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股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View The report provides a daily tracking of the holdings of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It details the changes in total holdings, main - contract holdings, and the positions of the top 20 long and short seats for each type of futures on January 14, 2026 [1][4][10]. 3. Summary by Variety IF (CSI 300) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IF variety increased by 12,419 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 11,113 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 52,320 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 1,738 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,847 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 47,468 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,190 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 260 lots [7]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IH variety increased by 3,997 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 2,663 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 11,412 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 754 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 956 lots [11]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 14,899 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 1,285 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,578 lots [12]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IC variety increased by 13,386 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 4,547 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 52,809 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 2,373 lots, while Yong'an Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 674 lots [17]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 59,520 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 3,016 lots, while J.P. Morgan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 744 lots [19]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IM variety increased by 13,386 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 4,547 lots [22]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 62,629 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 2,706 lots, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,438 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 80,289 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,579 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,430 lots [24].
广发期货日评-20260109
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 05:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC contract V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly; for iron ore 12605, short - selling is recommended; corn C2603 is expected to fluctuate strongly and buying on dips is advised; silver AG2604 has a complex situation with price fluctuations and corresponding operation suggestions [3]. - In the stock index sector, after the index breaks through the previous high, there are signs of concentrated main lines and narrowing heat. It is recommended to take partial profit on single - side long futures, hold bull spread combinations, and consider building covered call combinations on dips. Among them, IC components are more in line with the main - line structure and perform stronger [3]. - In the bond market, after continuous decline, there is a slight rebound due to the shock of the equity market and loose capital. However, the bond market sentiment is still suppressed by factors such as the spring rally of equities, inflation recovery expectations, and supply disturbances. It is still difficult to say that it has stabilized. For single - side strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and for curve strategies, it is still inclined to steepen in the medium term [3]. - For precious metals, gold long positions should be held above $4300, and attention should be paid to the rise of the gold - silver ratio. For silver, it is recommended to keep a light - position long strategy above $70. For platinum and palladium, it is recommended to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average, and short the platinum - palladium ratio can be tried [3]. - The shipping index EC2602 is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term; steel prices will maintain a fluctuating trend, with specific price ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coils [3]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as copper prices adjusting in a fluctuating manner, and corresponding operation suggestions for aluminum, zinc, etc. [3]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon futures have limit - down, and lithium carbonate has wide - range fluctuations. Different products have different operation suggestions [3]. - In the chemical industry, different chemical products have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as PX and PTA fluctuating in specific ranges and having low - buying strategies in the medium term [3]. - In the agricultural products sector, different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar are expected to have range - bound fluctuations, and different operation suggestions are given for each [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Index breakthrough leads to concentrated main lines and narrowing heat. It is recommended to take partial profit on single - side long futures, hold bull spread combinations, and consider building covered call combinations on dips. IC components perform stronger [3]. Bond Market - After continuous decline, there is a slight rebound due to equity market shock and loose capital. But sentiment is suppressed, and it is difficult to say it has stabilized. Single - side strategies: wait and see; Curve strategies: inclined to steepen in the medium term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: hold long positions above $4300, pay attention to the rise of the gold - silver ratio; Silver: keep a light - position long strategy above $70; Platinum and palladium: buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average, short the platinum - palladium ratio can be tried [3]. Shipping - The shipping index EC2602 is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term [3]. Steel - Steel prices maintain a fluctuating trend, with rebar fluctuating in the range of 3000 - 3200 and hot - rolled coils in the range of 3150 - 3350 [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Different non - ferrous metals have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as copper price adjustment, and corresponding operations for aluminum, zinc, etc. [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures have limit - down, lithium carbonate has wide - range fluctuations, and different products have different operation suggestions [3]. Chemical Industry - Different chemical products have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as PX and PTA fluctuating in specific ranges and having low - buying strategies in the medium term [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar are expected to have range - bound fluctuations, and different operation suggestions are given for each [3].
