near - month contract is $64.58 per barrel, up 0.86% week - on - week and down 11.1% year - on - year [6].

Group 1: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The Sino-US tariff negotiation has reached a preliminary consensus, and the EC futures market continues to bet on the subsequent freight rate trend. Pay attention to the possible improvement of tariffs on shipments. On October 27, EC2512 closed at 1775 points, down 3.06% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line index released after the market today was 1312.71 points, up 15.11% month-on-month [6]. - The spot freight rate spread among major shipping companies has widened again. Considering the improvement of long-term contract cargo receipts, the spot freight rate center is expected to gradually rise. It is expected that the spot freight rate will gradually increase from November to December, and shipping companies are expected to continue to announce price increases [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for shipments is expected to gradually improve from November to December. The supply capacity in December will increase slightly. The Sino-US ship sanctions will bring cost increases and short-term supply chain disruptions. The progress of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East is tortuous, and the Sino-US tariff negotiation sentiment has eased [7][9]. - Trading strategy: Hold the long position of EC2512 and pay attention to the Palestine-Israel negotiation, Sino-US tariff negotiation, and port congestion. For arbitrage, take a wait-and-see approach [10][11]. Group 2: Industry News - Sino-US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and reached a preliminary consensus on issues such as export control, suspension and extension of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl, and ship fees [12]. - The United States signed a critical minerals agreement with Thailand and will maintain a 19% tariff on Thailand; reached a trade agreement framework with Vietnam and will maintain a 20% tariff on Vietnam; Trump suspended tariffs during the meeting with the Brazilian president [12]. - The United States threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on Canada, and Canada expressed dissatisfaction [12]. - Israel approved the entry of an Egyptian technical team to search for hostages, and Palestinian factions agreed to establish an independent technical bureaucracy to govern the Gaza Strip, and Hamas will transfer administrative control to a temporary committee [13][14][15]. Group 3: Data Summary Futures Disk | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (Lots) | Increase/Decrease Rate | Open Interest (Lots) | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1,130.9 | -6.9 | -0.61% | 1,377.0 | 68.54% | 3,428.0 | -20.13% | | EC2512 | 1,775.0 | -56.0 | -3.06% | 27,748.0 | -20.98% | 27,995.0 | -7.45% | | EC2602 | 1,571.6 | -29.4 | -1.84% | 6,174.0 | 55.48% | 13,138.0 | 14.15% | | EC2604 | 1,178.8 | -0.8 | -0.07% | 2,045.0 | 18.48% | 14,146.0 | -0.55% | | EC2606 | 1,387.1 | -10.8 | -0.77% | 109 | -61.75% | 1,371 | -0.44% | | EC2608 | 1,480.3 | -28.7 | -1.90% | 138 | -22.91% | 1,249 | 2.63% | [4] Monthly Spread Structure | Spread | Change | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC10 - EC12 | -644 | 49.1 | EC10 - EC02 | -441 | 22.5 | | EC12 - EC02 | 203 | -26.6 | EC10 - EC04 | -48 | -6.1 | | EC12 - EC04 | 596 | -55.2 | EC12 - EC06 | 388 | -45.2 | | EC02 - EC04 | 393 | -28.6 | EC04 - EC06 | -208 | 10.0 | [4] Container Freight Rates | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS European Line (Points) | 1312.71 | 15.11% | -40.54% | SCFIS US West Line (Points) | 1107.32 | 28.24% | -60.70% | | SCFI: Composite Index | 1403.46 | 7.11% | -31.94% | SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) | 3755 | 5.64% | -15.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US West (USD/FEU) | 2153 | 11.21% | -54.44% | SCFI: Shanghai - South Africa (USD/TEU) | 2851 | 1.40% | -32.98% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US East (USD/FEU) | 3032 | 6.27% | -38.98% | SCFI: Shanghai - South America (USD/TEU) | 2619 | -1.47% | -58.00% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Europe (USD/TEU) | 1246 | 8.82% | -36.10% | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kansai (USD/TEU) | 312 | 0.00% | 3.31% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Mediterranean (USD/TEU) | 1764 | 9.36% | -23.70% | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kanto (USD/TEU) | 321 | 0.00% | 5.59% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Persian Gulf (USD/TEU) | 1423 | 14.02% | 19.28% | SCFI: Shanghai - Southeast Asia (USD/TEU) | 466 | 3.79% | 10.95% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Melbourne (USD/TEU) | 1385 | 5.64% | -31.64% | SCFI: Shanghai - South Korea (USD/TEU) | 138 | 0.00% | -4.17% | [4] Fuel Costs | WTI Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | Brent Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 60.86 | | -0.38% | -14.59% | 64.92 | -0.52% | -14.0% | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The mainstream shipping lines have different cargo - booking situations, leading to price differentiation. The repeated progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations has driven the far - month contracts to fluctuate upwards. The SCFIS European line index has exceeded market expectations, and it is expected that the 2510 contract on the disk will repair the discount upwards. The spot freight rate spread among mainstream shipping lines has widened again, but the off - season of container shipping is expected to gradually improve. The cargo volume on the demand side shows a seasonal decline, and the shipments from November to December are expected to gradually improve. The overall capacity from October to December changes little, with a slight increase in November. The implementation of the first - stage cease - fire agreement is tortuous, and the second - stage negotiation faces pressure. The probability of future tariff deterioration is not high [5][6] - For trading strategies, continue to hold long positions in EC2512 and maintain the idea of buying on dips. Also, continue to hold the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [8][9] 3. Summary based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Disk** - Different futures contracts have different closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interests, and open interest change rates. For example, EC2510 closed at 1,100.1, up 3.2 (0.29%) with a trading volume of 1,174.0 (down 25.70%) and an open interest of 8,396.0 (down 6.96%) [4] - **Monthly Spread Structure** - There are different price spreads and their price changes between different futures contracts. For example, the spread between EC10 - EC12 is - 582, down 24.1 [4] - **Container Freight Rates** - Different container freight rates (weekly) have different prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the SCFIS European line index is 1140.38, up 10.52% month - on - month and down 48.27% year - on - year [4] - **Fuel Costs** - The WTI crude oil near - month price is 57.22 US dollars per barrel, up 0.51% month - on - month and down 16.90% year - on - year. The Brent crude oil near - month price is 61.16 US dollars per barrel, up 0.71% month - on - month and down 16.0% year - on - year [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis** - The mainstream shipping lines' cargo - booking situations lead to price differentiation. The repeated progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations affects the far - month contracts. The SCFIS European line index has exceeded expectations. The spot freight rate spread among shipping lines has widened, but the off - season is expected to improve. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the supply side has little change in overall capacity from October to December, with a slight increase in November. The implementation of the cease - fire agreement is tortuous, and the tariff negotiation has a low probability of deterioration [5][6] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Continue to hold long positions in EC2512 and maintain the idea of buying on dips, paying attention to the implementation of the first - stage cease - fire and the second - stage negotiation in Israel - Palestine and the expected changes in shipping lines' resumption of flights [8] - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [9] 3.3 Industry News - Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks, parts, and passenger cars from November 1 [10] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided to postpone the implementation of the "Net - Zero Framework" in a special meeting, which has attracted wide attention and strong reactions from the shipping industry, governments, and environmental organizations [10] - The Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement implementation is tortuous. The Israeli army carried out retaliatory air strikes and then resumed the cease - fire. The second - stage negotiation faces pressure as Netanyahu is reluctant to promote it due to complex issues [11] - Hamas condemned Israel for closing the Rafah crossing, which it believes violates the first - stage cease - fire agreement [11][12]

