CPCA reports 1-18 January numbers: EV retail down 16% YoY, wholesale down 23% YoY ab Global Research owered by UBS Evidence Lab YES P The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported January 1-18 January 2026 retail EV sales volume of 312k units, down -16% YoY and -52% MoM, while wholesale EV volume declined to 348k, down -23% YoY and -46% MoM. The early numbers show signs of continued weakening, which adds more pressure to the 2026 demand outlook. UBS Evidence Lab's China Auto Model Search Monitor (> Ac ...

DAVOS, Schweiz, 25. Januar 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Leading The Charge - Turning risk into reward with a circular economy for EV batteries and critical minerals, (Vorreiterrolle – Risiken in Chancen verwandeln mit einer Kreislaufwirtschaft für EV-Batterien und kritische Mineralien), ein Whitepaper, das von der Ellen MacArthur Foundation während des Weltwirtschaftsforums 2026 veröffentlicht wurde, ist die erste integrierte, umsetzbare Roadmap für eine Kreislauf-Wertschöpfungskette für EV-Batterien, die auf der r ...

Flash | | Top players by types of cells details (GWh) | NCM | | | LFP | | | Total | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Dec-25 Jan-26 | | MoM | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | MoM | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | MoM | | Company A | 24.0 | 20.0 | -17% | 60.0 | 56.0 | -7% | 84.0 | 76.0 | -10% | | Company B | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0% | 27.0 | 26.0 | -4% | 27.3 | 26.3 | -4% | | Company C | 2.0 | 1.9 | -5% | 11.0 | 10.5 | -5% | 13.0 | 12.4 | -5% | | Company D | 0.9 | 0.9 | -6% | 9.0 | 8.5 | -6% | 9.9 | 9.4 | -6% | ...

Group 1 - Meta is acquiring AI startup Mattis for $2 billion, marking its entry into the AI agent market [1][2] - The acquisition positions Meta to compete with Microsoft's co-pilot and Salesforce's Agent Force, indicating a growing urgency in the AI sector [2][8] - Meta has approximately $45 billion in cash, suggesting it has the financial capacity to pursue such acquisitions [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 has historically averaged gains of 1.3% during the holiday season, with positive returns occurring about 78% of the time [4] - There is a notable trend of cash accumulation among S&P companies, with a total of about $7 trillion in cash available [7] - The market is experiencing a rotation and profit-taking, particularly in AI-related stocks, as concerns about an AI bubble persist [27][28] Group 3 - The acquisition of Mattis is seen as a strategic move for Meta to enhance its AI capabilities, which currently lack foundational applications [10][11] - Analysts suggest that the deal reflects a broader trend of companies opting for mergers and acquisitions to expedite technology development rather than building in-house [8][9] - The startup's advanced AI capabilities, which include sophisticated functions beyond simple chatbots, are expected to significantly enhance Meta's offerings [13][14] Group 4 - Mining companies are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to rising metal prices and increased demand driven by geopolitical factors [21][23] - The U.S. has placed silver on its critical minerals list, indicating a strategic focus on securing resources amid global competition [22] - Analysts predict that the days of cheap silver are over, with significant price increases expected in the metals market [21][25]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Battery Supply Chain**, particularly the **battery materials industry** and **electric vehicle (EV) battery production** [1][3]. Key Insights - **Production Trends**: The production pipeline of the top five battery makers is expected to remain flat month-over-month (MoM) and show a 48% year-over-year (YoY) increase, reaching approximately **148 GWh** in December 2025 [1][3]. - **EV Battery Demand**: There is a noted decline in EV battery production due to: 1. The approach of a traditional slack season. 2. The consumption of front-loading demand as China plans to halve the purchase tax exemption for EVs starting January 1, 2026 [1]. - **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)**: Demand for ESS batteries remains strong, which is helping to offset the downturn in EV battery demand [1]. - **CATL's Production**: CATL, a leading battery manufacturer, is projected to increase its production pipeline by **4% MoM** in December 2025, indicating robust operational capacity [1]. Financial Valuation - **CATL Valuation**: - The target price for CATL's Hong Kong shares is set at **HK$621/share**, based on a **17.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA** multiple, which is 0.15 standard deviations above its historical average [8]. - For CATL's A-shares, the target price is **Rmb571/share**, also based on a **17.3x 2026E EV/EBITDA** multiple [10]. Risks Identified - The report highlights several risks that could impact CATL's stock performance: 1. Lower-than-expected demand for EVs. 2. Increased competition in the EV battery market, potentially reducing CATL's market share. 3. Higher-than-expected raw material costs [9][10]. Production Forecasts - **Cathode Production**: Expected to increase by **1% MoM** [4]. - **Anode Production**: Anticipated to remain flat MoM [5]. Conclusion - The China battery materials industry is currently experiencing a mixed landscape with strong ESS demand counterbalancing the seasonal decline in EV battery production. CATL remains a key player with positive production forecasts and a solid valuation outlook, although it faces significant risks that could affect its market position and stock performance [1][9][10].