广发期货日评-20260107
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 02:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The A - share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad - based ETFs recently, and the downside space is limited. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. The post - holiday market has a strong upward momentum, and it is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios [3]. - The current abundant capital supports the bond market, but concerns about supply and the strengthening of equities restrain the performance of long - term bonds. Market consistency behavior may amplify fluctuations, and the stabilization or repair of long - term bonds will occur after the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer [3]. - Geopolitical risks and tight supply continue to drive up the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain high - volatility operation in January, and silver is recommended to be lightly long - held with low positions in high - volatility markets [3]. - Steel production is being cut and inventories are being reduced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the iron ore market, more steel mills are resuming production, and attention should be paid to the impact of finished product export policies [3]. - Coal prices in Shanxi are running weakly, and coking coal and coke are viewed bearishly. The market sentiment for ferrosilicon has improved, and the price of manganese silicon is affected by ore support and supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Concerns about the stability of metal supply have intensified, driving up copper prices. Aluminum prices have reached new highs, but there are signs of over - rising in the short term. Zinc prices have moved up, and tin prices are oscillating strongly [3]. - The organic silicon industry is reducing production to support prices, and the polysilicon futures have fallen after rising. The lithium carbonate market has a strong sentiment, and supply disruptions are expected to intensify [3]. - The prices of PX and PTA are expected to oscillate at high levels, and short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations. The supply and demand of bottle chips are both decreasing in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space [3]. - Ethanol is in a seasonal inventory - building period, and the price is under pressure. The supply - demand situation of benzene is slightly improving, but high inventories still put pressure on prices [3]. - The LLDPE market has strong orders, and the price of PP has strengthened slightly. The port price of methanol is strong, and the futures of caustic soda have rebounded strongly [3]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the urea market has improved after the Indian tender results were announced. The soda ash and glass markets have rebounded due to macro factors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of production and sales [3]. - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate. The prices of edible oils are oscillating within a range, and the prices of sugar are rebounding slightly [3]. - The egg supply is stable, and the apple market is driven by the shortage of high - quality fruits. The price of cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and the price of red dates has stabilized [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Nickel (NI2602) is expected to fluctuate strongly; Methanol (MA2605) is expected to be strong in the short term; Iron ore (I2605) is recommended for short - term long - position attempts; Live pigs (LH2603) are expected to fluctuate strongly; Silver (AG2604) is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share index has rebounded, and the stock index has reached new highs. It is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios. Core assets and technology - leading stocks represented by IH and IC are dominant [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is supported by abundant funds, but long - term bonds are restricted. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage, and steepen the yield curve [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and tight supply drive up prices. Gold should be held long above $4300, silver should be lightly long - held with low positions, and platinum and palladium should be long - held at low positions [3]. Commodity Sector - **Steel and Iron**: Steel prices are range - bound, iron ore is recommended for short - term long - positions, coking coal and coke are bearish, ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and manganese silicon is for range - bound operations [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are rising, aluminum prices are at new highs but not recommended to be chased, zinc prices are rising, tin prices are strongly oscillating, and nickel and stainless steel are recommended for long - positions at low prices [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Organic silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen after rising, lithium carbonate is recommended to wait and see, PX and PTA are for high - level oscillations and low - level long - positions, and short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: LLDPE is recommended for short - term long - positions, PP should focus on PDH profit expansion, methanol is recommended for long - positions at low prices, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate, edible oils are range - bound, sugar is slightly rebounding, cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and red dates are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3].
