机构：国盛证券 海外市场来看，销售、生产、研发一片向好。1）汽车销售方面，Q1-3，小鹏汽车海外交付量达到 29706 辆 ，9月销量首次突破5000 台，同比增长79%。2）渠道方面，截至今年8 月 ，小鹏在全球已经 签约超119 家经销商，门店从去年150 家增长至275 家。3）生产方面，小鹏汽车首个欧洲本地化的生产 项目位于奥地利的格拉茨的麦格纳工厂正式启动，首批小鹏 G6 和 G9 顺利量产下线。4）研发方面，小 鹏汽车在德国慕尼黑的研发中心已经启用。从成长性上看，海外市场方兴未艾，小鹏汽车当前在海外的 主销车型包括G6/G9/X9 等，尽管出海成绩优秀，但实际上欧洲市场更偏好尺寸更小的车型。我们认为 随着P7+及Mona SUV 在明年出口销售，小鹏汽车海外汽车销售将再创佳绩。 VLA 2.0 有望带动小鹏汽车智驾能力断档领先。小鹏汽车在11 月5 日科技日上正式宣布了最新一代的智 驾模型VLA 2.0。用于VLA 2.0 的数据训练量接近1 亿clips，相当于人类司机驾驶65,000 年才能遇到的极 限场景总和。 基于VLA 2.0，小鹏汽车即将发布「小路NGP」功能，显著提升复杂小路与混行环 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic humanoid robot industry is set to enter a critical turning point in 2025, driven by policy support, technological breakthroughs, and capital investment, leading to the commercial application of humanoid robots across various sectors such as industrial manufacturing, medical rehabilitation, and home services [1][13][16]. Policy Support - A multi-layered promotion system has been established in China, combining central coordination, local collaboration, and alliance interaction, with the central government issuing the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots" in 2023, outlining a three-step goal for the industry [2][21]. - Local governments are leveraging regional advantages for differentiated layouts, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen focusing on high-end research and scene opening, while mid-western cities like Chongqing and Chengdu emphasize local supply chain development [2][26]. Capital Investment - The investment enthusiasm in the humanoid robot sector has surged, with 108 financing events and over 15.35 billion yuan invested in the first seven months of 2025, primarily in early-stage projects [3][32]. - Major tech companies and local governments are significant investors, with strategic investments aimed at enhancing technology capabilities and supporting early-stage startups [3][33]. Supply Side Dynamics - The industry is characterized by a diverse competitive landscape involving automotive companies, tech firms, and startups, each leveraging their strengths to drive technological advancements [4][5]. - Automotive companies are utilizing their expertise in autonomous driving and supply chain collaboration to facilitate the large-scale deployment of humanoid robots, while tech companies focus on enhancing the "brain" capabilities of robots through large models [4][15]. Application Expansion - The expansion of application scenarios is opening vast market opportunities for humanoid robots, with significant advancements in industrial, medical, and commercial service sectors [6][16]. - The report emphasizes that as technology continues to evolve and costs decrease, domestic humanoid robots are transitioning from being merely functional to being user-friendly, with a projected market worth in the trillions [6][16].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry's transition into humanoid robotics represents a significant shift from vehicle manufacturing to intelligent ecosystem builders, leveraging existing technological assets and supply chain capabilities to redefine competitive advantages in the smart era [4][50]. Group 1: Technological Reuse - The cross-industry movement from automotive to humanoid robotics is driven by the systematic migration of industrial capabilities to intelligent scenarios, highlighting the deep logic of technological reuse, supply chain sharing, and strategic restructuring [6]. - The technology architecture of smart cars and humanoid robots overlaps significantly in perception, decision-making, and execution, allowing for direct migration of algorithms from automotive to robotics [7]. - Tesla's Autopilot algorithms have been adapted for the Optimus project, demonstrating the effective reuse of technology and rapid development capabilities [9][12]. Group 2: Cost Advantages - The automotive industry's scale advantages are reshaping cost structures in the robotics sector, with automotive-grade components being significantly cheaper than their industrial counterparts [13]. - The stringent quality standards of the automotive industry are being applied to robotics, enhancing component reliability and reducing failure rates [13]. Group 3: Market Entry Strategies - Automotive companies are entering the robotics field through self-research and investment, reflecting strategic choices to address industry cycles and capture new growth opportunities [15]. - The differentiation in strategies has led to the emergence of two camps: the "self-research faction" focusing on building technology ecosystems and the "investment faction" aiming for rapid positioning through acquisitions [15][19]. Group 4: Talent Migration - The talent flow between the automotive and robotics industries is reshaping the human resource landscape, with many former automotive engineers transitioning to robotics roles [21]. - The emergence of startups led by automotive veterans is contributing to the evolution of the robotics sector, with many leveraging their automotive experience to innovate in robotics [23][29]. Group 5: Industry Restructuring - The entry of automotive companies into robotics is causing a deep restructuring of the robotics supply chain, with technology and materials being repurposed across sectors [37]. - The integration of automotive standards into robotics is raising industry entry barriers and redefining value distribution within the manufacturing ecosystem [39]. Group 6: Future Challenges - Despite the promising outlook, the robotics strategies of automotive companies face significant challenges, including high production costs and the need for technological breakthroughs in humanoid capabilities [42][44]. - The cultural clash between traditional automotive management practices and the agile development required in robotics is creating operational inefficiencies [46].

Core Insights - The production rhythm of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus is becoming clearer, with significant developments from major players like Figure, NVIDIA, Huawei, Yushun, and Zhiyuan, indicating a potential acceleration in the humanoid robot industry, with 2025 expected to be a pivotal year for industry explosion [1][4]. Market Performance - The Guosen Humanoid Robot Index rose by 5.99% during the week of April 21-25, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.61 percentage points and the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.43 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 12.9% [2]. - Notable stock performances include: - Top Group up 9.29% - Sanhua Intelligent Control up 5.69% - Zhongding Sealing Parts up 4.4% - Yinlun up 7.01% - Beite Technology up 17.04% - Shuanglin Shares up 16.53% - Best up 3.46% - Xiangxin Technology up 10.36% - Shuanghuan Transmission up 7.61% - Slin up 21.78% - Haoneng up 16.01% - Jingzhuan Technology up 5.2% - Landai Technology up 7% - Lingyun up 8.52% - Xusheng Group up 6.14% - Zhaomin Technology up 41.44% - Aikodi up 10.19% - Junsheng Electronics up 6.35% - Zhenghe Industrial up 11.94% - Meili Technology up 5.31% [2]. Industry Dynamics - Tesla's Q1 2025 update showcased the trial production line for the Optimus humanoid robot, with plans to produce thousands of units by the end of 2025 and a target of one million units annually by 2029-2030 [3]. - Tesla is conducting large-scale recruitment for its robotics division [3]. - The Xiaopeng Iron robot made its debut at the Shanghai Auto Show [3]. - The first Embodied Intelligent Robot Sports Games were inaugurated in Wuxi [3]. - Zhiyuan launched a one-stop development platform for embodied intelligence, Genie Studio, and an open-source simulation evaluation tool, Genie SimBenchmark [3]. - Humanoid robots are entering the power grid construction sector [3]. - A platform for key core components and engineering innovation services for humanoid robots was launched in Hangzhou [3]. - The Kepler K2 "Wasp" completed practical training at SAIC General [3]. - Government initiatives include the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission promoting strategic emerging industries and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology implementing "Robot+" actions [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the assembly segment include Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control; in the reducer segment, Shuanghuan Transmission and Jingzhuan Technology; other related companies include Yinlun, Junsheng Electronics, Ruihu Mould, Aikodi, and Meili Technology [5].