Core Insights - The COP30 climate talks in Belém, Brazil, have highlighted the "social and environmental risks" associated with the minerals necessary for the green transition, indicating a desire for electrification without the extensive mining typically required [1][2] - The political implications of mineral supply chains for electric vehicles (EVs), solar farms, and grid batteries have become more pronounced, signaling a shift in investor sentiment [2][6] Industry Implications - Indigenous groups from Argentina have raised concerns about the environmental impact of lithium extraction, which is critical for EV batteries, stressing the need for sustainable practices [3][4] - U.S.-listed mining companies such as Albemarle Corp, Lithium Americas Corp, and Sociedad Quimica y Minr de Chile SA are now viewed as part of a supply chain that requires reform, rather than mere expansion, due to the COP30 discussions [4][5] - The demand for minerals like lithium, nickel, and graphite is essential for companies like Tesla, while others in the solar sector, such as First Solar Inc and Enphase Energy Inc, depend on metals like copper and silver [5] Financial Considerations - If the discussions at COP30 lead to new policies or procurement guidelines, the cost structures and permitting processes for clean-tech minerals may undergo significant changes, impacting the financial outlook for companies reliant on these resources [6] - The political sensitivity surrounding lithium producers has increased, placing them on par with oil producers in terms of scrutiny, which could affect stock valuations and growth assumptions tied to mineral availability [7]

Summary of Global Energy Storage Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The global energy storage sector experienced a robust third quarter, with total demand increasing by 46% year-over-year (y-o-y) despite a 6% decline in average selling prices (ASP) [1][8] - Total battery demand reached 466 GWh in 3Q25, with a cumulative 1,209 GWh for the first nine months of 2025, marking a 50% y-o-y increase [1][17] - Energy Storage System (ESS) batteries saw an impressive growth of 85% y-o-y, contributing nearly 50% of the incremental battery demand, surpassing electric vehicles (EVs) in growth contribution [1][8] Key Companies and Performance CATL - CATL's EV battery installations grew by 17% y-o-y in 3Q25, but its market share declined to 32.2% from 33.8% in the first nine months of 2025 [2][20] - CATL maintained a stable unit profit of US$14/kWh in 3Q25, with a quarterly operating profit margin (OPM) of 17% [3][54] - The company is increasing its capital expenditure (capex) by 40% for 2025, focusing on expanding ESS capacity with a new plant in Shandong exceeding 100 GWh [4][65] - Target price raised to CNY 440, reflecting strong growth potential in ESS demand [5][11] LG Energy Solution (LGES) - LGES reported a 30% y-o-y increase in EV battery installations in 3Q25, but its revenue declined by 17% y-o-y [2][33] - The company’s OPM improved to 11% in 3Q25, but is expected to face challenges in 4Q25 due to reduced high-margin U.S. EV battery products [54][84] - Capex reduced by 30% in 2025, focusing on maximizing existing facilities [65] Samsung SDI - SDI's EV battery installations grew by 25% y-o-y in 3Q25, but revenue fell by 22% y-o-y [2][33] - The company faced continued profit challenges with an OPM of -19% in 3Q25 [54] - Capex decreased by 36% in 2025, with a focus on converting EV plants to ESS production [65] Market Dynamics - The average price of battery packs in China fell to US$93/kWh for NMC and US$69/kWh for LFP, reflecting a decline of 6% and 7% y-o-y, respectively [1][28] - Lithium prices averaged US$10,200 per ton in 3Q25, decreasing 5% y-o-y but increasing 19% quarter-over-quarter [28] - ESS demand is expected to continue growing, driven by market-based pricing and lower battery costs, particularly in China, the U.S., and Europe [8][10] Investment Implications - Battery and battery value chain stocks are rallying globally, primarily due to the surge in demand for ESS rather than EVs [8][11] - Despite the promising ESS outlook, near-term fundamentals for Korean battery makers appear challenging due to weak EV demand in the U.S. [11][81] - Ratings remain Outperform for CATL, Market-Perform for LGES, LG Chem, and SDI, and Underperform for Ecopro and Posco Future M [5][81] Financial Outlook - Revenue forecasts for battery manufacturers have been lowered due to weaker-than-expected ASPs, while earnings estimates for CATL have been raised due to a more positive outlook on unit net profit [84] - Long-term margin outlook remains unchanged, with increased ESS battery demand forecasts for Korean battery cell makers reflected in higher revenue and earnings projections from 2027 onward [84] Conclusion - The global energy storage sector is poised for significant growth, driven by ESS demand, with CATL positioned as a leading player. However, challenges remain for other manufacturers, particularly in the context of EV demand fluctuations and ASP pressures.

