说起亚马逊，就是从零到英雄的典型。1994 年，杰夫・贝索斯在美国华盛顿州一个不起眼的角落起步，本来只想卖书，没想到一步步成了电商界扛把 子。网站一上线订单就不停来，1995 年正式开张，第一年就卖出几万本书。 贝索斯眼光毒，很快从书扩展到音乐视频等，1997 年直接上市，股价蹭蹭涨，募集了五千四百万美元，公司估值一下就上去了。 转眼二零零零年，亚马逊推出第三方卖家平台，这招真高明，平台一下热闹起来。用户下单方便，卖家也多，生态直接活了。二零零五年推出Prime 会员 服务，每年交钱就能免费两日达，在当时是新鲜事，很快吸了上百万会员。 贝索斯后来总结，问题出在投资不足和本土化不充分。美国管理者不信任中国团队，不授权，决策总是慢半拍，这也是刘强东说的亚马逊核心弱点。再加 上中国电商市场变化快，阿里京东拼多多三足鼎立，亚马逊的开放模式让用户觉得信息过载，物流价格高，Prime 收费模式也水土不服，退出成了必然。 二零一九年七月十八日，亚马逊中国网站停运，第三方卖家服务关停，只保留了 AWS 云和全球开店业务。 退出中国后，亚马逊把资源倾斜到了印度和云服务上。AWS 云业务通过合作稳住了中国市场，全球开店业务也帮了 ...

Group 1 - Leaders are not just making decisions; they are placing bets, and understanding different types of uncertainty is crucial for effective decision-making [2][3] - There are two types of uncertainty: cognitive uncertainty, which can be reduced by gathering more information, and stochastic uncertainty, which is driven by randomness and cannot be changed by data [3] - Companies like Netflix successfully navigated cognitive uncertainty by testing new services and optimizing based on real-time feedback rather than rushing into full-scale changes [4] Group 2 - The "special case" bias leads leaders to overestimate their unique situations, ignoring lessons from others, which can result in significant losses [5][6] - Target's failure in Canada exemplifies the dangers of ignoring past experiences, resulting in a $2 billion loss and withdrawal from the market [6] - In contrast, IKEA's cautious approach in India, involving extensive preparation and local adaptation, has supported its long-term growth [6] Group 3 - Adopting a portfolio thinking approach, where multiple small-scale bets are placed, can mitigate risks and enhance learning in uncertain environments [7] - Amazon exemplifies this strategy through its parallel experimentation across various projects, leading to both successes and failures, but ultimately fostering innovation [7] - Research from McKinsey indicates that companies employing a portfolio innovation strategy outperform their peers in growth and investment returns, even during market volatility [7] Group 4 - The best leaders do not aim for perfect predictions but instead build systems to adapt to changes and learn from them [8] - Recognizing different types of uncertainty and incorporating flexibility into decision-making allows companies to shift from passive responses to proactive strategies [8] - Success belongs to those who make informed bets rather than those who gamble recklessly [8]