投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 假期前股市风险偏好谨慎乐观 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严 谨 管 理 开 拓 进 取 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询 ...

◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 假期前股市风险偏好较为谨慎 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 20010 亿元，较上日缩量 1237 亿元。临 近假期，出于对假期现金需求以及假期不确定性风险的考虑，当前股市资金交投意愿 ...

◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 股市风险偏好谨慎乐观 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 21247 亿元，较上日缩量 1454 亿元。随 着白银止跌反弹，市场情绪有所回暖，股指运行逻辑回归自身基本面。不过 ...

◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 估值端提升较快，股指震荡整固 需求升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡下跌，全天呈现探底回升的态 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly shock consolidation, with the core logic that the optimistic sentiment has cooled, and there is still a need for shock consolidation. The policy - favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market support the upward movement of the stock index in the long - term, but the regulatory's risk - control expectation restrains the "chasing high" sentiment in the short - term [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled, and there is still a need for shock consolidation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the stock indexes showed differentiation yesterday, with IM and IC having a high - level correction and IH and IF continuing shock consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3280.6 billion yuan, an increase of 162.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The policy - favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds support the upward movement of the stock index in the long - term, but the regulatory's risk - control expectation restrains the "chasing high" sentiment in the short - term. The rise of this stock rebound is mainly contributed by the valuation side, and the stock index has a growing need for short - term shock consolidation. Due to the market's preference for small - and medium - cap stocks, the fluctuations of IM and IC have intensified, and short - term repeated fluctuation risks should be noted [5]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on the stock index futures is that they will fluctuate and consolidate. In the short - term (within a week), the sentiment is oscillating, and in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it's also oscillating. For the intraday, it's on the weaker side [1][5]. - The main factors supporting the long - term upward trend of the stock index are the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market. In the short - term, the expectations of policy bottom - support, support for technological innovation, and boosting consumption are clear, which strongly support the stock index. Although the regulatory authorities have signaled risk control, the high trading volume in the stock market indicates that the market sentiment remains optimistic [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is on the weaker side. The reference view is that it will fluctuate and consolidate, with the core logic being that the optimistic sentiment has cooled down and there is still a need for oscillatory consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is on the weaker side, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is that they will fluctuate and consolidate. The core logic is that last Friday, the stock indices fluctuated and diverged, with IM and IC leading the gains, while IH and IF slightly declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 311.81 billion yuan, an increase of 40.17 billion yuan from the previous day [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that they will be mainly in a range - bound consolidation phase, with the overall short - term trend of IH2603 being volatile, the medium - term being volatile, and the intraday being weak, with the view of volatile consolidation. The short - and medium - term views of IF, IH, IC, and IM are weak intraday and volatile in the medium - term, also with a view of volatile consolidation [1][5]. - Although the stock index needs to consolidate due to factors such as the lack of strong performance - end repair expectations and the cooling of optimistic sentiment, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged due to positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Volatile | Volatile | Weak | Volatile consolidation | Optimistic sentiment has cooled, and there is still a need for volatile consolidation [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation [5]. - **Core Logic**: The stock indexes slightly declined in a volatile manner yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2804.1 billion yuan, an increase of 72 billion yuan from the previous day. Since the stock market gains this year have mainly come from the increase in the valuation end under loose liquidity, and the performance - end repair expectations are not strong from the perspective of macro - economic indicators, the stock indexes need to consolidate. Coupled with the policy signals of de - leveraging and risk control released by the regulatory authorities, the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled, the trading volume has declined, and the stock indexes have entered a volatile consolidation phase. However, the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, so the long - term upward logic of the stock indexes remains unchanged [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the stock index is oscillating with a slightly upward trend in the short - term. For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term are both oscillating, and the intraday view is slightly upward, with an overall view of oscillating and slightly upward due to the unchanged policy favorable expectations and the trend of net capital inflow [1][5]. - Although the stock market showed an oscillating consolidation trend with a significant shrinkage in trading volume today, in the long run, the continuous fermentation of policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market make the logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index relatively reliable, but the short - term rhythm is uncertain and the intraday fluctuations will intensify [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is slightly upward, and the overall view is oscillating and slightly upward. The core logic is the unchanged policy favorable expectations and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is slightly upward, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and slightly upward. - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated. The total market turnover was 291.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.54 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The significant shrinkage in trading volume today indicates that investors have realized the policy intention of the regulatory authorities to reduce leverage and control risks, and the risk preference of investors has decreased. - Due to the obvious increase in the valuation of some stocks since this year while the performance repair is not strong, the profit - making funds have the need for "high - low switching", showing an oscillating consolidation market. - In the long run, the continuous fermentation of policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market make the logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index relatively reliable, but the short - term rhythm is uncertain and the intraday fluctuations will intensify [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View The report provides a daily tracking of the holdings of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It details the changes in total holdings, main - contract holdings, and the positions of the top 20 long and short seats for each type of futures on January 14, 2026 [1][4][10]. 3. Summary by Variety IF (CSI 300) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IF variety increased by 12,419 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 11,113 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 52,320 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 1,738 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,847 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 47,468 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,190 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 260 lots [7]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IH variety increased by 3,997 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 2,663 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 11,412 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 754 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 956 lots [11]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 14,899 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 1,285 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,578 lots [12]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IC variety increased by 13,386 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 4,547 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 52,809 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 2,373 lots, while Yong'an Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 674 lots [17]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 59,520 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 3,016 lots, while J.P. Morgan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 744 lots [19]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IM variety increased by 13,386 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 4,547 lots [22]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 62,629 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 2,706 lots, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,438 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 80,289 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,579 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,430 lots [24].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report expects the stock index to operate in a volatile and moderately strong manner in the short term. The short - term view is that the market sentiment remains optimistic due to the continuous increase in trading volume, and the short - term correction will not change the moderately strong trend of the stock index, though intraday fluctuations may intensify. In the medium and long term, with the continuous fermentation of positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market, the logic of the upward movement of the stock index is relatively solid [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", the intraday view is "moderately strong", and the overall view is "volatile and moderately strong". The core logic is the unchanged positive policy expectations and the trend of capital net inflow [1]. 2. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "moderately strong", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the reference view is "volatile and moderately strong". Yesterday, all stock indexes rose and then fell, with the whole - market trading volume reaching 398.68 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The regulatory authorities raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, showing a clear intention to reduce leverage and control risks. Due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks this year and the weak expectation of performance repair, the market risk preference declined in the afternoon yesterday, leading to a high - level correction of the stock index. However, the continuous increase in trading volume indicates that market sentiment remains optimistic [5].