Core Insights - Panasonic India has appointed Tadashi Chiba as the new head, replacing Manish Sharma, who has resigned after a 17-year tenure [1][6] - The company is shifting back to Japanese management after previously being led by an Indian executive, marking a significant change in its leadership strategy [2][6] - Panasonic has exited the refrigerators and washing machine business due to losses and is now focusing on televisions and air-conditioners, with India becoming the second-largest market for ACs [2][5] Company Performance - Panasonic India reported a revenue of approximately Rs 11,100 crore and a net profit of Rs 1,100 crore for the fiscal year 2024-25 [5] - In the previous fiscal year 2023-24, the group revenue was Rs 9,700 crore with a net profit of Rs 830 crore, indicating a growth trajectory [5] Strategic Shift - The company has transitioned from a consumer electronics focus to a technology-oriented approach, emphasizing B2B solutions, including EV batteries and smart factory solutions [2][6] - Panasonic's industrial devices and smart factory solutions segments have surpassed Rs 1,000 crore, driven by initiatives like "Make in India" and electrification [6]

Summary of China Auto/EV/Batteries Global Markets Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China auto market**, particularly the **electric vehicle (EV)** segment and **batteries** industry - The data reflects trends and performance metrics for the **automotive sector** in China, including sales figures and market dynamics Key Points Market Performance - In September 2025, the China auto market recorded: - **Wholesale unit shipments**: 2.9 million (+13.2% year-on-year, +12.5% month-on-month) [1] - **Retail unit shipments**: 2.2 million (+6.4% year-on-year, +11.0% month-on-month) [1] - **EV retail sales**: 1.3 million units (+15.5% year-on-year, +16.1% month-on-month) [1] - **EV penetration** reached a record high of **57.1%** [1][7] Future Expectations - Anticipation of **rush orders and deliveries** in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the impending **50% cut in EV purchase tax exemption** starting in 2026 [3][7] - Expected **muted demand** in the first quarter of 2026 as the market adjusts post-subsidy [3] Competitive Landscape - Increased competition is expected as traditional **internal combustion engine (ICE)** players maintain significant market share [2] - Notable EV players gaining market share include **Geely** and **Leapmotor** in the mass market, while **NIO**, **Li Auto**, and **Xiaomi** are emerging in the premium segment [2][17][18][22] Battery Market Insights - **EV battery installation** grew by **15% quarter-on-quarter** to **76 GWh** in September 2025, with a total of **194 GWh** installed in Q3 2025 (+36% year-on-year) [5][39] - Lithium carbonate prices decreased from **CNY 80,000/tonne** to **CNY 73,000/tonne** due to increased production and inventory levels [5][48] - Anticipated **high-single-digit percentage growth** in battery production for October 2025, which may support lithium prices in the near term [5][48] Company-Specific Performance - **BYD**: - Retail sales of **347,400 units** in September 2025 (-10.2% year-on-year) with a market share of **26.8%** [16] - Inventory ratio at **1.49**, indicating efforts to clear stock ahead of a strategic shift in 2026 [16] - **Geely**: - Retail sales of **151,000 units** (+68.3% year-on-year) with a market share of **11.6%** [17] - **NIO**: - Retail sales of **34,600 units** (+63.2% year-on-year) with new model launches contributing to improved competitiveness [22] - **Xiaomi**: - Retail sales surged to **36,600 units** (+209% year-on-year) [18] Export and Global Expansion - The China auto industry exported **560,000 units** of passenger vehicles (+22.5% year-on-year) [34] - Companies are expected to focus on **global expansion** to mitigate challenges in the domestic market [4][34] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The **Inventory Alert Index** slightly declined to **54.5%**, indicating a healthy inventory level as the peak season approaches [30] - Stricter standards for NEVs eligible for tax exemptions may necessitate inventory clearance for certain models [9] Conclusion - The China auto market, particularly the EV segment, is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing penetration and competitive dynamics. However, challenges such as upcoming tax changes and intensified competition necessitate strategic adjustments by market players. The battery market shows promising growth, with expectations of continued demand and price stabilization in the near term.

Core Insights - In China, the largest and fastest growing electric vehicle (EV) market, auto sales are experiencing a slowdown while a price war is ongoing due to intensified local competition [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The EV market in China is facing a slowdown in auto sales [1] - Local competition among EV manufacturers is intensifying, leading to a price war [1] Group 2: Company Actions - BYD has recently introduced limited-time discounts of up to an unspecified amount to attract customers [1]