Pricing Information - As of August 26, the latest spot quotes for shipping are as follows: Maersk: $1290-$1599/TEU, $2160-$2578/TEU; CMA: $1360-$1910/TEU, $2320-$2920/TEU; MSC: $1550-$1556/TEU, $2590-$2602/TEU; ONE: $1504-$1804/TEU, $2343/TEU; EMC: $1605-$1805/TEU, $2410-$2760/TEU. The pricing data has shown a gradual decline recently [1]. Shipping Index - As of August 25, the SCFIS European line index reported 1990.2 points, a week-on-week decrease of 8.71%. The US West Coast index fell by 5.87% to 1041.38 points. The SCFI composite index as of August 22 was 1415.36 points, down 3% from the previous period. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate decreased by 8% to $1668/TEU, while the Shanghai-US West Coast rate was $1644/FEU, down 7% from the previous week. The Shanghai-US East Coast rate was $2613/FEU, down 4% from the previous week [2]. Market Fundamentals - As of August 25, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 32.9 million TEU, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's July composite PMI was 50.9, with a manufacturing PMI of 49.8 and a services PMI of 51.0. The US July manufacturing PMI index was 48, with a new orders index of 47.1. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3]. Market Logic - The futures market experienced fluctuations yesterday, with the main contract closing at 1358 points, an increase of 3.74%. The significant drop in the SCFIS European line may have dampened market bullish sentiment. Although CMA opened with October quotes, the overall spot prices continue to decline, and ONE has further reduced its quotes today. The downward trend in spot pricing is expected to exert pressure on the futures market [4].

Pricing Information - As of August 4, the spot prices for container shipping are as follows: Maersk: $1705-$1846/TEU, $2850-$3102/TEU; CMA: $1935-$2635/TEU, $3445-$4345/TEU; MSC: $2000-$2163/TEU, $3340-$3646/TEU; ONE: $2194/TEU, $2943/TEU; EMC: $2355-$2455/TEU, $3560-$3760/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of August 4, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2297.86 points, a decrease of 0.81% month-on-month; the US West Coast index decreased by 11.99% to 1130.12 points. The SCFI composite index as of August 1 is 1550.74 points, down 2.63%. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate decreased by 1.87% to $2051/TEU; Shanghai-US West freight rate is $2021/FEU, down 2.23% from last week; Shanghai-US East freight rate is $3126/FEU, down 7.46% from last week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of August 4, the global container shipping capacity exceeds 32.7 million TEU, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's June composite PMI is 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0; the US June manufacturing PMI is 49, with new orders index at 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3] Market Logic - The futures market experienced fluctuations with the main contract closing at 1421.8 points, down 0.72%; the August contract closed at 2122.3, up 0.38%. The market is currently in a phase of slow decline in spot prices, lacking strong driving forces in the fundamentals. The short-term outlook for the main contract is expected to show a weak oscillating pattern [4]

Pricing Information - As of July 28, 2023, the spot rates for major shipping lines are as follows: Maersk: $1769-$2123/TEU, $2958-$3466/TEU; CMA: $1935-$2285/TEU, $3445-$4145/TEU; MSC: $2060-$2163/TEU, $3440-$3646/TEU; ONE: $2324/TEU, $3143/TEU; EMC: $2455/TEU, $3760/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of July 28, 2023, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2316.56 points, a decrease of 3.5% week-on-week. The US West Coast index fell by 46.98% to 1284.01 points. The SCFI composite index as of July 25, 2023, is at 1592.59 points, down 3.3%. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate increased by 0.53% to $2090/TEU, while the Shanghai-US West Coast rate is $2067/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous week. The Shanghai-US East Coast rate is $3378/FEU, down 6.48% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of July 28, 2023, the global container shipping capacity exceeds 32.7 million TEU, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's June composite PMI is at 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0. The US June manufacturing PMI is at 49, with a new orders index of 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3] Market Logic - The futures market experienced fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1502.8 points, down 1.62%, and the August contract at 2183.2, down 1.33%. Major shipping companies have set August prices, reducing uncertainty, and a fluctuating market is expected. Short-term spot prices are not anticipated to have significant volatility, while a gradual decline is expected in the medium to long term due to current prices being at a seasonal peak [4]