广发期货日评-20251231
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 02:17
1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term negative factors for the index have been exhausted, and it has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETFs have also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly. Core assets are expected to rise. Before the festival, there may be capital withdrawals, and there will be short - term fluctuations [3]. - The sentiment in the bond market has recovered, but the overall market sentiment is fragile and sensitive to negative factors. In the short term, with unclear positive factors, the bond market may maintain a volatile trend [3]. - For precious metals, the market sentiment needs time to recover after the sharp fall in the gold market due to rapid capital outflows. The "irrational" upward trend of silver is expected to end, bringing volatility reduction [3]. - The steel market is in a state of production reduction and inventory reduction, and the price maintains a range - bound trend [3]. - The new energy market has different trends. For example, the industrial silicon futures have rebounded in a volatile manner, while the lithium carbonate market has seen significant adjustments due to the profit - taking of risk - averse funds before the festival [3]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Futures Variety Views - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: The copper price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. It is recommended to take profits on long positions when the price is high. The main contract focuses on the support level of 95,500 - 96,000 [3]. - Aluminum: The spot discount has widened to a high value this year. Long positions can take short - term profits when the price is high. The main contract operates in the range of 21,800 - 22,800, and long positions can be arranged after the price correction [3]. - Zinc: The decline in TC supports the price, and the spot performance is average. The main contract refers to the range of 22,800 - 23,800, with a low - buying strategy in the range, and the cross - market reverse arbitrage should be continued to hold [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - PX: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between PX2605 and PX2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - PTA: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between TA2605 and TA2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - Methanol: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has risen significantly. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread of the 05 contract [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Corn: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market has fallen after rising. It is in a weakly volatile state [3]. - Cotton: The supply - demand outlook is optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream enterprises. It is in a strongly volatile state [3]. - Apple: The demand is weak, and the price is falling. It is recommended to close long positions at an appropriate time [3]. 3.2 Futures Variety Operation Suggestions - **Stock Index Futures**: It is recommended to continue to hold the bull spread portfolio and match it with a small amount of short - selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, pay attention to the capital situation and the central bank's bond - buying situation. In the medium term, pay attention to the performance of the first - quarter economic start and the stock market trend. The unilateral strategy is to wait and see for the time being, continue to pay attention to the positive arbitrage in the spot - futures strategy, and still tend to steepen the yield curve in the curve strategy [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold is recommended to be purchased at a low price after the Spring Festival. For silver, before the New Year's Day, it is recommended to close or lock the positions and wait for a suitable allocation window after the festival [3].
广发期货日评-20251226
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:15
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views - Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETF has also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the robot concept has led the market. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. A bull spread strategy can be attempted on the CSI 300 index [2] - The 10 - year bond varieties are relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. The T2603 contract should pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. For the 30 - year bond, the active bond yield around 2.28% may be the stage top, and the bottom of the TL contract may gradually become clear. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and the end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to buy the T contract varieties on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, appropriate participation in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis widening strategy can be considered [2] - Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the US economic and monetary policies and the adjustment of the new - year market asset allocation. For gold, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy for unilateral long positions; silver's high volatility continues to give upward impetus to the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Attention should be paid to the repair of the domestic premium, and positions can be reduced or locked in at high prices before the Spring Festival. Palladium may continue to correct under the weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong, and it is advisable to buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [2] - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Equity Index Futures - The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETF has also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the robot concept has led the market. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. A bull spread strategy can be attempted on the CSI 300 index [2] Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year bond varieties are relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. The T2603 contract should pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. For the 30 - year bond, the active bond yield around 2.28% may be the stage top, and the bottom of the TL contract may gradually become clear. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and the end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to buy the T contract varieties on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, appropriate participation in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis widening strategy can be considered [2] Precious Metals - Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the US economic and monetary policies and the adjustment of the new - year market asset allocation. For gold, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy for unilateral long positions; silver's high volatility continues to give upward impetus to the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Attention should be paid to the repair of the domestic premium, and positions can be reduced or locked in at high prices before the Spring Festival. Palladium may continue to correct under the weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong, and it is advisable to buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [2] Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel production is cut and inventories are reduced, and the price maintains a range - bound trend. The May rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the price ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively. The decline of hot - metal output may be limited, and the steel mills' restocking expectation supports the price. Short - term range - bound operation is the main strategy, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal prices at the production areas rise and fall alternately, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. The rebound space of the futures price is limited. It should be regarded as a range - bound market, and short positions can be established on rallies, with the reference range of 1000 - 1200. In December, the third round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the port trading price fluctuates with the futures. It should be regarded as a range - bound market, and short positions can be established on rallies, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Production cuts alleviate the supply - demand contradiction, and the cost is stable. It is in a bottom - range - bound market, with the reference range of 5500 - 5700. High inventories suppress the price rebound, and the cost side provides support. Short - term operation is recommended, and short positions can be tried when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The copper futures price has risen sharply, and the domestic spot discount has continued to widen. Short - term observation is recommended, and the main contract should pay attention to the support around 95500; the protective put option combination can continue to be held. The warehouse receipts of alumina are continuously decreasing, and the futures price fluctuates at a low level around the cash cost. The main contract operates in the range of 2600 - 2800, and short - term traders can lightly establish long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound. The social inventory of aluminum has increased by 35,000 tons, and the negative feedback of the off - season fundamentals has deepened. The main contract operates in the range of 21800 - 22600, and long positions can be established on dips [2] Energy and Chemicals - After the sharp rise of PX, the current PX price should be treated with caution. Long positions can be reduced at high prices, and it is not recommended to chase the rise; in the medium term, it can be treated with a low - buying strategy; the PX 5 - 9 low - level cash - and - carry arbitrage is the main strategy. PTA has risen sharply following PX, and the current price should be treated with caution. Long positions can be reduced at high prices, and it is not recommended to chase the rise; in the medium term, it can be treated with a low - buying strategy; the TA 5 - 9 low - level cash - and - carry arbitrage is the main strategy [2] Agricultural Products - The Brazilian sugarcane harvest is expected to be bountiful, and the impact of domestic policies should be noted. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand supports the market, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened. The price is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The long - and short - term game continues to be deadlocked, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of supply. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2]
广发期货日评-20251223
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations on various futures varieties, including judgments on their trends and corresponding operation suggestions [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Styrene (NI2602, EB2602): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [3] - Palm Oil (P2605): Expected to be strong in the short - term [3] - Silver (AU2602): Suggest to buy on dips [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603)**: Opened higher and closed higher, with the technology sector leading the rise. After the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike, short - term negative factors are exhausted. The index has rebounded continuously, and broad - based ETFs have flowed back. The downside space is limited. The main line is unclear, trading volume is insufficient for an upward breakthrough, and volatility is low. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. Short - term market may be driven by year - end performance - chasing trading demands, and it is advisable to view it as a volatile market. If participating in trading, enter and exit quickly and take profits in time [3] - **Treasury Bonds (T2603, TF2603, TS2603, TL2603)**: With stable LPR and a strong stock market, treasury bond futures fluctuated downward. The 10 - year variety is relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. Pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8 for T2603. In the short - term, the sustainability of post - New Year's capital loosening. For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short - term and view it as a wide - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the long - position substitution of the TL contract intraday, and the positive spread and basis widening opportunities of the short - term 2603 contracts [3] - **Precious Metals (AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606)**: Without clear negative factors, the short - term market of precious metals will remain strong. Subsequently, pay attention to changes in the US economy and monetary policies of various countries. Hold long positions unilaterally. When silver rises sharply, pay attention to changes in the number of open contracts, warehouse receipts, and inventory, as well as the implementation of regulatory risk - control measures. Due to the festival effect, funds have driven gold, silver, platinum, and palladium to new highs, with platinum and palladium rising more. Be cautious of speculative long - positions taking profits at high levels, but high volatility still provides upward momentum for prices. It is recommended to buy on dips to increase the trading safety cushion. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still have short - term correction risks, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC2602)**: The main contract fluctuated upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Non - Ferrous Metals and Steel Sector - **Steel (RB2605)**: Steel production has been cut and inventory has been reduced, and prices will maintain a range - bound fluctuation. Pay attention to the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan for May rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan for hot - rolled coils [3] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, while steel mills' restocking expectations support prices. It is advisable to conduct short - term operations within the range for the 05 contract, and try short positions around 800 [3] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Coal prices at production areas have fluctuated up and down, and Mongolian coal prices have followed futures fluctuations. The futures market has rebounded from oversold conditions. It is expected to rebound with fluctuations, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 [3] - **Coke (J2605)**: The third round of price cuts for coke in December has been implemented, and port trading prices have followed futures fluctuations. It is expected to rebound with fluctuations, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [3] - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, and costs have remained stable. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 5400 - 5650 [3] - **Manganese Silicon (SM603)**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the cost side provides support. Conduct short - term operations and try short positions when the price rebounds above the current cost in Ningxia [3] - **Copper (CU2602)**: LME inventory has decreased, and the domestic spot has a discount. Wait and see in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 92500 - 95000 [3] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The futures market fluctuated at a low level around the cash cost. The main contract operates in the range of 2450 - 2650. Short - term traders can lightly buy on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: The spot discount has widened, and market trading has been sluggish. The main contract operates in the range of 21800 - 22600. Buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy (AD2602)**: Social inventory has been slowly reduced, and the futures market has been strong. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20800 - 21600. Conduct an arbitrage by going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: Zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and social inventory has continued to decline. Pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950 for the main contract, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - **Tin (SN2601)**: The fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold previous long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [3] - **Nickel (NI2602)**: Driven by both mine - end disturbances and valuation, the futures market has continued to rise with fluctuations. The main contract refers to 116000 - 124000 [3] - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: The futures market has remained strong, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The main contract refers to 12500 - 13000 [3] - **Industrial Silicon (Si2605)**: Some spot prices have risen slightly, and futures prices have fluctuated downward. The main contract refers to 8000 - 8800 [3] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Polysilicon (PS2605)**: Cooling measures have been introduced, and polysilicon futures prices have fluctuated downward. It is fluctuating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: The futures market has remained strong, and the exchange has announced an adjustment of some delivery warehouses. The main contract refers to 112,000 - 116,000 [3] - **PX (PX2603)**: With a tight medium - term supply - demand outlook, PX has been favored by funds and has shown a strong trend. After a sharp rise in PX, be cautious about the current price. Reduce long positions on rallies, and do not chase the rise. Adopt a strategy of buying at low levels in the medium term. Focus on the low - level positive spread between PX5 - 9 [3] - **PTA (TA2605)**: The outlook for raw material PX has improved, but the driving force for PTA is limited. However, strong support exists due to low processing fees. After PTA has followed PX's sharp rise, be cautious about the current price. Reduce long positions on rallies, and do not chase the rise. Adopt a strategy of buying at low levels in the medium term. Focus on the low - level positive spread between TA5 - 9 [3] - **Short - Fiber (PF2602)**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials. The strategy is the same as that for PTA: mainly shrink the processing fee on the futures market when it rises [3] - **Bottle Chip (PR2603)**: The cost side is strong, and the supply of PR is expected to increase. The short - term processing fee of PR will be compressed. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. Shrink the processing fee on rallies. Hold the PR2602 - P - 5500 seller position [3] - **Ethanol (EG2605)**: Overseas supply has shrunk, but the supply - demand outlook is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Conduct a reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 when it rises. Hold the EG2605 - C - 4100 seller position [3] - **Pure Benzene (BZ2603)**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 will fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] - **Styrene (EB2602)**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the driving force for styrene is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 in the short - term [3] - **LLDPE (I2605)**: In North China, it has maintained near the risk - free basis, and hedging transactions have improved [3] - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot prices have remained stable, and the basis has weakened slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3] - **Methanol (MA2605)**: The spot basis has remained stable, and trading has been light. The MTO spread of the 05 contract will narrow [3] - **Caustic Soda (SH2603)**: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that prices will run weakly. Adopt a bearish approach [3] - **PVC (V2605)**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and procurement prices have declined. Adopt a bearish approach on rebounds [3] - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: Production is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious. The futures market has weakened after a rebound. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds [3] - **Glass (FG2605)**: Spot prices have been under pressure and weakened, and the off - season logic continues. Wait and see [3] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: There is a stalemate in the game between bulls and bears, and rubber prices will fluctuate within a range. Wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber (BR2602)**: The cost side is fluctuating, and with high BR supply and a premium on the futures market, BR will fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 11200 - 11300 for BR2602 [3] Agricultural Sector - **Meal (M2605, RM605)**: US soybeans have no bright spots, and there is still pressure on the spot market. It will adjust in a narrow range [3] - **Live Pigs (LH2603)**: Demand supports the market. Pay attention to the performance of second - fattening entry. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - **Corn (C2603)**: There is still suppression above. Pay attention to the rhythm of supply increase. It will fluctuate weakly [3] - **Oils (P2605, Y2605)**: With the Christmas holiday approaching, oils may fluctuate within a range. The P main contract may optimistically冲击 8500 in the short - term [3] - **Sugar (SR2605)**: The supply outlook is loose. Adopt a bearish approach on rebounds [3] - **Cotton (CF2605)**: The supply outlook is expected to shrink. It will fluctuate strongly [3] - **Eggs (JD2602)**: Egg prices are mostly stable with a slight decline. It will fluctuate weakly [3] - **Apples (AP2605)**: Weak demand limits the rebound height. It is recommended to take profits on long positions [3] - **Jujubes (CJ2605)**: The expectation of oversupply dominates, and prices will run weakly. Sell out - of - the - money call options (CJ605 - C - 9700) [3]
银河期货股指期货数据日报-20251204
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 09:32
1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report" and dated December 4, 2025 [1][2] 2. Overall Market Performance Summary IM Contracts - The main IM contract rose 0.33% to close at 7,213.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 172,057 lots, down 5,429 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 357,216 lots, down 13,768 lots [4][5] IF Contracts - The main IF contract rose 0.32% to close at 4,530.6 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 92,574 lots, down 5,184 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 261,904 lots, down 3,942 lots [24][25] IC Contracts - The main IC contract rose 0.55% to close at 6,983.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 99,796 lots, down 2,272 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 244,189 lots, down 8,576 lots [43][44] IH Contracts - The main IH contract rose 0.34% to close at 2,968.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 39,273 lots, down 44 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 87,594 lots, down 3,020 lots [59] 3. Specific Contract Data IM Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 7,248.66 | 0.01% | 19,484 | -9% | 3,113 billion | -7% | - | - | | IM2512 | 7,213.40 | 0.39% | 116,454 | -2% | 1,674 billion | -2% | 181,088 | -11,986 | | IM2601 | 7,137.20 | 0.33% | 7,618 | 5% | 108 billion | 5% | 17,229 | 1,137 | | IM2603 | 6,987.80 | 0.38% | 35,706 | -4% | 497 billion | -4% | 102,333 | -1,707 | | IM2606 | 6,748.20 | 0.41% | 12,279 | -15% | 165 billion | -15% | 56,566 | -1,212 | [4] IF Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 300 | 4,546.57 | 0.34% | 14,720 | -13% | 3,488 billion | -7% | - | - | | IF2512 | 4,530.60 | 0.38% | 63,708 | -6% | 865 billion | -6% | 136,475 | -5,723 | | IF2601 | 4,512.20 | 0.32% | 3,708 | 0% | 5 billion | 0% | 8,471 | 505 | | IF2603 | 4,492.20 | 0.34% | 20,155 | -5% | 271 billion | -5% | 90,771 | 851 | | IF2606 | 4,441.60 | 0.27% | 5,003 | 0% | 67 billion | 0% | 26,187 | 425 | [24] IC Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 7,012.81 | 0.24% | 14,104 | -11% | 2,399 billion | -5% | - | - | | IC2512 | 6,983.20 | 0.61% | 64,721 | -4% | 901 billion | -4% | 123,278 | -10,513 | | IC2601 | 6,926.20 | 0.55% | 4,034 | 7% | 56 billion | 7% | 11,229 | 789 | | IC2603 | 6,812.20 | 0.59% | 23,747 | 0% | 323 billion | 0% | 76,774 | 1,096 | | IC2606 | 6,605.00 | 0.59% | 7,294 | 0% | 96 billion | 0% | 32,908 | 52 | [43] IH Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,974.34 | 0.38% | 3,628 | -6% | 886 billion | 4% | - | - | | IH2512 | 2,968.20 | 0.44% | 27,688 | 0% | 246 billion | 0% | 53,262 | -2,692 | | IH2601 | 2,959.80 | 0.34% | 1,268 | 25% | 11 billion | 25% | 2,694 | 228 | | IH2603 | 2,958.60 | 0.37% | 8,640 | 3% | 77 billion | 3% | 23,841 | -354 | | IH2606 | 2,943.80 | 0.36% | 1,677 | -29% | 15 billion | -29% | 7,797 | -202 | [59] 4. Basis and Annualized Basis Rate IM Contracts - The main IM contract was at a discount of 35.26 points, up 17.61 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -11.15% [5] IF Contracts - The main IF contract was at a discount of 15.97 points, down 3.12 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -8.04% [25] IC Contracts - The main IC contract was at a discount of 29.61 points, up 16.35 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -9.67% [44] IH Contracts - The main IH contract was at a discount of 6.14 points, down 1.46 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -4.72% [60] 5. Main Seats' Data IM2512 - For trading volume, the top five seats were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 14,784 lots, up 321 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 11,474 lots, down 625 lots; Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,779 lots, down 200 lots; Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,280 lots, down 59 lots; and Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,042 lots, up 104 lots [19] - For long positions, the top five seats were Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 15,520 lots, down 637 lots; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,314 lots, down 492 lots; Yide Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,060 lots, up 9 lots; Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,679 lots, down 376 lots; and Guotou Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,084 lots, up 108 lots [19] - For short positions, the top five seats were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 20,445 lots, up 192 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 15,590 lots, down 735 lots; Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,813 lots, down 103 lots; Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,184 lots, down 164 lots; and Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,118 lots, down 603 lots [19] Other Contracts - Similar data is provided for other contracts such as IF, IC, and IH in relevant sections of the report [38][54][76]